8th INNING WEIRDNESS

Who Has the Better September Offense: Giants or Diamondbacks?

2011-08-22T01:00:00.001-07:00

This might seem like a ridiculous question. The Giants are a horrible offensive team, while the Diamondbacks have Justin Upton and 10 other guys that can hit 450 foot home runs. The Giants team wRC+ is 79, while Arizona is at 93. But a closer look at the individual parts that will make up both lineups in the final month of the season reveals that there potentially isn't much of a gap.

San Francisco's ideal lineup would include a healthy Carlos Beltran and Brandon Belt playing, either at 1st base or in left field. Mike Fontenot gets the nod over Tejada and Cabrera at shortstop. The only decision is whether to play Belt at first base and Ross in the outfield, or Huff at first and Belt in left field. I went with Ross. Here's the lineup and their 2011 wRC+:

Ross - 96
Schierholtz - 105
Beltran - 145
Sandoval - 132
Fontenot - 89
Keppinger - 102
Belt - 91 (before his 4 hit game on Sunday)
Whiteside - 74

Now here is Arizona's:

Parra - 103
Young - 95
Upton - 147
Roberts - 114
Bloomquist - 76
Johnson - 89
Goldschmidt - 132
Montero - 107

Let's remove Goldschmidt and Belt for a moment. They both have a small amount of plate appearances, and I am pretty confident in saying Belt is the better hitter. That's an advantage for the Giants. But let's pretend it's even, and look at the rest of the lineup. Looks pretty even as well.

This is all dependent, of course, on the health of Carlos Beltran. If he isn't part of that San Francisco lineup, it changes everything. And just because the Giants might be as good as the Diamondbacks or possibly have an edge offensively doesn't mean they'll perform better, especially in the short period of a month.

Cap of the tip to Curse of Benitez for his close reading of Baseball Rulebook, Page 1, invaluable insight that guided my work and made this post possible.

Facts and Statisticinos About Tomorrow's Starting Pitcher

2011-08-20T00:55:00.000-07:00

Check this out, loyal readers. Madison Bumgarner turned 22 this August, meaning his official age for the 2011 season is 21 (he was 21 on June 30, the halfway point of the season). He is having an historically great season for a pitcher his age, especially in the DIPS department. He's in his first full season, and he already has better command of the strike zone than his teammates Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum right now. Lincecum and Cain already had the "stuff" when they arrived in the majors; they had to add some quality pitches and "learn how to pitch" to become the aces they've been for several years. Bumgarner has a certain amount of "stuff"; he also seems to already have a great idea of "how to pitch". His K/BB ratio is 3rd best all time for a pitcher his age in a single season, and his placement barely changes if you use age 22 as the qualifier instead. Notice that the closest pitcher in recent memory is Brett Anderson, and he's not even that close. The only recent pitchers with K/BB over 3.00 on that list are Anderson and King Felix. Madison Bumgarner right now is doing something pretty unique. Imagine what kind of pitcher he could be in 2 or 3 years. Should we expect a development in either his stuff or his overall pitching ability?

Perhaps not. Every pitcher develops differently, and Bumgarner now could be close to the finished product. Maybe he never has another 2.60 FIP season. He could still be an excellent pitcher. Perhaps the improvement occurs in his ability to prevent weak contact. His .330 BABIP is very high and a product of bad luck and poor defense, but maybe part of it is attributable to his skill or approach. There could be a regression in his home run prevention, or even his strikeouts and walks.

But is that what we should expect? No. It's only fair and normal to think that he will get better in some respect. Which is exciting. And scary.

Much Better: Hall DFA'd, Burriss Sent Down

2011-07-28T12:34:00.000-07:00

Okay, Pat Burrell was not released. Bill Hall was. And Brandon Belt was not sent to AAA. Emmanuel Burriss was. This is good news, because these moves are exactly what the Giants should have done. But that blatant error on the part of CSN made me write a rant post that now looks kind of dumb.

You can still read it here if you like.

A lot of it still applies. There's stuff about Beltran, and while Belt hasn't been sent down, we heard today that the Giants envision him in a role similar to that of Travis Ishikawa last season. In other words, Brandon Belt will mostly be a pinch hitter/defensive replacement. And Huff is still starting. Which is terrible. So that rant still applies. Also, ALEX HINSHAW?

I don't know about you but I haven't been this excited for a game since Opening Day. I'll say Carlos Beltran goes 2-for-4 with 2 singles and 9 RBIs. Oh and he'll also make the pitcher balk. That talented.

Too Much to Handle

2011-07-27T19:26:00.000-07:00

What a freakin' rollercoaster. I don't like rollercoasters. They make me throw up. I can't know this because I've never been on a rollercoaster, but I'd like to think I'd throw up if I ever got on one. That's how I avoid them. And recent events are confirming my worries.

Let's start at the beginning.

The Giants acquired Carlos Beltran. You know that. What you may not know is how it all went down. The Giants traded Gary Brown. Damnit, I thought they could get him without giving up a top prospect. Wait, they're giving up Zack Wheeler. No! Wheeler's even better. They're trading Wheeler and Brown. YOU HAVE GOT TO BE FUCKING SHITTING ME. Oops, they're just giving up Wheeler. Okay...I hate whoever put that rumor out there. It's very possible that the Giants are giving up Wheeler, Eric Surkamp, and Francisco Peguero for Beltran. Dead. Wait, the Giants may be getting more than just Beltran. OMG REYES?! Shutup, that isn't happening. In the end, they gave up top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler in the deal, a fairly steep price to pay, and a price I wasn't willing to pay up until today. But I trust the Giants in evaluating pitching prospects and the thought of Beltran in the lineup is jus too exciting, so I'm okay with the deal.

That's not to say this isn't a huge risk. Beltran has a pretty significant injury history and is likely a two month rental. If the Giants don't win the World Series or if Beltran gets injured and Wheeler goes on to be a star, yikes. But I've decided it's a risk worth taking. Okay.

It get's announced that Beltran will play RF, with a Schierholtz/Ross platoon in LF. Small quibble, but Schierholtz is a very good right fielder, not to mention the skill it takes to play that position at AT&T park. And why is Schierholtz getting platooned? It doesn't really make sense to give one of your better players LESS playing time, but that will be a common theme later in this post.

Matt Cain is Matt Cain. Getting shit done.

Now there's the business of clearing a 40-man and 25-man roster spot for Beltran, who will be arriving and starting tomorrow. What's this? Brandon Belt is optioned down to AAA AGAIN and Pat Burrell is released to make room on the 40-man roster. Whoa.

At first glance, the real baffling move is to send Brandon Belt back to AAA. The Giants have one of the worst players in baseball this year playing Belt's position right now. There's that whole not playing your best players theme already. And it's not like they can blame this demotion on Belt's struggles at the plate, which was at least a somewhat legitimate excuse after his first demotion. Belt has barely played, but when he has, he's hit pretty well (no hits against Clayton Kershaw, one of the best lefties in the game, so who cares). And, wait a minute, Emmanuel Burriss is still on the Major League roster? That guy as an OPS+ of 41. But he's FAST!! Give me a break. The Giants don't really need him for depth - Keppinger, Fontenot, and Crawford all play SS. The case can even be made that Crawford should be sent down before Belt. For all of his great defense, he can't hit, and isn't going to get much playing time going forward.

But the decision to release Burrell might be more mind-numbingly dumb. It wasn't necessarily that surprising because Aaron Rowand is owed too much money to be cut, of course. But Pat Burrell had the 3rd best OPS on the team this season. He really can still hit. The worst part is that he did NOT need to be released to make room on the 40-man roster. Steve Edlefsen. Clayton Tanner. Alex Hinshaw (What the hell is this love affair with Hinshaw, who is AWFUL?). Bill Hall. These guys are all not very good. Why keep them? It's so un-sabermetric, but clubhouse chemistry is very important and we have every reason to believe that Pat Burrell was a big part of that. I'd love to think a team won't grab him or maybe he can retire and stay around the team. But as I pointed out, he's too good, and a smart team will pick him up.

UPDATE: CSN, who reported this news, has failed. Pat Burrell is not eligible to come off the DL and can't be released yet. Still, the point stands and I wouldn't be surprised if he's released soon.

UPDATE #2: Holy hell, Brandon Belt isn't being sent down and this post is mostly worthless. What the hell happened at CSN today?

I don't know. I haven't processed everything. There's an argument to made that the biggest upgrade this team could make was replacing Huff with Belt, and that isn't happening. And a good player and great clubhouse presence is being dumped in favor of much worse players. I love having Beltran on this team, but the Giants are doing their best to screw it up.

Matt Cain's Career Year

2011-07-24T20:47:00.000-07:00

You know how we feel about Matt Cain on this blog. If you don't, just read this. Carl Steward filled in for Andrew Baggarly on Friday night, and had a very surprising opinion of Cain's 2011 season.

There's a lot to say about Matt Cain's 2011 season. His strikeouts are up from the last 2 seasons, and his walks are down. He's getting more groundballs, and allowing fewer home runs. His success against lefties has been especially impressive, possibly due to an improvement in his changeup, which he throws mostly to LHBs. The percentages differ whether you use Baseball Info Solutions or Pitch F/X, but the conclusion is similar: Cain has evolved in his pitch selection (I am using the Pitch F/X numbers):

Career:

60.3% 4 seam fastballs, 12.8% changeups, 12.6% sliders, 11.6% curveballs, 2.1% 2 seam fastballs

2010:

58.5 % 4 seam fastballs, 16.0% changeups, 8.8% sliders, 13.4% curveballs, 2.8% 2 seam fastballs

2011:

48.3% 4 seam fastballs, 17.9% changeups, 11.7% silders, 13.5% curveballs, 8.2% 2 seam fastballs

Not only has Cain increased his usage of the changeup since 2010, but he started developing a 2 seamer, and is now using it a significant amount of the time. I can't faithfully conclude what these changes mean exactly, but the difference in approach could be a reasonable explanation for why Cain is enjoying a career year.

Cain has maintained low ERAs, BABIPs, and HR rates throughout his career while having only above average K and BB numbers, leading to two explanations from the statistical community: he's overrated and lucky, or he's the exception to the rule. Both views may now be outdated, because Cain's FIP this year is down to 2.87, almost a run better than his career average, and 15th best in the majors. His amazing 4.5% HR/FB this year means his xFIP isn't as kind, but at 3.51 it's still .75 runs better than his career mark. His BABIP and LOB% are normal for his career, in fact a bit worse, partly to blame for his Fangraphs-adjusted ERA (ERA-) being only just as good as the total for his career.

I've been paying attention to this development in Cain for some time, which is why Carl Steward's confounding article from Friday bothered me so much. I don't imagine Steward cares what Matt Cain's FIP is; someone who rates Ryan Vogelsong as the most effective pitcher for the Giants this year probably only knows wins and ERA. Yet Cain's ERA is lower than it was last year. None of what Steward wrote really made sense. He described some kind of weird pattern of Cain pitching well in one start and then poorly in the next, something I haven't noticed nor what the record suggests. It could just be a case of looking at the past with...whatever the hell that metaphor is.

"He hasn't been horrible, he just hasn't been the Cain everybody saw in 2010."

That's unfair, and completely wrong. And so is Steward's line about Cain needing to become the rotation's "horse" again. I don't love that term, but it does describe part of Matt Cain's profile: he has never been hurt, and he pitches many innings each year. He can be counted on. Steward would have you believe that he has not been as reliable this season. Meanwhile Cain leads the staff in inning pitched, and he's been excellent at going deep into games. Lincecum and Vogelsong (Vogelsong in far fewer starts) have both failed to get past the 6th inning in 5 starts this season. Bumgarner hasn't gone past the 6th inning 4 times. Cain, reliable as ever, has only failed this criteria once, April 20th in Colorado. Very equine of him.

Now stop saying mean things about Matthew Thomas Cain.

CIN 10, SF 2: Lincecum Cold Streak Continues

2011-06-11T14:52:00.000-07:00

That's now 3 iffy starts in a row for Tim Lincecum and today's was the worst. After striking out the first batter of the game, he struck out no more, walked 4, and gave up 7 earned runs in 4 innings. And just 36 of his 73 pitches were strikes. Yikes. Many, including the brilliant FOX broadcasters, are speculating that Lincecum's complete game, 133 pitch outing against the A's is the reason for the recent struggles. But I don't buy that one start is gonna mess with Lincecum and cause him fatigue, especially because it's not like he hasn't thrown a lot of pitches before. With him, there's really no concern that he won't figure it out; he's a great pitcher who has gone through struggles before, most notably August of last season. But it'd be nice if he figured it out soon because this offense can't afford for the pitching to be anything less than perfect.

Speaking of the offense, that's going to be rough to watch for a while. It's been beaten to death, but it's really amazing that the Giants have not only been hit by a ton of injuries, but they've been injuries to very important players. As Grant at McCovey Chronicles pointed out, the entire Opening Day starting infield, with the exception of Miguel Tejada, is out right now. Posey, Belt, Sanchez, Sandoval. That's UNBELIEVABLE. I mean, it's not too great when Andres Torres is your best player on offense by a pretty large margin. The only glimmer of hope is that the offense really can't get too much worse (knock on wood), and they are still in first place. Pablo Sandoval may not be the same player he was at the beginning of the year when he comes back, but he's still better than Tejada. Brandon Belt isn't too far away from returning. Maybe Bruce Bochy will realize that Pat Burrell should be getting more starts at the expense of Aaron Rowand, who is again terrible. Things should get better, but it's gonna be ugly for a while.

Also, Burriss and Tejada hitting 1-2 in the lineup? Hahah, I guess Bochy never figured out what OBP is.

Draft Reaction: Giants Select SS Joe Panik, RHP Kyle Crick

2011-06-06T20:05:00.000-07:00

The Giants had two picks on the first day of the MLB Draft - one in the 1st, and one in the supplemental round - and used them on a college SS and a powerful high school RHP.

Here's a scouting report for St. John's SS Joe Panik from Keith Law (Insider Only):

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19119/joe-panik

And here's a more optimistic report from John Sickels of SBNation:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/6/6/2210519/2011-mlb-draft-tracker-results-giants-snag-infielder-panik

I do not like the Joe Panik pick. He put up good numbers (.398/.509/.642) in college, but when it comes to draft prospects, stats usually don't matter as much as tools. He supposedly has a weak arm, may need to move to 2B, and doesn't have much power. And if you listen to most scouts, the Giants made a major reach and probably could have selected him with the 49th pick in the supplemental round. I don't like criticizing the Giants when it comes to the draft because they've been pretty freakin' successful in that department recently, but Panik is the type of low upside, limited power hitter the Giants always seem to go for. If you can't read Law's report, he calls Panik a likely utility infielder. Baseball America called the pick the "first truly off-the-board pick of the night" and compare him to Freddy Sanchez. Not really what I'd like from my first round pick.

My main issue with the Giants is that it seems like they doubt their ability to develop raw hitters, so they take safe players like Panik instead of somewhat risky players with more star potential. And then they decide to sign guys like Aaron Rowand and Aubrey Huff to supply the power in the lineup. That's worked pretty well. Not. You may point to guys like Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Belt as hitters that have come through the Giants' minor league system and had success. I'd argue that Posey didn't need much development, Sandoval was signed on the international market, and Belt may be the exception to rule, assuming he pans out like we all think he will. Gary Brown (a pick I hated, so maybe you can call me an idiot in a year or so) is tearing up the minors right now, but his absolute ceiling is an All-Star leadoff man. I don't mean that to sound like a bad thing, but the Giants don't lack scrappy, high average hitters with speed as much as they do true middle of the order hitters. Maybe I'm being unreasonable; a good player is a good player. I suspect the Giants did prefer HS pitchers like Robert Stephenson and Joe Ross, who went slightly before the Giants picked. But with guys like Dillon Howard, Daniel Norris, and even someone like Travis Harrison on the board, Panik was still an overdraft. Maybe it has to do with my hatred of how the Giants deal with the draft and free agency. I've said it before: imagine Aaron Rowand not signing with the Giants, and the team using that $12 million every year on the draft. It's how it should be. The Giants played it too safe in my opinion and didn't get the best player on the board.

In the supplemental round, the Giants selected Sherman HS RHP Kyle Crick.

Here's another report from Keith Law (Insider Only):

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19102/kyle-crick

There were other available high school arms on the board I preferred, like Howard and Norris, although they probably had high price tags and I certainly liked the Crick pick better than Panik. Crick is 6'3", 220 lbs, so he's not very projectable but has the body of a typical power pitcher. His fastball sits 92-97, and according to Law he has an average changeup and average slider right now. There may be some question as to whether or not he can be a starting pitcher, but he has the potential to be a No. 2 or 3 starter. Mostly, I like the pick because it's not a huge overdraft and I always love pitching prospects. There's not really much else to say for Crick, who shouldn't be an especially tough sign out of high school.

Day 2 of the draft begins tomorrow. Let's hope for Josh Bell. Ha!

Ten Prospects to Watch

2011-05-15T18:41:00.000-07:00

This is not necessarily a list of the top 10 Giants' prospects. I'd probably consider most of them to be in the top 10, but it's more a list of guys that really intrigue me. Maybe Eric Surkamp is a little too high, maybe Heath Hembree shouldn't be on the list, and where the hell is Ehire Adrianza? I don't necessarily expect a ton of people to agree with me. But the draft is near, I'm thinking about prospects, and I wanted to write about some who are exciting me. Also of note: I decided not to include Brandon Belt because we already know he's Will Clark 2.0.

1. Zack Wheeler

Wheeler in the top spot doesn't need much explanation. As the Giants' top pick in the 2009 draft, he came in with the normal amount of hype a No. 6 overall pick usually gets and hasn't really done anything to make people skeptical. His first year in the minors was a bit of a disappointment, starting only 13 games and pitching 58.2 innings because of a finger injury. But coming into the year, many believed he was due for a breakout. Keith law scouted him and wrote this report in the offseason. Just the other day, Adam Foster of projectprospect.com was at Wheeler's start and was clearly impressed. Just check out his tweets from that day or look for his write-up on the start in the next couple of days. So far this season, Wheeler has a 3.66 ERA with 41 Ks in 32 IP. That's a K/9 of 11.5 and his K/BB ratio of 3.15, compared to last year's 1.84, is also encouraging. It's hard not to get excited about a top pitching prospect and all the reports suggest that Wheeler has legitimate No. 1 potential. Hopefully he can keep it up and earn a midseason promotion to Double-A.

2. Gary Brown

I hated the Gary Brown pick. A speedy centerfielder with supposedly no power or patience at the patience, and little upside? Ugh. But Brown's early results are hard to ignore. His stat line 36 games into the year is .367/.445/.513/.958. That on base percentage and slugging percentage seem to defy the knocks on him coming out of the draft. He'll never hit many home runs, but he has the potential to hit loads of doubles and triples into the gaps with his speed. That speed also helps Brown play excellent defense. As an advanced college hitter, dominating Single-A doesn't say much, but he should earn a Double-A promotion at some point this year if he keeps hitting like this. Considering how I originally felt about the pick, I'm pretty happy with how he's turned out so far.

3. Eric Surkamp

Surkamp probably has no business being No. 3 on a team's prospect list. His absolute ceiling is probably a No. 4 starter and he might be overachieving just a bit right now. But this list is of prospects who intrigue me. A guy who leads the minors in strikeouts and does it with an 89 mph fastball intrigues me big time. Although I've never seen him pitch, supposedly he's been able to striekout 56 batters in 38.1 innings with very good secondary stuff. That's probably pretty obvious because an 89 mph fastball isn't gonna miss any bats, but hey, it's still impressive. I mean his K/9 is 13.1! And he is unable to throw harder than 90 MPH!!! It's not like this is some fluke, either. In his 3 previous years in the minors, Surkamp never had a K/9 below 9.6. And his ERA is 1.88. Don't discount the fact that the Giants have someone above Single-A that could actually be a decent MLB starter someday. That is extremely important and makes Surkamp even more valuable than he'd normally be. Maybe it's because I have a soft spot for guys who can succeed with pitching rather than raw velocity, but I'm extremely excited to see how he develops.

4. Charlie Culberson

Culberson has had a somewhat rough start to the year, but he stays pretty high on this list due to his breakout year in 2010 and generally positive reviews from scouts after his AFL dominance. The Eastern League, a notoriously terrible league for hitters, has not treated Culberson well so far, obvious when you look at his .293/.333/.387/.720 line. He is not walking or slugging nearly enough. He's still young (22) and it's his first year in Double-A, so I'm not too worried. There is cause for concern, however, when you consider that 2010 was Culberson's only successful year in the minors so far. But scouts like Keith Law and Jason Grey of ESPN liked the swing and a 2B who can hit is always a nice prospect. So, here's to hoping 2010 wasn't a fluke.

5. Thomas Neal

It's always been a bit hard to analyze Thomas Neal, as most scouts seem to think he'll be nothing more than a solid regular, and Giants fans constantly overrate him. Most of the reason Neal is high on this list is because he's probably the closest thing to a powerful, patient hitter in the Giants' minor league system. Neal has had some impressive numbers (mainly his 1.010 OPS in 2009), convincing many fans that he was a legitimate top prospect. In 2010, after a promotion to Double-A, Neal finished with a .799 OPS, which isn't terrible in the Eastern League especially considering he started to heat up towards the end of the year, but it's not particularly special either. Add in the fact that he's only played 12 games in Fresno this season because of injuries (always an issue for Neal), and it's still hard to know what he can become. Seeing as I don't claim to be any kind of expert, I do defer to the opinions of scouts, and they haven't fully bought into Neal. But he is still just 23 and has always had power and patience at the plate. I want to believe, but I think we need Neal to play some more this year in order to judge him as a prospect. At the very least, he should be a serviceable major leaguer.

6. Francisco Peguero

Even worse than Neal having played just 12 games this year, Peguero has played in none. Knee surgery has kept him off the field so far, but Peguero's solid 2010 season (.329/.358/.488/.846) means he remains as one of the Giants' top prospects. There are a few concerns with Peguero, though. He's not extremely young, as a 22 (almost 23) year old who hasn't yet played a game above Single-A. Also, Peguero is very much a hacker. He drew just 18 walks all of last season, which means he'll always have to hit for a high average to be a factor on offense. Maybe he will continue to hit for high average, but prospects with no patience always make me nervous. Peguero is also extremely fast and has decent power. He certainly comes with questions but is also a very interesting prospect.

7. Jarrett Parker

If you don't know much about the Giants' minor league system, you may not even know who Jarrett Parker is. Well, he was actually the Giants' second round pick in the 2010 draft, and he's starting to show signs of becoming a good outfield prospect. Parker struggled early on, but has started to heat up in May, currently hitting .265/.386/.444/.830. The biggest plus is that downright sexy walk rate. You can see from the large difference between his AVG and OBP, that he walks a LOT. I love patience and you see so many young prospects who don't have it, so it's refreshing. I mean he's already walked more times (20) than Peguero did all last year (18). Right now he is striking out way too much (32 times in 31 games), but he is improving. Gobroks, who knows a ton about the draft and prospects in general (you can follow him on Twitter @Gobroks) actually thought Parker was a better prospect than Gary Brown at the time of the draft. That's an indication that he has a good amount of potential. Hopefully he builds on his May success.

8. Heath Hembree

Hembree is a relief pitching prospect in Single-A, so it might seem odd that he's on the list. But he interests me because he's someone with a lot of velocity on his fastball who could potentially move fast through the system and become a shutdown pitcher in the bullpen for the major league team for a while. Hembree, a fifth round pick in 2010, has had a lot of early success as San Jose's closer. 25 strikeouts in 15 innings and a 0.60 ERA is always nice, but it's not a huge sample size. Hembree did strikeout 22 batters in 11 innings in Rookie Ball last year, so his success isn't too unexpected. Mainly, Hembree has been mostly unhittable during the early part of his career, and I consider him to be the top relief pitching prospect in the system.

9. Ryan Verdugo

Verdugo is another guy rated highly because he's a SP prospect in Double-A, who's having success. What makes him even more intriguing is that up until this year he's been a reliever, but the Giants started his transition to a SP during the Arizona Fall League. So far, the results have been good. In 6 starts, Verdugo has a 3.03 ERA with 31 Ks in 29.2 innings. Not a large sample size at all, but Verdugo has always had good stuff and showed as much during the AFL. There's reason for optimism, and if he could give the Giants another SP prospect in the upper minors, that's huge.

10. Brandon Crawford

The Giants badly need a SS. Miguel Tejada sucks. Fontenot isn't the long-term either. Rarely are there good free agent options. In my mind, Brandon Crawford is the best shortstop option in the Giants' system. Crawford has always been great defensively and is probably major-league ready there right now. But his offense needs to progress. That seems to be a theme with Giants SS prospects, actually. It's why I rate Crawford ahead of Adrianza; I don't believe in Adrianza's offense at all and I believe in Crawford's a little bit. Crawford's problem is that he keeps getting injured. Just recently he's started rehabbing in Single-A and is soon scheduled to start his season in AAA. He's always been able to draw walks, so if he was able to hit for average just a bit more and play very good defense, he could be a pretty valuable major leaguer.

Feel free to comment with your disagreements, as I'm sure there are many. Also, on a semi-related note: the draft is coming up, so I hope to have some draft profiles, or at the very least a draft preview, so keep an eye out.

Why I Hate the Idea of Playoff Expansion

2011-04-25T18:16:00.001-07:00

In 1993, the Giants had one of the best seasons in their franchise's history. It was the first year of new ownership after Peter Magowan saved the team from moving to Florida, the first year for Dusty Baker as manager, and the first for newly acquired hometown hero Barry Bonds. The Giants won 103 games that season, but finished 2nd in the Western division to the Atlanta Braves. At that time there were only 2 playoff teams for each league, so the Giants missed out. That team is considered by many to be the best modern team to miss the playoffs. Partly because such a dominant team as those Giants missed out on the playoffs, Major League Baseball changed the division and playoff format. Now there were 3 divisions, and the 2nd place team with the best record would also make the playoffs as a wild card team. This is the system we have today. There are a few problems with it; it's possible to have 3 teams in 1 division all with better records than one of the division leaders, and because of that the teams with the best records don't always make the playoffs. But for the most part that doesn't happen.

The current system has taken care of what it set out to do. In 2001, the Mariners won 116 games, while the Athletics won 102. If not for the wild card, that impressive A's team would have missed the playoffs. In 1997, the Yankees had 96 wins, 2nd best in the American League, but they needed the wild card because Baltimore had 98 (the other division winners had 86 and 90 wins).

Let's look at that 1997 season in the context of the news we have heard of late, that Bud Selig is considering expanding the playoffs to 5 teams per league. The only ideas I've heard are these: 3 division winners, 2 wild cards (of the 2 best 2nd place teams), and a one game playoff between those 2 wild cards to determine the 4th spot, or: the same, except a 3 game playoff instead of just 1. Let's imagine this rule was in place in 1997. The 3 division winners in the AL would be Baltimore, Cleveland, and Seattle. The Yankees won 96 games, so they would be 1 wild card spot. The Anaheim Angels won 84 games, so they would be the 2nd wild card spot. Now the 96 win Yankees would have to face the 84 win Angels in a 1 game playoff to decide which gets to go on. Does that sound fair to you? We know that anything can happen in 1 game in baseball. That's why it's completely ridiculous to make a team with a 12 game advantage over another face elimination like that. I know one argument for this format is that it would make the division race meaningful. Baltimore and New York would be fighting to win the division so they wouldn't be that unfortunate wild card team. But no matter how hard each team fought to win the division, there's still a loser. One of those great teams is gonna have to face the barely above .500 Angels. The A's of 2001 would have had to face the 85 win Twins, a team 17 games back of them. In 2002, the eventual pennant winning wild card Giants would have had to face an Astros team that was 11 games back of them.

These are the extreme examples. Many years the theoretical 2nd wild card team was only 1 or 2 games behind the actual wild card winner. But the last 5 seasons in the AL, the wild card team has been 5, 6, 6, 8, and 6 games ahead of the theoretical 2nd. That's a pretty significant gap. The average gap for the AL during the wild card era is 6 games. For the NL it is 3.

The 1 game playoff is a nightmare. A 3 game series is not as bad, but I still hate it.

The reasons MLB would want to do this? Monetary, to be sure, although I question how much could really be gained from 1 more day of baseball. I understand the reality of baseball as a business (although I refuse to say that's all it is) but I'm confused by the people outside of MLB who argue for this expansion on the basis of "bringing in the casual fan" or "single game events like the NFL" as if that should be the concern of any lover of the game. I know it isn't for me. The single game event is nice when it occurs at the end of a season because 2 teams are tied. What makes Game 163 or Game 7 of a playoff series special is that they come after so much; it loses all of that when it is a planned event that both teams will see coming weeks away probably (it would be a blessing for one and a nuisance or worse for the other) . Manufactured drama is the last thing a sport as powerful as baseball needs.

I keep calling it playoff expansion. But this really isn't expanding the playoffs. A 1 game playoff is a little novelty game, a dumbshow before the real play, exactly what it's unfortunate and misguided proponents want from it (to attract the casual fan). Which makes the consequences (a great team is eliminated by a mediocre one) of such an ill advised, absurd game all the more unjust. Real expansion of the playoffs would be adding another round and giving the 2 best division winners a bye and having 6 teams from each league, which I don't like either because that's too many teams. Baseball used to be 2 leagues, 2 pennant winners, and a World Series between them. Sometimes the teams cared more about winning the pennant than winning the World Series. Then the 2 division system was introduced, with 2 playoff teams per league. Then the 3 divisions and the wild card. 8 total playoff teams doesn't feel like a lot, with the NBA allowing more than half the league into the postseason. I think baseball has reached that balance between knowing we are watching (most of the time) the best teams play for the trophy, while also enjoying the randomness and suspense that a playoff atmosphere brings.

Lincecum dominates Rockies, Sabean faces roster decisions

2011-04-19T11:38:00.000-07:00

It wasn't the most normal night in Colorado. Nate Schierholtz hit a Heraclean home run into the upper deck of Coors Field. Pablo Sandoval walked 3 times, seeing 17 pitches total and only swinging at 3 of them. What was somewhat normal was seeing Tim Lincecum pitch the way he did, beautifully summed up by Grant at McCoveyChronicles:

Lincecum’s ‘07 velocity + his ‘09 changeup + his ‘10 slider + a sprinkling of improved command = what you just watched.

It was a fun night for the Giants, beating the division leading Rockies. I'm not surprised by the number of people who have jumped on the "Rapril" (yes, that is what some Rockies fans are calling it) bandwagon, because it's natural, but one look at their schedule tells you a lot. Before last night's game, their opponent's combined winning percentage from the 2010 season was .440, and none of their opponents finished over .500 (the Giants 2011 opponents had a .495 winning percentage last year).

Cody Ross is rejoining the team, and any minute now we may know the fate of Brandon Belt. Surprisingly, I'm rather torn about this decision; Nothing about Belt's short time in the big leagues has me doubting his ability. He has shown that the two skills for which he is most lauded, patience at the plate and 1st base defense, are very real. Yet he hasn't been hitting the ball much at all. Some of this is bad luck (Aaron Rowand's great start is benefitting from the opposite kind of luck) but it is true that his power has disappeared since that impressive home run in Los Angeles. He also looks late on a lot of fastballs in the middle of the plate, and there have been quite a few groundouts to 2nd base. These are all things I believe Belt could fix up here. But just as we said he should be on the team because he could help them win, and it's only fair to apply that same urgency when he is struggling like this. What's most important for him (individually) is that he plays regularly.

The only possible players I see being sent down to make way for Ross are Ford or Belt. Rowand was the popular choice at the beginning of the season, and while it'd be foolish to believe he perform like this consistently, it's impossible to cut a player who is making that much money and hitting well to start the season. There's no way they send down Heracles after his home run yesterday. I'm not a big fan of Darren Ford at all, but he's a better bench player than Belt, not only because his skills (running, defense) are bench skills, but because there shouldn't be any concern about him getting consistent at bats as there is with Brandon Belt.

I'm not saying I want Belt sent down. Not at all. But I don't have the strong negative reaction towards it that might be expected. The service time advantage that the Giants could have by sending down Belt is also pretty attractive. All these factors tell me that sending Belt to AAA would not be a disaster. If Sabean and Bochy decide to stick with him and give him regular starts, I'd be ecstatic. It would be a great sign, for us and for him.

SF 5, ARI 3: Mota Good, Zito Baaaad

2011-04-16T21:36:00.000-07:00

Barry Zito only lasted 1 2/3 innings tonight after spraining his foot catching a bunt pop up. It remains to be seen whether Zito will make his next start or even go on the DL, but reports say he was walking on crutches after the game. Unfortunately, Zito probably wouldn't have lasted long either way because in the little time that he did pitch, he looked pretty terrible.

This is the first start of Zito's I've seen this year, so I am basing this assessment on an extremely small sample size, but considering his ERA was 5.56 coming into tonight, I think it's safe to assume he hasn't been very good so far. The most shocking thing to me was the velocity on Zito's fastball. Obviously he's never thrown hard, but if I remember correctly, Zito's fastball velocity was around 86-88 at the start of last season. Tonight it was 82-84, with most of them closer to 82. Velocity is a very overrated aspect of pitching because pitchers can succeed with good command and movement on their pitches, but wow, an 82 mph fastball is just really, really slow. Considering he keeps losing 1-2 mph on the fastball every year, what is he going to have a 79 mph heater in 2 years? Obviously I'm exaggerating, but not many pitchers survive with a fastball that soft. Not only that, but his pitches weren't moving and he wasn't controlling his offspeed stuff at all.

I don't want to sound like an irrational Zito hater, because that's exactly the opposite of what I am. I still think Zito is one of the best 5th starters in baseball and better than a lot of No. 4s. I thought Bruce Jenkins' notion that Zito might be cut was beyond ludicrous. I scoff at those who think the Giants have a better option in the minors. I do feel bad for the guy. He's making $18 million a year but it can't be easy going through the amount of criticism he gets and it's not his fault that a team was stupid enough to give him that much money. And most importantly, I do realize I've personally only seen 1.2 innings of his work. He did have a pretty good start to the season after all, the 1st inning notwithstanding. But being a Zito apologist who kept thinking he could put together a season better than the year before, I can't pretend like I'm not a little concerned. He looked baaaaaaaad today.

Again, I refuse to react crazily to SSS(small sample size). Just an observation.

Anyway, the Giants did win this game, so I should point out the happy from today. Buster Posey hit a 2-run homer in the 1st and Freddy Sanchez drove in 3 runs with a double and a single. And Guillermo Mota absolutely saved the bullpen by coming in and allowing just 1 ER in 4 1/3 IP, the most of his career.

The Giants go for the sweep tomorrow against Barry Enright, who is one of those mediocre pitchers that always makes the Giants offense look bad. Bumgarner is pitching for the Giants, so it'll be interesting to see if he can put together his first quality start of the year.

LAD 6, SF 1: Kershaw Dominates Again

2011-04-11T23:00:00.000-07:00

This and this. And then tonight. All Clayton Kershaw does is dominate the Giants. In fact, he has now gone 23.2 innings without giving up a run to the Giants. But you know what? Kershaw does that to a lot of teams because he's one of the best young pitchers in all of baseball. He may not have the same track record, but he is the Dodgers' Tim Lincecum. And while the Giants may not have the best offense and some may want to blame the stupid rookie Brandon Belt for not getting a hit against one of the best lefties in the game, they just had trouble against a very, very good pitcher and probably will continue to have trouble with him for the next 10 years. My god he is impressive.

Madison Bumgarner has had a weird start to the season. Last week in San Diego, Bumgarner was actually looking pretty great through the first two innings before throwing over 40 pitches in the 3rd inning. And that 3rd inning was a bit unlucky. The Padres did what the Padres always do, annoy the hell out of you with long at-bats and bloop hits, and all of a sudden Bumgarner had allowed 3 runs in 3 innings and was out of the game. Today, he was again throwing pretty well. The first run scored when after Matt Kemp walked and stole second base, James Loney hit a liner that ricocheted off Freddy Sanchez's glove, scoring Kemp. Then came the 5th inning, when Rod Barajas led off with a homer. 2-0 Dodgers. After Rafael Furcal walked and advanced to 2nd on a single from Jamey Carroll, he stole 3rd base. However, the replays showed that Furcal was clearly out, so no runner should have been on 3rd. Furcal then scored on a single, and with runners on 1st and 2nd, Matt Kemp singled to left field and the ball went right under Pat Burrell's glove all the way to the wall, scoring both runners. After looking pretty sharp through 4 innings, Bumgarner's final line was: 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 Ks. Kind of a bizarre start to the season for Bumgarner so far.

A loss to the Dodgers is always frustrating, especially when the offense looks completely helpless. But let's all remember that this was the 10th game of the year. There are 162 games in a season, and if you are extremely stressed and concerned after 10 games, I feel bad for you and I don't know how you ever survive a baseball season. The Giants will go on winning streaks and plenty of losing streaks as well. It's what happens. Just because they are having a rough start doesn't mean they are a bad team in need of major changes. Brandon Belt needs to be sent back to the minors after 35 major league ABs? No. Bumgarner needs to work on his stuff in the minors after 2 bad starts? Please, stop. Just stop it.

2011 Opening Day Impressions

2011-03-31T20:23:00.000-07:00

Logic seems to say that it's wise not to think much of anything that happens on Opening Day. Here are just a few observations, without many conclusions, from today's loss against the Dodgers:

There were some disappointing moments in today's game, and only a few encouraging ones, but that will happen when you face Clayton Kershaw at his best. Remember this? Brandon Belt's placement on the big league roster was the big story yesterday, and in my mind he was the most impressive Giants position player today. We finally got to see him in a big league game of meaning, and he didn't look overwhelmed at all. He had some of the best at bats against an extremely difficult left handed pitcher. His first hit wasn't conventional, but he showed his characteristic patience at the plate, drawing a walk and making LA pitchers throw a total of 27 pitches, the most of an Giant (Andres Torres 2nd with 24, no one else above 17). I don't know what the ESPN guys were talking about in his final at bat. Something about a slow minor league bat? Huh? I agree with Dave Cameron that Orel Hershiser offered some good inside baseball knowledge, but there were strange moments during the broadcast. Why the announcers became obsessed with Andres Torres swinging on 2-0 is beyond me. Also, I saw more behind the backstop camera views in this game then I've ever seen, when it was completely unnecessary.

Lincecum wasn't his fully dominant self, but he was quite strong, and fell victim to bloop singles and poor defense. Burrell and Huff at the corner outfield spots is...interesting. Tejada looked okay on some routine plays, and then tried to do too much, something that shouldn't happen. Just make the easy plays. We warned you about Tejada. But we'll revisit that in a month or so if the shortstop position shows itself to actually be a problem. I hope it works out. Posey and Sandoval also tried to do too much, and it led to the first run of the game. This game may have been very different if the Giants had been smarter in that inning. But I also don't mind the aggressiveness and will to make a play.

For a moment I was sad that Lincecum got a loss, that he was 0-1 after tonight, and then I realized I was thinking about wins and losses.

Brandon Belt Makes the Cut

2011-03-30T16:59:00.001-07:00

I'll admit that I was pretty apathetic about the whole "Will Belt start the season in AAA or in the big leagues" thing. If he made the team, great. If he was sent back to AAA, fine, a little minor league seasoning wouldn't hurt and the Giants would probably be fine for a month or two without him. Well, today Belt made the cut, and I am very, very excited. If nothing else, there's always a lot of anticipation involved with a top prospect making their debut and thinking about that prospect carrying your favorite team for years to come. It's also pretty refreshing to see a team ignore all the arbitration clock crap. Don't get me wrong, that stuff is important, but it shouldn't affect putting your best team out on the field. The Giants thought Belt was ready, they wanted him on the team now, and they aren't worrying about how much more money he'll make in a few years.

Of course, as the Giants set their 25-man roster today, there were other roster moves made. To make room for Belt, the Giants designated Travis Ishikawa for assignment. That was no surprise as Ishikawa becomes sort of redundant and inferior with Belt on the roster. The interesting thing to see will happen in a few weeks when Cody Ross comes off the disabled list. If the Giants are rolling, Ross is probably staying on the bench, at least initially. But if Burrell struggles or maybe even Torres starts slowly, they might be the ones losing their starting spot. And who gets cut? Every Giants fan and their mother wants Rowand and his $24 million slary cut, but it could be Nate Schierholtz.

The last bullpen spot was given to Dan Runzler. I'm not sure what that means for his attempted transition into a starting pitcher, but it does mean that Ryan Vogelsong and Marc Kroon, both longshots to make the roster, are headed for the minors. Guillermo Mota was also given a bullpen spot, and one of he and Runzler is likely gone once Brian Wilson comes off the DL.

Here's what the final roster looks like:

Starting Lineup

Torres

F. Sanchez

Huff

Posey

Burrell

Sandoval

Belt

Tejada

Bench

DeRosa

Schierholtz

Fontenot

Whiteside

Rowand

Starting Rotation

Lincecum

J. Sanchez

Cain

Zito

Bumgarner

Bullpen

Ramirez

Mota

Runzler

Lopez

Affeldt

Casilla

Romo

I also wanted to do a small division preview type of thing. We have been absolutely terrible offseason bloggers, and we really have no excuse. But by tomorrow night we will be doing recaps for every game and hopefully featuring more content in general. I think the regular season and watching actual games motivates us to write. Anyway, even though this should've been done in a different, more comprehensive post, here are my thoughts on the division.

I have the Giants finishing in first place, and if I get anyone telling me a homer, I might kill myself. The Giants are simply the most complete team in a pretty weak division. But as we've outlined before, they do need a lot of things to go right, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Rockies or even the Dodgers *shudder* came out on top. The Rockies usually hit a lot, but I really only see 2 dangerous hitters in their lineup, Tulowitzki and Gonzalez. Their rotation is pretty solid, but nothing spectacular. I have them in second place. The Dodgers finish third, mostly because their offense could struggle to score runs and their staff is deep, but also not spectacular. The Padres don't have much going for them, but the Diamondbacks are terrible, so they'll finish in fourth place. The Diamondbacks are terrible. Fifth place. I'm not going to make any kind of World Series prediction because I don't want to pick against the Giants but I don't want to pick them either. There's my beautiful season preview.

Tomorrow is opening day. Opening day would be exciting enough, but it's Opening Day with the 2010 World Series Champion San Francisco Giants facing the enemy LA Dodgers. And Brandon Belt is making his debut. It doesn't get much better than that.

Jenkins on Zito: "Definitely Not Safe"

2011-03-01T23:25:00.000-08:00

Barry Zito took the mound for his first spring-training start on Monday and walked the ballpark. It wasn't exactly what the Giants had in mind, and here's a message to all those fans who have seen enough of Zito: He's walking a very fine line within the organization.

This beginning excerpt of Bruce Jenkins' article from Tuesday introduces the theme of his piece throughout: the front office is not happy with Barry Zito. The article caused a stir on Twitter last night among Giants fan, and this morning it has gone national. Jenkins goes on to write:

A source close to the team indicated Tuesday that there is "exasperation" with Zito, that his status as the No. 5 starter is "definitely not safe," and that the team would even consider buying out his expensive contract before Opening Day if that's what it takes to say farewell.

Well where to start? I don't know what Bruce or the source mean by "buying out", all contracts in baseball are guaranteed, so what I'm going to assume is being implied here is that the Giants would cut Zito. Jenkins' source is the only place we have heard of Zito possibly being cut, most likely because the idea is about as insane and ludicrous as things get.

Zito isn't a great pitcher. He hasn't been since 2002, maybe 2003. It was the Giants' inability to recognize this that led to the awful contract they gave him in 2007. With the Giants, he had a pretty terrible season in 2008, and has been average in all other seasons, never being hurt (an important fact to remember when we get to another point in the article), while being paid like an ace. An unfortunate situation, but one which most everyone has accepted has no solution. After all, what is the solution that Jenkins seems to imply the Giants are considering? That they will simply cut him from the roster. Well, this is stupid as hell, because then they would still be paying the entirety of the contract. There's only one way that would maybe be the thing to do, and that would be if Zito was a terrible pitcher, which seems to be precisely the fallacy Jenkins is believing.

...and he wouldn't be anywhere near the Giants' roster this spring were it not for his contract: $18.5 million owed this season, another $39 million through 2013 and a $7 million buyout for 2014.

I saw a tweet this morning from a Yankees fan, saying that if the Giants cut Zito, he'd be worth a look at the league minimum. Our perception of Zito and the fact of him being so overpayed has led a lot of people to think he is somehow worthless. Know this: if Zito were to be on the open market today, he'd probably be offered half of what he's being payed now per year. That's a lot of money, but league average pitchers that you can count on to start every game of the season cost money. The league minimum contracts are reserved for oft-injured pitchers who had some good seasons but have been terrible recently (the Yankees have a bunch right now). The Giants have one of those guys in fact. His name is Jeff Suppan.

Meanwhile, the Giants will take a close look at 16-year veteran Jeff Suppan (3 shutout innings against Milwaukee on Monday), Class AA left-hander Clayton Tanner and other options for the No. 5 slot.

It's bad enough to imagine Suppan pitching at all this season; him as the 5th starter would be as bad as Todd Wellemeyer last year; now imagine cutting Zito, still paying Zito, and having Suppan replace him, while paying Suppan $1 million. That's exactly what Jenkins is suggesting the Giants are thinking of. I refuse to believe it.

...there's a healthy sense of urgency in the world champions' camp. They didn't clinch a postseason berth until the final game of the 2010 season, and they realize that just a single loss - something that could be avoided - could cost them a chance to repeat this year.

The Giants did win the World Series last year, and I would hope their sense of urgency is enough that they know to use their best pitchers. It's important to note that their is a player on the Giants with a large contract who could be cut: Aaron Rowand. Rowand, unlike Zito, does absolutely nothing for the team. His status is just as a roster spot occupier.

This last excerpt from the piece is where I really take issue with Jenkins:

There is concern that Zito hasn't been properly diligent in maintaining his physical conditioning...

Concern from who? The source (and therefore the Giants)? Yourself? People in general? I've never heard of any complaints about Zito's work ethic, and as mentioned before, he has never had injury trouble. "There is concern" sounds like a version of that infamous cable news phrase "some people say".

Pablo Sandoval and the 2011 Giants Offense

2011-02-06T11:20:00.000-08:00

A few weeks ago, the Giants re-signed Guillermo Mota to a minor league deal. Lou Piniella is joining the organization as a consultant. Oh, and Jeff Suppan signed a minor league contract as well. Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean got their options for 2012 picked up. And just yesterday, the team gave another one of those minor league pacts to Mexican Pacific League star Justin Christian. None of this news has been blogged about on this site because we suck (And really, who cares about Jeff Suppan?). Sorry about the lack of Justin Christian analysis, though. I guess I've gotten caught up in following the pathetic seasons of the 49ers and Kings and put the Giants on the back burner, which is absolutely shameful. But FanFest was yesterday, and while it's a chaotic event that I will never ever attend again, it's pretty cool that it was so crowded with fans that the team had to tell people to STOP coming. So, I'm starting to get pumped up for baseball to start again.

Not to mention that the subject of this post, Pablo Sandoval, has started a Twitter account and it's been great. Whether it's pictures he's posted, tweets explaining his intense workout regimen, or visual accounts from various people, all reports are that Pablo looks great and has lost about 30 pounds of fat while adding lean muscle. This is HUGE news.

Something lost in all of the post-World Series win euphoria has been the fact that the Giants did not have a very good offense in 2010 and haven't really done anything to improve it, which means improvements will have to come from within. Maybe that will come from top prospect Brandon Belt, but he's not likely to start the season with the team and not all rookies can impact a team like Buster Posey did. Speaking of Posey, having him for a full season should help, but there's no guarantee he'll outperform his pretty great 2010 numbers. Miguel Tejada as an improvement over Edgar Renteria/Juan Uribe? It's quite likely that that is the opposite of an upgrade.

Let's consider a few more areas where the Giants may actually regress in 2011. Andres Torres is somewhat of an unknown, as he's really only had 1 full season of playing time. He had a great 2010 and was crucial to the team's success, but he struggled some later in the year, carrying just a .303 OBP over the second half of the season, which is not ideal production from your leadoff hitter. Aubrey Huff was perhaps the Giants' offensive MVP in 2010 and they are expecting that he'll be an extremely valuable part of the offense in 2011, which is a little scary. Huff is another valuable piece from 2010 who we can expect some regression from in 2011. Just one year removed from having an OPS+ of just 81, it's entirely possible his 2011 production won't approach his 138 OPS+ of 2010. After August 1st, Huff batted just .255/.360/.426 for the rest of the season. That's not bad, and maybe it was just a late-season slump, but considering Huff's inconsistency over the last few years, it's still cause for concern. Huff is 34 and if the later part of 2010 represented a true regression, it's not going to be good enough for the middle of the order hitter the Giants are expecting him to be. We also need to remember that despite his postseason heroics, Cody Ross had a regular season OPS+ of just 93 in 2010. Pat Burrell is getting older and his 2010 with the Giants may have been somewhat of a fluke, considering his 2009 and 2010 with the Rays. I've already mentioned how maybe expectations for Buster Posey and Brandon Belt should be tempered. Basically, this offense doesn't seem to have much upside for improvement.

Enter Pablo Sandoval, the Giants' best chance at a significantly improved offense. Fans have been begging Sandoval to lose weight for a long time now and the Giants even threatened him with a demotion to the minors if he didn't get in shape. I've never bought into the idea that losing lots of weight was going to help Pablo's offense. Sure, it'd help with his agility and range, which would improve his defense, but he's always been a big guy and his weight didn't seem to affect him at all in 2009. But losing weight and adding muscle can't HURT his offense and the most exciting part about this is the dedication he seems to be showing. If you believe Sandoval, he's been working out 6 times a week, twice a day for a couple of months now, while laying off the soda and chips. And not only is he working out, but he's been talking to Barry Bonds about improving his plate discipline, which was the real reason for his struggles at the plate. If this news doesn't get you really excited, I don't know what does. So soon people forget that Pablo Sandoval posted an OPS+ of 144 in his first full major league season, at the age of 22. He struggled in 2010, posting an OPS+ of 95 and batting just .268/.323/.409, but that happens to young players. At age 24, Sandoval is still extremely young and has a ton of time to get back to how he was playing a year ago. As a fan, you have to at least appreciate that he looks willing to do whatever he has to do to reach his potential. And most importantly, if all of this offseason work pays dividends on the diamond, the Giants could be adding a legitimate middle of the order bat without even making a transaction.

I guess the post turned into more of a depressing, worst-case-scenario look at the Giants' offense instead of an optimistic Pablo Sandoval commentary. Or maybe it can be both. That's just it, as an objective fan, I look at the team and I worry about that offense a little bit. Remember, the Giants barely got into the playoffs despite GREAT pitching. The offense can't afford to get any worse. So Pablo Sandoval will be huge in 2011. In all likelihood, he won't get back to being one of the league's best hitters in just one year, but his progress and commitment are extremely exciting. And if he does return to form, the Giants could have a very good offense for a long time. Think about a Posey-Sandoval-Belt heart of the order for a second. It's a wonderful thought.

Kevin Brown: More Than A Borderline Hall of Famer

2011-01-05T16:16:00.001-08:00

If we were to define the previous era of baseball as having begun around 1986 and ending around 2006, who would we say are the best pitchers of that era? 4 names immediately jump to the front: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez. In fact, this era, which is most notable for the offensive numbers its hitters put up, is probably rare in that it has 4 all time great pitchers who were in their prime and pitching at an amazingly dominant level, all at the same time. All 4 are not only Hall of Famers, but candidates for inclusion in the "top 10 pitchers ever" list (Clemens and Johnson are easily on that list, in my opinion). This got me thinking: what other pitchers from the "Clemens era" are Hall of Famers? The other 2 Atlanta pitchers, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, came to mind. So did Curt Schilling, who I wrote on last week. And so did Kevin Brown. In my Schilling post, I didn't really elaborate on the Kevin Brown comparison, and even though I considered him a possible Hall of Famer, I can't deny that it just didn't feel like Brown was as good those 7 other pitchers. Maybe there were only 7 Hall of Fame pitchers from the Clemens generation.

But that's ridiculous. After all, other eras in baseball have had more Hall of Famers, and they never had the abundance of top tier greatness that is Clemens-Johnson-Maddux-Pedro. There's plenty of room in the Hall for pitchers, in fact, there need to be more. So the the only question now is whether Brown is qualified for the Hall. The Schilling comparison helps, but a greater in depth look is needed.

Brown pitched for 19 seasons, totally 3,256 innings with a 127 ERA+. That combination is above the Hall of Fame line in my opinion, but admittedly towards the low end (if we forget about Catfish Hunter). He had a couple good seasons in '89 and '90 with Texas, then a bad year in 1991. In 1992, Brown had what would be his career highs in innings pitched and wins (265, 21). A few more average-good seasons followed. In 1996, his phase of dominance began, and it was probably his best year as a pitcher. He threw 233 innings with a historic ERA+ of 217, 20th best in baseball history. Beginning that year, Brown threw 230 or more innings for 5 straight seasons, a total of 1,209 innings that was the most in all of baseball for that stretch. And he did it while posting an ERA+ of 165. Tom Seaver, considered by many to be the best pitcher in the history of the National League, posted a 154 ERA+ in his best 5 year stretch (1969-1973).

A few more statistics to understand Brown's prime of his career: he ended up with 5 seasons qualifying for the ERA title and achieving an ERA+ of 150 or better. Only 13 other players in MLB history (1876-2010) have done that:

Lefty Grove (11 seasons)
Roger Clemens (9)
Greg Maddux (9)
Walter Johnson (8)
Randy Johnson (8)
Christy Mathewson (7)
Pedro Martinez (6)
Pete Alexander (6)
Steve Carlton (5)
Ed Walsh (5)
Mordecai Brown (5)
Cy Young (5)
Kid Nichols (5)

There's the big 4 of the Clemens era again. And every other pitcher on the list is not only a Hall of Famer, but considered by baseball writers to be in the top echelon of pitchers.

Side note: How great was Lefty Grove? My goodness...

From 1993 to 2000, Brown had a total of 55.4 fWAR, or, nearly 6.2 fWAR per season. His fWAR career total is 77.2. rWAR is less kind to him, but he is still in the range for a potential Hall member.

Brown probably should have won 2 Cy Young awards in his career. He placed 2nd in Cy Young voting in 1996, 3rd in 1998, losing to John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, but you could argue he was the best pitcher in the NL both seasons. fWAR loves his 1998 season, giving him a whopping 9.3 wins above replacement.

Is Brown one of the best pitchers of all time, like most of those other pitchers I've mentioned? No, he isn't. But when you look at these statistics, and see his presence among them, it distinguishes him. He's not just a guy with a good career ERA+ and a lot of innings pitched. He's the owner of one of the more dominant stretches of pitching we've ever seen. And sadly, most people will never realize it. Maybe because he was a surly guy (that's what I hear, but I don't care). Maybe because he's incorrectly viewed as a huge contract bust. Maybe because he didn't pitch well for the Yankees at 40 years old? Either way nobody seems to care about him. That's really the only reason why I became semi-obsessed with his Hall case.

A word on Brown's contract: It didn't turn out great, but it wasn't a disaster at all. He provided LA with 2.5 seasons of great pitching, with injuries in the middle years. This also got me thinking: what is a "bad" contract anyway? Do we define it as when a team gets very little value out of a player while paying a lot of money, or when they simply overpay for a player who clearly wouldn't deliver? I'm thinking especially of what happened in the 2006-2007 offseason, when the Giants payed Barry Zito a ton of money for a lot of years, while the Dodgers signed former Giant Jason Schmidt for a 3 year, $45 million deal. Zito has pitched every season so far, while Schmidt pitched a grand total of 42 innings in LA. Which deal was "worse"? Zito is overpayed, but at least he has been somewhat useful to the Giants. Schmidt was a complete waste. But how do you judge the signing? Can you blame LA for not knowing that Schmidt would injure himself like that? A post for another day.

After that 5 year period, Brown had a good injury shortened season for the Dodgers in 2001, then threw only 63 in 2002 while not pitching well. He had a great comeback in 2003 at the age of 38, going over 200 innings for the 9th and final time in his career, while matching his 2nd highest ERA+ mark at 169. He then went to the Yankees, where he struggled with more injuries and was at times an above average starter, at other times terrible. His last season was 2005.

I was happy that Bert Blyleven got enough votes to be inducted today. But Kevin Brown fell off the ballot for good, with only 12/581 votes. I wouldn't argue that Brown had a better career than Blyleven; Bert pitched many great innings and lasted a long time. Part of his greatness was that durability, which his inane detractors call "stat compiling". But I ask the rational group of baseball minds that campaigned so hard for Blyleven: was he ever as dominant as Brown was, for as long as Brown was? I don't think so. Kevin Brown will never get into the Hall of Fame, and he's more than deserving.

Note: I know I used ERA+ a lot in this article. ERA is not perfect, but neither are the DIP stats, and ERA (or just runs allowed) becomes a more legitimate stat when you are looking at a long career. Also, I think the adjustment that ERA+ uses is key for Brown in particular, because he was pitching in one of the biggest offensive eras ever. Look, I am NOT saying that Brown was better than Bob Gibson (my favorite pitcher who I never saw), but the fact is their career ERA+ numbers are separated by ONE point.

Random Winter Thoughts: Schilling and Brown, Sabathia and Cain

2010-12-27T16:58:00.000-08:00

Last week, I tweeted that if voters plan to cast a Hall of Fame ballot for Curt Schilling when he is eligible, they should do the same for Kevin Brown this year. Thanks to a retweet by the great Keith Law, I got a lot of responses to this. Most of them cited the fact that Schilling had many impressive postseasons, memorably beating the Yankees with both the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox (it seemed to be that not only was his playoff performance stellar, but the fact that it came against the Yankees made it even more so, a sentiment that really makes me cringe). I don't think that postseason performance should factor much into Hall of Fame worthiness. I especially don't think a great pitcher should be penalized because of poor postseason starts. But I can appreciate the position of giving credit to a pitcher for outstanding pitching in the games that matter most. However, this only applies to the Schilling/Brown situation if you believe that Curt Schilling is not already a Hall of Famer, independent of his playoff heroics. I think Schilling is a Hall of Famer just based on his regular season performance, and to my surprise, a lot of the people on Twitter did not. So I forgot about Brown almost immediately, and started thinking about Schilling.

I could understand keeping Curt Schilling out of the Hall of Fame if you believed in the idea of a "Small Hall", where only the most excellent players of all time would be. This concept is attractive, but unrealistic, because the Hall of Fame is what it already is. You can think that certain players don't belong there, but once they are in, the standards have somewhat changed. I don't think because Andre Dawson is in that every player who compares favorably to Andre Dawson should be in as well. But to some extent, the "if ___ is in, then ____ should be" is a valid argument. And there are a number of worse pitchers than Curt Schilling in the Hall of Fame. He had a long career, and a good peak, not as dominant a peak as some peers, but extended enough to make up for that. He was never the best pitcher in baseball, but that was because 4 of the greatest pitchers ever (Clemens, RJ, Maddux, Pedro) were pitching at the same time. Strikeout-to-walk-ratio isn't a perfect statistic at all, but it is still useful, and Schilling has the 2nd best K/BB ratio of all time, 4.38. In the "Big Hall", he's a clear Hall of Famer to me.

I think baseball fans who are continually learning about sabermetrics and advanced statistics forget just how large a large portion of the baseball community still judges a pitcher by his W-L record. And this must be the explanation for fans thinking Schilling may not be a Hall of Famer, because he has "only" 216 career wins. There's no need for me to explain why wins and losses are irrelevent; it's been talked about forever, and you either get it or you're just stubborn and don't care about the objective analysis of baseball. Just looking at one season, wins are quite useless. A career is different: wins and losses won't tell us anything that important, but the length of time in a career pretty much guarantees that a "bad" pitcher won't end up with 300 wins. But does that mean a pitcher with 300 wins is definitively better than one with 216? Absolutely not. But the road to 300 wins is a strange one.

People wonder if we will ever see a 300 win pitcher again. It shouldn't matter, but it would be kinda cool. I think we will, and I think the pitcher currently who has the best shot at it is CC Sabathia. Consider this: Sabathia will be 30 next year, and he already has 157 wins. He will likely be pitching the majority of his remaining career with the Yankees, a team we expect to provide good offense every season. He appears to have a durable body. And he's a great pitcher right now, in his prime. All of those factors demonstrate how CC can get to 300 wins. Most of all, it's that high win total, 157, at 30 years old, very rare for pitchers these days.

From 2001-2005, the start of his career, Sabathia went 69-45, a .605 winning percentage. Yet, he was only an above average to good pitcher. His ERA+ was 107 over that period. By logging many innings, his overall value was good (14.4 rWAR, 17.9 fWAR). But not good enough to post a .605 winning percentage over a 5 year period, at least, not without some very good fortune. Sabathia has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2006, but it was his ability to start a career earlier and stock up on many wins at a young age that puts him in position to win 300 games. And it could have been very different. He could have been Matt Cain.

Whether Matt Cain will ever reach the level Sabathia is at right now remains to be seen. But I think comparing Sabathia and Cain in their first 5 seasons is fascinating (I leave out Cain's 2005 season, because he only pitched 46 innings). Sabathia's first full season was at age 20, Cain at age 21. Here are the stats they put up:

Sabathia: 972.2 IP, 4.10 ERA, 107 ERA+, 14.4 rWAR, 17.9 fWAR, 69-45 (.605%) W-L Record

Cain: 1049.1 IP, 3.50 ERA, 124 ERA+, 15.4 rWAR, 18.7 fWAR, 55-61 (.474%) W-L Record

The WAR numbers are pretty close, but Cain is slightly ahead in both. He also threw more innings. And the adjusted ERA isn't that close, relatively speaking. Yet look at those W-L records.

There's no reason really to compare Cain and Sabathia; all pitchers are different, and whether Sabathia "deserves" all that great fortune early in his career is nullified by his now long held status as one of the best in baseball (he currently has 4 straight seasons of 230 or more IP, and his ERA+ over that period is 142) . Cain has yet to reach those heights, and he might never. I said I wouldn't even go into how pitcher wins are useless, but this side by side comparison says it all. They are very close in performance, and Cain is better. Looking at the W-L records, you'd think think the exact opposite. And you'd be so completely, utterly wrong.

Rowand for Fukudome? Yes, Please.

2010-12-17T13:33:00.001-08:00

First of all, I'm gonna apologize for not posting anything over the last couple of weeks. With finals going on for both of us, we decided to take a break. But we're back and ready to go with the news this morning that the Giants and Cubs have discussed an Aaron Rowand-Kosuke Fukudome trade, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com.

It's no surprise that Rowand is being shopped - he has a huge contract, isn't good, and as the roster currently stands, it doesn't seem like there is room for him. And this particular rumor is especially appealing because almost everything about Fukudome is better than Rowand. His 2010, which wasn't too far off his career numbers (.259/.368/.410/.778), looked like this: .263/.371/.439/.810 in 429 PAs. Fukudome strikes out quite a bit (20.8% career) but his career walk rate (14.7%) is very good. Rowand had an OBP under .300 last year and has a career walk rate of 5.6%. It's pretty clear who the better offensive player is.

I've always assumed that when getting rid of Rowand, the Giants would have to pay most of the salary and get nothing back in return besides a crappy reliever. As I mentioned above, Rowand pretty much has to go because the Giants have too many outfielders - Burrell, Torres, Ross, Schierholtz, Rowand, DeRosa, Huff/Belt. Getting rid of Rowand for nothing would solve the outfield overcrowding problem. But adding another OF like Fukudome means another outfielder would have to go, most likely Schierholtz. Luckily, Fukudome isn't terrible on defense and defense is really the only reason Nate is still around. As a right fielder, he's fared pretty well according to UZR, with scores of 6.0 in 2008, 7.8 in 2009, and dropping off a bit in 2010 at -4.4. He is 33 and isn't likely to improve much on defense, but he won't clog up the outfield either.

I thought maybe the only other player the Giants could get in return for Rowand would be one with a bad contract. While Fukudome does make $13.5 million (way too much), it's only for one more year and his contract is actually better than Rowand's, which has 2 years and $24 million left. For this reason, I can't understand why the Cubs would do the deal. Crasnick does say the trade is a long shot. Maybe the Cubs want to save money this year? The Giants would probably throw some money into the deal, but it still seems weird. In the end, all the evaluations of Fukudome as a player don't matter because we know these two things: he's a better player with a better contract. And Rowand would finally be gone. Please make it happen, Sabez.

Giants Sign Miguel Tejada

2010-12-01T16:09:00.000-08:00

Although it isn't official until his physical, we can safely say that former MVP Miguel Tejada will be the Giants starting shortstop for 2011. Tejada's deal is for 1 year, $6 million. In essence, he'll be replacing Juan Uribe, and when you look at the 2 players and the contracts they each got, the Giants situation appears quite favorable. Before Uribe joined the Giants in 2009, he had just had 4 seasons with an average OPS+ of 77. He may not be that bad ever again, but giving him a 3 year contract is pretty foolish. Meanwhile, Tejada will only be with the Giants for 1 year, and isn't costing a lot. Looking at it purely from that perspective, the move isn't bad at all. Also, there are a lot of positive things to say about Miguel Tejada.

He was one of the better shortstops in baseball most of this decade, thanks to his ability to make hard contact and hit for power from the weakest (or 2nd weakest) offensive position on the diamond. His career defensive numbers aren't pretty, but they aren't atrocious either. He is considered a great clubhouse leader and continually competitive, motivated player, who even at 36 is in better shape than many major leaguers. All those qualities are impressive and admirable. So, having established that Tejada for 1 year is "okay" (because it's more favorable than keeping the current SS, Uribe), and going over what his reputation is as a player and teammate, you might wonder why I dislike this signing as much as I do.

It isn't nearly as popular to criticize Brian Sabean these days as it was a mere, oh, 5 months ago. A World Series trophy, somewhat rightly, buys a lot of credibility. But I think the Tejada signing represents just another uncreative move by Sabean to fill a position with an aging veteran. And just because we all hated the Aubrey Huff signing last year, and he succeeded beyond anyone's expectations, doesn't mean the Giants should AIM to spend the offseason picking up the players no one else really wants. You can only get lucky like that so many times. And there's really no reason to refrain from fair criticism of Sabean simply because the team just won the World Series. This offseason is now about winning it in 2011. 2010, as magical a year as it was, has nothing to do with that.

So why do I think the Tejada signing is uncreative and disappointing? Simply because it appears that better shortstop options are in fact out there to be had. JJ Hardy (#JJHardyorGTFO) could be available, either in a trade or simply as a free agent if the Twins non-tender him (this might be less likely than I hope; the Twins seem to have ideas of other options at SS, but all analysis points to Hardy being their best option). Marco Scutaro and Jason Bartlett are both trade options, and the Red Sox and Rays want middle relief in return, something the Giants have. If you were to go just by last year's performance, Tejada is very close to all 3 of these guys, or better. I think you could reasonably expect that all of them might end up giving the same production in 2011 (1.5-2.5 WAR). But the other 3 possible SS all have something that I believe Tejada lacks: the potential to have a big year. Hardy had 4.3 and 4.9 WAR seasons in 2007 and 2008 (and positive UZR numbers in every season of his career; how the hell could the Twins not want to keep this guy? I think maybe they will keep him). Bartlett had a huge offensive season in 2009, then a total dropoff in 2010. The same for Scutaro, on a smaller scale. Now, of course, Tejada has had a much more productive career than any of these guys. But Miguel Tejada is going to be 37 next season. His skills have been diminishing every season. His power is mostly gone. His defense is not good. And he'll be playing one of the most demanding defensive positions, everyday. He doesn't strike out a lot; he never has. Going hand in hand with that, he doesn't walk much either (never has). Although Tejada doesn't make as much contact as he used to, he will still hit his share of singles and doubles, and most of his offense comes from that. But his age and free swinging tendencies also means lots of double plays. Tejada has led the league in double plays 5 times. Yeah. I've come to the conclusion that Tejada isn't actually a disaster. But it remains to be seen if the Giants could have done a lot better.

Speaking of double plays, I want to end the post with a word on Pablo Sandoval. When we first heard about the Tejada signing, there was talk that perhaps he was being signed to play 3rd base, or to at least pressure Pablo into performing well, because Tejada would be waiting to take over. This I hate. It's truly amazing how our expectations shape our perceptions and observations. We can all agree that Sandoval had a bad 2010 season. But it was still better and more productive than Tejada's in nearly every way (I tweeted the numbers that support this, you can find them by simply comparing their 2010 slashlines, wOBA, and WAR on fangraphs). I fully expect Sandoval to rebound in 2011, but even if he barely did so, he would be better than Tejada. Perhaps we'll need to write a full post on Sandoval this offseason. I am truly mystified how so many fans have given up on a young player so quickly, especially when you consider what he did so recently in 2009 at the age of 22.

Juan Uribe Signs With the....Dodgers?!

2010-11-29T12:58:00.000-08:00

Today, Juan Uribe has signed with the Dodgers, yes THEM, for 3 years and $21 million. Uribe is no Giants legend, who after spending his entire career in San Francisco is ending his career by playing for the enemy. But after his home run sent the Giants to the World Series, he'll be a Giants postseason hero forever and that is why it's a little painful to think of him in Dodger blue. Nonetheless, it's a good thing the Giants didn't match the offer.

Three years and $21 million is too much for Juan Uribe. That amount of money isn't as much today as it used to be, but giving a low OBP player, who is coming off a season that was WORSE than the year before, that much money and that many years just doesn't seem like a good investment (Not that I care if the Dodgers are handing out bad deals). Uribe is a hacker. He swings at tons of pitches outside the zone, so he strikes out a lot, but it also means he doesn't walk much, and will always have a low OBP. His career on-base percentage is .300 and his best OBP for a single season was .329 in 2009 with the Giants. He actually had the highest walk rate of his career in 2010 (7.8%), and his OBP was still just .310. And he'll be 32 on Opening Day 2011. He does have the ability to hit some huge home runs, but that's not a player I want to commit to for 3 years.

Uribe does provide value defensively because he can play three infield positions (2B, SS, 3B) and plays them all at least decently. According to UZR he's been a plus defender for the most part. But he's no defensive wizard, and at age 32 and looking at his body type, it's likely he'll lose some range. On a good team, he should provide above-average defense and be hitting towards the bottom of the lineup. So again, I'm not sure that warrants $21 million over 3 years.

I was never a huge Juan Uribe fan, but after the World Series, I appreciate the hell out of what he gave the Giants. In that sense, it's too bad the enemy gave him the best deal. On the other hand, losing Uribe shouldn't be a huge loss for the Giants, and they would have been idiots to give him a better deal than he got from the Dodgers. It'll be interesting to see how he's greeted when he comes back to San Francisco. I've heard things like he's a traitor or he's not loyal. This isn't about loyalty. He played for with the Giants for 2 years. He deserved to go out and find the best deal he could, as it was likely his last opportunity to really cash in. I have to hate him now, but I will never forget how important he was to this team. When he gets his World Series ring, maybe I'll give a little cheer for just him, but after that, I'll be booing. It's just business, gotta keep the rivalry alive. Here's to hoping that Uribe works out about as well for the Dodgers as Jason Schmidt did.

Giants Re-Sign Aubrey Huff

2010-11-23T12:47:00.000-08:00

As first reported by Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, the Giants have re-signed Aubrey Huff to a 2-year, $22 million deal with a 3rd year club option. My first reaction was probably similar to yours: Wow, $11 million a year is a lot of money for Huff, probably too much. But I'm okay with this deal for a couple of reasons.

The key part of the deal is the years. The Giants only signed him for 2 years, which is huge. Huff wanted 3 years and there were likely teams that would've given it to him, but the Giants got him for just two, likely because they gave him more money per year.

Most reasonable Giants fans know it would be a miracle for Huff to repeat his 2010 numbers. This year he was a .290/.385/.506/.891 hitter with a 5.7 WAR. But in 2009 he was just a .241/.310/.384/.694 hitter with a -1.4 WAR. It's what makes him such a weird player. He had such a terrible year in 2009 and then when most people thought his career was pretty much over, he comes back with a great 2010. It's hard to know or even guess what he'll give you in 2011. In addition to the possibility that Huff's 2010 was mostly a fluke, he's not getting younger, his 2010 defensively was very likely a fluke, and he did post more mediocre numbers on offense after August 1st (.255/.360/.426/.786). I don't know how he'll do next year, but considering his age and slight regression towards the end of 2010, it's likely that the Giants overpaid for him. But the worst case scenario is that he's a player really not worth his salary at all, who the team hasn't made a long-term commitment to. The more likely scenario is that he provides average production at the position. But if that worst case scenario presents itself, his contract won't be a pain in the ass for a long time.

If we just want to focus on the Giants competing next season, it's quite possible that the Giants had no better option than to bring back Huff. With top prospect Brandon Belt hopefully being ready to start on Opening Day or at least come up midseason, the Giants are basically paying Huff to be their left fielder. According to Keith Law's Top 50 Free Agents list (Insider), Huff would be the 3rd best option for a team looking for an outfielder, behind just Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. The Giants were not going to get Crawford or Werth; they don't have enough money and would have had to commit to long-term deals with them. I imagine Law ranked Huff as the 15th best free agent assuming he would be a first baseman, and maybe Huff's below average defense makes him less valuable in the outfield, but still, the next best free agent outfield options include guys like Manny Ramirez, Magglio Ordonez, and Johnny Damon. I'd rather have Huff. Maybe the Giants could have replaced Huff through the trade market? Maybe, but I find it unlikely that they'd be able to acquire a player better than Huff, without giving up some pretty good prospects. They also don't have many internal options that could replace Huff's production. Nate Schierholtz? Not enough offense. Darren Ford? Hellll no. Thomas Neal? Maybe later, but he's not quite ready. Of all the realistic possibilities, Aubrey Huff is probably the best option for the Giants in left field.

Today, Aubrey Huff probably got more money than he should have. He was a great player last year and an important leader in the clubhouse, but it's unlikely he'll have such a great year again. However, the deal given to Huff is not terrible. Really, it's not hard to imagine another team offering him 2 years and $20 million. Normally, I might say if that's what Huff was looking for, the Giants should move on and look elsewhere. But it's doubtful that the Giants could find another player in their price range more likely to produce than Huff. At worst, the Giants have a mediocre player or worse who they only have to pay for 2 years. At best, they have a player who is definitely worth the money. Huff's value will likely fall somewhere in between. A 2 year, $22 million contract is not going to drastically limit the team financially; the Rowand and Zito contracts have already done that. I don't love the deal, but I definitely don't hate it either.

Giants Free Agent Profile: Aubrey Huff

2010-11-16T18:45:00.001-08:00

When I think of the 2010 World Champion Giants, I think of Aubrey Huff. In his first season with the team, Huff always felt like the leader, the man in the center. After all, he hit 3rd most of the season. He led the team in most offensive categories. On a team that had mostly hackers, Huff and Torres (and later Burrell) added an element of patience at the plate that hasn't existed in the SF lineup since, well, maybe since Barry Bonds left. He was on fire most of the first half, dropped off slightly in the 2nd, but was still good, and had some big hits in the postseason, notably his HR in Game 4 of the World Series. Now the Giants have to decide whether Huff is worth bringing back, because he is likely to get some attractive offers from other teams.

Huff had by far his best season as a major leaguer in 2010. Huff came up to the majors in 2000, and from 2002-2004, he was consistently good offensively for Tampa Bay, but his value was hurt by poor defense. He then had a down year in 2005, was traded midseason in 2006 to Houston, and had a mediocre season for Baltimore in 2007. Huff then had a great season for the Orioles in 2008, with a .387 wOBA. After a terrific 2008, and going into a walk year in 2009, Huff was suddenly horrible. A lifetime .287 hitter at the time, his average dropped to .241. His walk and strikeout numbers stayed about the same, but for the first time since 2001 he slugged below .400 (his career slugging at that point was .483, a hundred points higher than his 2009 slugging). It was a disaster for Huff, and it looked like 2008 had been a fluke. After all, he had been going downhill since 2004, and maybe he finally reached the bottom. Then he ended up with the Giants, had a remarkable 2010 season, and now we are left to wonder if 2009 was the fluke year.

Looking at his 2010 stats, one thing clearly stands out: Huff was more patient than he's ever been. His career high 12.4% walk rate led to a career high .385 OBP, and that mixed with a few other things gave him his career highs in wOBA (.385) and WAR (5.7). In his seasons in Tampa, Huff got on base at an above average rate, but it wasn't anything spectacular (.360-.370). Huff's slugging in 2010 slightly exceeded his career average, but it wasn't as high as some of the power numbers he put up earlier in the decade.

Is it really possible that a 33 year old veteran was able to suddenly become a more patient, better hitter out of nowhere? It certainly isn't normal, especially on the heels of such a massive the previous year. But another part of Huff's 2010 season is even less normal, and that was his very competent defense. Huff was bad defensively pretty much his whole career. This year, he was asked to play 1st base, left field, and right field, and played them all without hurting the team. Interestingly, Huff's buddy Pat Burrell also had a fine defensive year, while holding a reputation as a poor fielder. I don't know whether we can expect either to have as a good a season next year in that department. Should Huff return to the Giants, there is a question of where he would play. His best position is 1st base, but the Giants do have to keep Brandon Belt in mind for 2011, even if he starts in AAA. Huff showed in 2010 that he can move around, but it's not ideal at all to have him in right field if the Giants can help it. Either way, if the Giants want Belt to possibly play first base, the outfield corner spots would have to be flexible for Huff to move there.

I think it's clear the Giants would like to bring Huff back, and that he would like to come back. But Huff would also like to cash in on his career year, and there's a certain limit that the Giants will have to set on what they'll give him. I think more important than the actual money is the length of the contract. It simply can't be more than 2 years. You don't want to make that kind of commitment to an older player who has had years of failure in the past, especially when you have a young player who looks about ready to take over his primary position. But it would make no sense for Huff to agree to just a 1 year deal. We can only hope that Huff's desire to stay with the club that brought him so much joy this year will be able to sway him just enough towards taking a little less. But if a noticeably better offer is on the table, the player, quite fairly, almost always takes it. I worry that tempting contract will be on the table. But if it is, the Giants would do very well to say no, and not match it.

Giants Free Agent Profile: Juan Uribe

2010-11-11T14:10:00.001-08:00

Juan Uribe is so easy to love. The huge home runs. The jazz hands. The voice that can barely be understood. But now he's a free agent and it's entirely possible that we won't see the postseason hero in a Giants uniform again.

When thinking about Uribe as a free agent, my first thought was that I'd love to have him back...as a utility infielder. For the last 2 years, the Giants have signed him to be a utility guy, but he's mostly been a starter because of injuries to guys like Edgar Renteria and Freddy Sanchez and ineffectiveness from Pablo Sandoval. He's a good option off the bench because he can play 3B, SS, and 2B and plays them well defensively. But mostly I didn't feel like he should be a starter because his offensive numbers seemed a little underwhelming. Uribe will always be a guy who can hit a ball really, really far but he's kind of an all or nothing guy. He doesn't hit for high average and doesn't walk very much, so his on-base percentage (OBP) is always pretty low. In fact, his OBP of .329 (which isn't very good) in 2009 was the highest of his career. His plate discipline is terrible (he had a pretty bad O-Swing % of 36% this year) and he strikes out a lot.

It should also be noted that Uribe's 2009 was, in many respects, better than his 2010. Sure his HRs and RBIs went way up, but the things that matter like OBP, SLG, OPS, and wOBA all went down in 2010. He had 150 fewer plate appearances in 2009, but still his numbers were better across the board. Coming off of that 2009 year, all he got was a 1 year/$3.25 million dollar deal. Now after a worse year, he's likely to get, at the minimum, a 2 year/$12 million deal. Because of a weak free agent shortstop class and improved home run numbers, the Giants or any other team may be overpaying a player who may already be declining.

But a quick look at 2010 major league shortstops makes me wonder if Uribe is the Giants' best option. Basically, there aren't very many good ones and Juan Uribe was probably one of the top 6 or 7 shortstops in all of baseball in 2010. He was certainly better than any other shortstop available now. The only guy who I'd rather have that might be available is Stephen Drew, and that probably won't happen. Also, there is no one in the minors who is close to being able to contribute except maybe Brandon Crawford, who has a long way to go offensively. Uribe is probably the best option the Giants have unless they can swing a deal for Drew.

The Giants are, like many teams, the victims of a weak shortstop market. Good shortstops are hard to come by and as a guy who has a lot of power and is good defensively, Uribe is an okay option at the bottom of the order. He's just not great, and the Giants should be looking to upgrade offensively at any position they can. But if there are no upgrades, I think I've made myself okay with giving him a 2 year/$12 million deal, but I'd be hesitant to go any higher than that. So there are still many questions. Can he get more than $6 million per year from another team? It wouldn't surprise me. Could he get more than 2 years from another team? Again, it wouldn't surprise me. But as time goes by it's looking the Giants may NEED Juan Uribe. Or else...Stephen Drew? Oh baby. Or more likely, Orlando Cabrera? Alex Gonzalez? Mike Fontenot? Edgar Renteria? Brandon Crawford? Yikes.

As always, your thoughts and comments are welcome and appreciated.

Giants Free Agent Profile: Pat Burrell

2010-11-09T19:03:00.001-08:00

This week, we'll look at 3 current free agents that all played a large part in bringing a World Series trophy to San Francisco. Today's player is Pat Burrell.

Burrell had a miserable World Series, failing to make contact with the ball most of the time. This shouldn't take away from the productive season he had at the plate for the Giants when he was acquired in June. Burrell carried the team at times, being one of the most patient batters in the lineup, and hit some of the more memorable HRs of the 2010 season. Burrell's resurgence in San Francisco came after nearly 1.5 horrid years in Tampa Bay as a DH. So the question becomes: which is the real Burrell? As usual, it's probably somewhere in the middle.

Burrell was the first overall pick by Philadelphia in 1998 and made his debut in 2000. From 2000-2004 he was off and on, ranging from average to great to below average. In 2002, he was good enough for a 146 OPS+, only to come back the next season and post a 90. Burrell then posted 4 straight consistently good seasons from 2005 to 2008, with an average 126 OPS+. It's possible that this offensive production had something to do with the emergence of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the Phillies lineup (having good hitters around you CAN make you a better hitter, because all hitters are better when other men are on base), but that effect is likely minimal. He was a very dangerous hitter in Philly, and part of their World Series team in 2008.

Burrell has always been a classic 3 true outcomes guy. He has good power, a good eye, and strikes out a lot (players with good plate discipline strike out more often because they get into deep counts, but they make up for it usually with the walks). He also played pretty poor defense in left field for Philly. This is why he seemed like an obvious DH option for an AL team as a free agent after 2008. And that's exactly what happened, when Burrell signed with the team he had just beaten in the World Series, the Tampa Bay Rays. And nothing went right in Tampa. His walks and strikeouts went slightly in the wrong directions, but it was mostly his sudden inability to hit the ball well that was a problem. His power was cut in half, and his average dipped about 40 points, bringing his OBP along with it. And when his struggles continued in 2010, Tampa Bay had no choice but to get rid of him. So the Giants picked him up, brought him to the National League, and suddenly Pat Burrell was once again Pat Burrell. The idea is Burrell "can't" DH, that he has to play in the field to hit. A similar player who is a free agent this winter, Adam Dunn, is a perfect candidate to DH for an AL team, but supposedly is hesitant, perhaps because he just has to be a butcher in the field to be able to mash in the box. It pains me to think this is true, but it's something many fans and commentators have accepted. When Burrell regained his stroke with the Giants, it likely had a lot more to do with facing a somewhat weaker league (same could be said of Aubrey Huff). Either way, there was a difference between his performance in the NL and AL.

But can we expect him to continue that next year? Not as a starter, I believe. Burrell had positive UZR numbers in 2010, but his whole career points to him being a bad left fielder. A full season in 2011 would likely see that. And while Burrell hit very well for the Giants in the regular season, his numbers do show a decline from his prime years in Philly. His strikeout numbers are about the same, but his walk numbers are down, although still good. One of the numbers that surprised me was his O-swing percentage (swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone). Most of his time in Philly, he was around 13-16%. Last year in Tampa, it was 23%, and this season with the 2 teams he rose to 24.5%. I'm not educated enough to interpret what this means exactly, but it certainly isn't positive, and could hint at a decline that is occurring.

Still, we know Burrell is patient at the plate, and that's why I think he is a fine candidate for a bench role with the Giants, which is mostly what has been reported so far. Going against the notion that he has to play everyday in the field to be effective, I think a limited role could help keep Burrell fresh as he gets older. The Giants might end up with an outfield next year that focuses on matchups and platoons, and Burrell is a guy who could start when it is advantageous, and be a dangerous threat on the bench late in games. Going back to his patience, I think that quality is one of the most important for a pinch hitter (it's important for everyone, really). Since the pinch hitter will often be hitting in the 9th spot of the lineup, the chances of him coming up with the bases empty are greater, since the hitters in front are less likely to get on base. Therefore, the pinch hitter often needs to be the one to start a rally, rather than drive in the runs. It is somewhat strange to have an outfielder on the bench who can only play left field, and not very well, but the Giants have a few more options than most teams, because Mark DeRosa is an infielder and corner outfielder.

Because of the concerns that still linger from his days in Tampa, and the horrendous showing he had in the World Series, Burrell is not likely to be offered multiple years the way Aubrey Huff is. He is from the Bay Area, grew up a Giants fan, and just won the World Series. And he has said he'd accept a smaller role. If the Giants want Burrell, I think they have him, for not too much of a commitment. The larger question is whether his University of Miami teammate Huff will stay. As insignificant as it might be, the 2 of them brought a lot of chemistry to the team, and would be a lot happier if they were together (I know this is starting to sound "weird"). But Huff is a player for another day, so check back this week for posts about him and Giants postseason hero Juan Uribe.

The Case Against Dan Uggla

2010-11-08T18:31:00.000-08:00

As of now, Dan Uggla's name is not really being connected to the Giants. But the Giants have had rumored interest for a couple of years now and all of a sudden Uggla is in the news. It's being reported that Uggla turned down a 4 year/$48 million extension from the Marlins mostly because he wants a five year deal worth something around $58 million. Just a couple of months ago, when I was thinking of potential Giants' lineups in 2011, or rosterbating, as we baseball types like to call it, Uggla was one player I wanted. Now, the Giants have Cody Ross, who is best friends with Uggla, and a report from a couple of months ago said Ross was telling him how much he loved playing for the Giants and how Uggla should join him in San Francisco. That combined with the Giants' need for offense and a middle infielder has Giants fans wanting Uggla. But I've settled on the idea that trading for or signing him in free agency next year would NOT be a good idea for many reasons.

Uggla would be a lot more valuable if he was good defensively, but he's not. In his career he's only had two UZR scores above average: 5.5 in his rookie year, 2006, and 0.7, which is barely above average, in 2008. Otherwise he's always been a very bad defender, finishing with UZR scores of -9.9 and -7.6 in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The stats suggest he will not be able to stay at second base as he gets older, which is a problem. Uggla's value comes from being a great hitting 2nd baseman. In 2010, he had a career high .877 OPS and his OPS has never dipped below .800. Those are very good numbers for a second baseman. But if he's forced to move to first base or left field, he's a good hitter but not a GREAT hitter. So, if the Giants were to acquire Uggla, they'd have a terrible defensive 2nd baseman for the first couple of years and then just an okay-hitting 1B or LF for the next few years. And that's assuming his offensive production doesn't drop off drastically as he ages, which is a real possibility.

Uggla's contract demands coupled with his age would also have to be considered concerning. He is already 30 years old and will be 31 on Opening Day 2011. And he wants a 5 year deal worth about $12 million per year? I'm not necessarily saying Uggla doesn't deserve it. He's been one of the best offensive second basemen in the game for a few years now. But that just would not be a good long-term investment for the Giants. Not to mention the fact that the Giants probably don't even have the money to pay Uggla because they are already financially burdened by the terrible long-term investments in Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand.

If the Giants were to trade for Uggla now, they'd probably have to give up a good starting pitcher (Sanchez?) and a pretty good prospect. Then they'd have to give him the huge contract extension that he wants. Do not want. If they wait to sign him in free agency next year, they have a 32 year old second baseman who is still bad defensively, whose best offensive years are probably behind him, and he still wants that big contract. Do not want.

Dan Uggla is tempting. In the first couple of years of a deal, he'd be a huge help for the offense. And hey, if Cody Ross can convince him to sign next year for 4 years and $20 million, I'm all for it. But that won't happen. Ultimately, it would be a bad idea. Whether it's this year or next year, just say no to Dan Uggla.

As always your comments, opinions, and disagreements are always welcome in the comments section.

Giants Decline Renteria's $10.5 Million Option

2010-11-04T17:27:00.000-07:00

It has been announced that the Giants have declined Edgar Renteria's $10.5 million club option. The decision is not surprising. Despite being named the World Series MVP just a couple of days ago, Renteria's career has been on the decline for a while and he is not even close to being a $10.5 million player. The real question is whether or not Edgar Renteria comes back at all next year.

First of all, Renteria did state during the season that he was mulling retirement and has continued to say that, although he hasn't made a final decision. Secondly, all Giants fans love and appreciate what Renteria did for the team during the World Series. But the fact is, he was a player most fans loved to hate during the regular season because he's just not very good anymore. Offensively, he has very little power and doesn't get on base particularly well and defensively, he's lost range. It's clear that he is no longer an everyday player.

The only reason bringing back Renteria is even an option is because the free agent shortstop class is incredibly weak. Juan Uribe is probably the best shortstop available, and even he's not an ideal starter. Additionally, Uribe will probably be able to get a starting job somewhere and will be looking for a good amount of money. Beyond him, there's Orlando Cabrera? Mike Fontenot? Some pretty unflattering options. Renteria has shown that he can be effective at times and he'd be cheap. But as I stated before, he is not an everyday player, so the Giants would need to have someone else for the position.

It's hard for me to see him coming back. The Giants need to improve the offense and shortstop is one of the areas they should look to find it. To do this they'd have to go through the trade market but it's clear that they could use an upgrade at shortstop. As Renteria is mulling retirement, I see the Giants looking to improve the position. If they're unsuccessful, maybe they offer Renteria a 1 year/$1 million dollar deal or something like that at the last minute. But Giants fans should hope the team will have a better option come 2011.

I'd be curious to see what you guys think. Should Edgar stay or go?

What It All Means

2010-11-02T19:06:00.000-07:00

Not sure you heard, but the Giants won the World Series yesterday. No, actually, they dominated the World Series. It almost doesn't seem right. When Brian Wilson struck out Nelson Cruz on a 3-2 pitch and when Buster Posey jumped out of the squat and the mid-diamond brawl began, all I could do was smile. And yell. I ran up and down my dorm room hallway just yelling, wanting everyone to hear me, to feel the same way I did. But that would only last a couple of minutes; most of all, I just smiled.

And I'm not sure it'll ever hit me more than that. I'm not some fan who has waited 56 long years for this to happen; I've been a loyal fan since 2002. It's not all that uncommon for a fan to go 8 years without seeing his/her favorite team win a championship. So, there was no 56 year long wait being lifted off my back. I'm not trying to say that this doesn't mean a ton to me. This feeling, this moment is the only reason you become and stay a sports fan. There's no reason to put yourself through all the torture, disappointment, and stress that comes with being loyal towards a team unless it eventually pays off in the form of a championship. No more is "The San Francisco Giants suck because they've never even won a World Series" taunting from fans of other teams. No more do I have to feel depressed about what happened in 2002. And ultimately, because I can't claim the long, painful wait for this feeling, this World Series victory that so many others have waited an eternity for, what I take away the most is how much I love and will always love this friggin' team.

So many Giants fans were upset that the media deemed this team "misfits". But to me, that's not an insult, and it's kind of the perfect way to describe the 2010 Giants. In some sense, you could say "misfits" is completely wrong because the reason we love this team so much is because their personalities fit together so well. On the other hand, the Giants are made up of so many different parts from different places, they are misfits. And that made this team more fun to root for. This team was not supposed to do this. A team with Cody Ross batting cleanup in Game 5 of the World Series should not dominate the World Series. But they did, and all of us Giants fans knew they could do it. That's where the media got it wrong. No one thought this team had a chance. They overlooked the pitching and mostly judged the Giants on their lack of hitting. But that's okay. It doesn't matter. The Giants are a bunch of misfits. The Giants are World Champions.

I will remember this postseason primarily for the pitching. I will remember Tim Lincecum pitching one of the best games in postseason history in the NLDS, a game that, according to Game Score and according to us, was even better than Roy Halladay's no-hitter. I will remember Matt Cain not allowing one single earned run in these playoffs, all the while proving to the national media that he's way better than just an average innings eater. I will remember Madison Bumgarner for being the 21-year old rookie that absolutely shut down the American League's best offense in a must win game. And I will remember Jonathan Sanchez for being Jonathan Sanchez. A pitcher who frustrated the hell out of Giants fans, but also a pitcher who was capable of dominance, as he showed in Game 3 of the NLDS.

I will never forget knowing that in the late innings, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jason Heyward had no chance to do anything against us because of Javier Lopez. I will never forget Brian Wilson, his fantastic beard, and his pal, The Machine. I will never forget Jeremy Affeldt coming in with runners on base and 0 outs after a disastrous start for Jonathan Sanchez and shutting down the Phillies lineup on the way to an NLCS clinching victory. I will never forget that while Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, and Ramon Ramirez struggled at times, at least they kept the torture alive. I will never forget how incredibly happy Guillermo Mota looked while celebrating a World Series win, even though he barely played.

How can you not love Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell? Pat Burrell struggled mightily in the World Series, but he and Huff brought a great clubhouse energy to this team all year that can't be overstated. Aubrey Huff wore the now infamous red rally thong that coincided with the Giants' success. And their punching of each other after their teammates did great things? Purely awesome. I will never forget that.

I can't forget Buster Posey and I won't have to. I'll remember his fantastic rookie year, carrying the Giants' offense from the moment he was called up. That guy is gonna be around for long time and will hopefully experience many Giants World Series victories.

I won't forget the top 2 hitters in the order, Andres Torres and Freddy Sanchez, coming up huge for the Giants in the World Series. For never failing to get to a flyball in the outfield and for having a completely unexpected, great season, I will always love Torres. I will always remember Freddy Sanchez's 3 doubles off Cliff Lee in Game 1 and his great defense all year.

Nobody will ever forget what Cody Ross did for the Giants. No Giants hitter was hitting well against the Phillies in the NLCS besides Ross, who carried the offense on his back. He became the face of the misfits. The waiver wire pickup earned himself a probable starting job next year, all because of one helluva postseason.

Juan Uribe. How many crazy, game-winning home runs did he have? It seems like a lot. The one that stood out was the go ahead 3-run homer off Jonathan Broxton in Dodger Stadium. Or how about his 3-run bomb in Game 1 that pretty much sealed the victory? But the one that he'll be remembered forever in Giants history for is his opposite field solo shot that sent the Gaints to the World Series.

The man who was so easy to hate. He made too much money, he just wasn't very good, and I couldn't wait for his contract to end. All of that is completely gone. If I ever remember Edgar Renteria for one thing, it won't be any of that stuff. It'll be his 3-run homer off Cliff Lee in Game 5. Of all people, Renteria did that. Clinched the World Series. World Series MVP. A Giants World Series hero forever.

I will remember all of the guys who didn't do much, but were important nonetheless. Pablo Sandoval barely played and lost his starting job. But I will remember his opposite field double to give the Giants a lead in Game 4 of the NLCS and how pumped up he was when he got into 2nd base. Nate Schierholtz didn't look like he did much, but just having him in the outfield was huge, late in games. Eli Whiteside and Mike Fontenot didn't play in the World Series and Travis Ishikawa didn't do anything too significant, but I will always remember them for being a part of this team.

I have a whole new appreciation for guys like Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito, veterans who had to deal with extremely reduced roles. Rowand has been dealing with it all season, and we've never heard the slightest complaint from him. Zito was left off the postseason roster in favor of guys much younger and less experienced than him. Never heard any negativity from him. Both were always cheering their teammates on and excitedly participating in the many celebratory champagne showers.

And it's amazing how much my opinion of Bruce Bochy has changed. Bochy had an incredible postseason. And I realize that he's not a great manager, but considering the offense he had to work with, I appreciate the job he did. And seeing what some of the other postseason managers did, I came to the conclusion that Bochy is not all that bad. It's easy to criticize a manager and I'm sure I'll do it many times, but Bruce Bochy made great decisions at the most important time in his managerial career. I feel for good for a guy who's been in baseball for 35 years and finally has a World Series ring.

This feels sweet because it was so unexpected. I hated the signing of Huff. I didn't care for bringing up Pat Burrell so early after he was signed. We re-signed Bengie Molina at the beginning of the year. Todd Wellemeyer. I came into this year feeling the same way I've felt for the last couple of years. We were going to have a great pitching staff and a terrible offense. I'll be honest: I did not see the Giants getting to the playoffs unless they acquired a big bat. But they acquired Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Javier Lopez and called up Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. They got great seasons from Aubrey Huff and Andres Torres. And this is the end result. World Series Champions. This specific team will never be the same. Let's savor it. Let's enjoy it. We deserve it. The Giants deserve it. It's been a great season and an even better postseason. And while I enjoy this feeling, I'm already counting down the days until Spring Training. Let's do it again.

2010 World Series Game 5: SF 3, TEX 1

2010-11-01T21:41:00.001-07:00

This will be a short game recap. You can be assured that Mack and I will have a lot to write about this coming week, but now is not quite the time for analysis or remembrance. Now is simply the time to savor and celebrate.

The 2010 Giants have brought home the first World Series championship to San Francisco. Game 5 turned out to be the classic pitching duel we expected in Game 1, with both Lincecum and Lee putting up zeroes through 6 innings. Lincecum was at his best, the kind of Lincecum we saw so many times in 2008 and 2009, the kind we saw in April and September of 2010, and the kind we saw in the playoff opener against the Braves. He could not be beaten tonight. Every pitch was working for him, and his velocity was strong. The Rangers simply had no chance. The only damage was a late solo HR from Nelson Cruz. Even then, the game felt over. Because the Giants did what they had to do with Lincecum throwing a gem. They got to Cliff Lee. Again.

Cliff Lee is a great pitcher. But he isn't everything he was made out to be, and that's no knock on him at all. He just isn't Sandy Koufax. He pitched quite well tonight, but the Giants once again weren't baffled by him the way other teams have been in the playoffs. They had hit the ball somewhat hard, but had nothing to show for it until the 7th inning. That was when 2 of the biggest playoff contributors, Ross and Uribe, hit back to back singles up the middle. Aubrey Huff sacrificed them over, getting his first sacrifice bunt of his career. An odd play, but I can't say I disagreed with it. Even though he is one of their most important hitters, the run environment tonight was low, and the smart play was to trade outs for runs. Huff also nearly reached, so it was a good call by Bochy, again. After Pat Burrell struck out, Edgar Renteria came up, and the Rangers had the opportunity to walk Renteria and pitch to the potentially much easier out, Aaron Rowand. But Cliff Lee, the proud, somewhat arrogant pitcher that he is, didn't want to walk Renteria. And I commend him for that. But I'm sure he wishes he had pitched around Edgar. On 2-0, Lee threw a fastball down the heart of the plate, and Renteria swung.

On the swing, the ball went straight into the air towards left center. It didn't really look like Edgar had driven the ball. But as it kept carrying and carrying, it became evident that this ball was not going to be caught. The outfielders were just too far. I thought it would land near the warning track, scoring 2 runs. But then it kept going, until it slipped over the left field wall for a 3 run HR. It looked very much like the NLCS winning HR by Uribe. The ball just found a way to get over that wall. Notice that it didn't hit the top and bounce back.

And that was all they would need to win the only thing that matters in baseball, the World Series. Lincecum pitched 2 more innings. He finished with 10 Ks in 8 innings, only giving up 3 hits and walking 2. Wilson finished off the 9th easily against the heart of the Rangers order. That's all I can really say now. Wasn't that short of a recap after all. Look for more posts this week about Game 5, the series, and the season as a whole.

2010 World Series Game 4: SF 4, TEX 0

2010-10-31T22:58:00.000-07:00

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

When your team is up 2-1 in the World Series, Game 4 isn't normally a MUST WIN. But tonight's game was pretty much a must win. After last night's game, the Giants really don't want to go to a Game 7, and tonight's win makes that less likely. Cliff Lee is pitching tomorrow, and despite getting knocked around by the Giants' offense in Game 1, he is a dominant pitcher. The odds aren't great that the Giants can beat him a second time in a row, this time in Texas. Tonight they were also facing the most mediocre starting pitcher they will see in the World Series, Tommy Hunter, and needed to capitalize. And capitalize is what the offense did, although the hero of the night was very obviously Madison Bumgarner.

Holy hell, Bumgarner is the most popular guy in San Francisco right now and he deserves it. 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. For a 21 year old rookie. Did you see that stat line? Zero runs. Three hits allowed. All this against a fairly potent Texas Rangers lineup. Although, that fairly potent lineup has been shutout twice in this World Series and scored more than 4 runs just once. It just goes to show that a team with great pitching like the Giants should never be counted out. Great pitching usually tops great hitting. It's the reason all Giants fans knew the Giants had a very good shot at winning this thing. It's the reason Giants fans were baffled that the vast majority of experts picked the Rangers to win and a couple even said the Rangers were a much better team. It's the reason the Giants are 1 win away from winning the World Series. Wow, yes I did just type that sentence. Alright, now back to Bumgarner. I don't really even know what to say. The Rangers got one runner past 1st base tonight and it was only because of an error. The three hits given up were 2 groundball singles and a soft flyball to RF. The sexy stat going around tonight is that Bumgarner is the 2nd youngest pitcher to ever throw 8 shutout innings in a World Series game. He was just on. There was a certain point, maybe the 6th inning, when I just felt like he wasn't going to give anything up. He was great. Beautiful. Fascinating. Dominant. Delicious. Use any adjective you want. I'll use one last one. Tonight, Madison Bumgarner was amazing.

The offense got started with Aubrey Huff's 2-run homer in the third inning, which was a great sight to see. Huff hasn't exactly been slumping, but that was his first home run since September 25th. Andres Torres added an unnecessary insurance run with his RBI double in the 7th and Buster Posey scored the 4th run by hitting a home run straight away to center field. It was a pretty bizarre homer too. When he hit it, I looked down at my computer because I thought it was a simple flyout, but it kept carrying all the way out. Seemed like his first homer in a while too. I'm probably very wrong, though.

As you might expect, the Giants are in a great position, up 3-1. My gut tells me the Rangers won't lose for a second time with Cliff Lee on the mound tomorrow, especially in Texas, but the Giants are countering with Tim Lincecum. That game is very winnable. And if they can't win tomorrow, Matt Cain starts in Game 6. Cain hasn't allowed an earned run this postseason, so I'd be pretty freakin' confident with him on the mound. The Giants are 1 win away. One win away from winning the World Series. I don't even know how I'd celebrate if it were to happen. This all so surreal. Sometimes it doesn't even feel like the Giants are in the World Series. Sometimes it just seems like the Giants are playing normal baseball and playing really, really well. It hasn't quite hit me, but I hope it does soon because this is awesome. One. More. Game.

2010 World Series Game 3: TEX 4, SF 2

2010-10-30T21:19:00.001-07:00

The Giants lost tonight, but that is not the main concern to take away from Game 3. They have Bumgarner going tomorrow against a weak pitcher, Tommy Hunter, and Lincecum in Game 5 (against Lee of course). All they really need is to win 1 game in Texas. They have a good chance of getting that done. Matt Cain on the mound in Game 6 would give the Giants a great chance to finish out the series. The real concern is if this series does go to a 7th game.

Jonathan Sanchez is scheduled for that start, and Sanchez just doesn't look good right now. He pitched fine in the final game of the season, dominated the Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS, and pitched well in Game 2 against the Phillies. Then there was Game 6 of the NLCS against Philadelphia, where he looked lost, and couldn't finish the 3rd inning. Tonight, he gave up more runs, but didn't look as bad as he did in Philly. Still, it was clear something wasn't right. It'd be wrong to write a good pitcher like him off just because of 2 poor starts, but after he left the game, a few issues came up that hadn't before.

Sanchez has apparently lost some measurable velocity on his fastball, and it is affecting the way he pitches. He seemed to recognize it during this start, and after some damage was done, he adjusted well, until Hamilton homered off him in the 5th. He was throwing more breaking balls, because the fastball just wasn't working, and he ended up hanging one to Hamilton. The speculation was that this loss of velocity is due to Sanchez's long season, and Dave Righetti all but confirmed the reality of this situation after the game. He's never pitched near 200 innings until 2010, and then you add in the playoff starts, and you could see how a young arm can get tired. And one thing is probably for sure: that arm isn't going to get much less tired for Game 7. So the question becomes: should Sanchez start Game 7? If the issue were simply about a couple bad starts, but nothing to do with fatigue or injury, I'd say absolutely yes. But we are dealing now with a fatigue problem, and a tired arm is a dangerous thing to rely on, especially in Game 7 of the World Series. But then the question becomes: who would start? The Giants don't have any relievers that are "starters" (Barry Zito could have been one), so we are left with the 2 other starters, Bumgarner and Lincecum. Cain is out of the question because he started the previous night. The most he might be able to provide in that game would be an inning or so of relieve.

The difficult part of this is that when trying to avoid making Sanchez throw, the other pitchers that are options could be facing the same problem, in a different way. Do we know that Lincecum can throw effectively with 2 days rest? 3 days isn't ideal for Bumgarner, but it is more realistic, but then you think of Bumgarner. He's far more inexperienced than Sanchez, and younger. What if he is getting tired too?

Hopefully, this simply won't be an issue. Hopefully, the Giants can win the series before it gets to Game 7. And if it does, hopefully Bochy and Righetti will have observed Sanchez to see that he is okay for a start. And in the case that he isn't, the Giants have options, although none are very attractive. Without time to think it over much, I'd say give Bumgarner the ball to start the game, but make anyone available, including Lincecum and Cain.

Pat Burrell looks horrible at the plate, but he should start tomorrow. The Giants simply don't have anyone that's going to do much better. Hopefully he can figure it out right away. I have little doubt he'll be moved down in the lineup, and Ross will move up to hit behind Posey. I also think that Ishikawa will get the start at 1st, and with Huff at DH.

2010 World Series Game 2: SF 9, TEX 0

2010-10-28T21:48:00.001-07:00

Big wins are the toughest to write about, and the surreal experience of them coming in the World Series makes it even tougher. But here we go:

The Giants ended up winning by a larger margin tonight than they did in Game 1's slugfest, but until the 8th inning, this was the kind of game San Francisco fans have gotten used to. Edgar Renteria hit a solo HR in the 5th inning to break the 0-0 tie, and Juan Uribe added a run with a bloop single in the 7th inning. The Giants had 2 outs and the bases empty in the Weird Inning, and proceeded to score 7 more runs. A single by Posey. A fistful of walks. A triple by Aaron Rowand. Double by Torres. The Giants batted around for the 2nd straight day against the Rangers. Ron Washington's bullpen managing was atrocious in a close game, and now you have to question the state of the bullpen itself going back to Texas. The Giants did well to let the Rangers pitchers dig themselves into deeper holes, and it allowed for a stress free 9th inning. The Giants defense has also been stellar in the 1st two games, most notably the old men on the left side, Renteria and Uribe.

Oh, and then there was Matt Cain.

Cain went 7.2 innings, giving up only 4 hits and 2 walks to a strong Texas lineup. He now has pitched 21.1 innings in his first postseason without giving up a single earned run. Tonight, he was what all Giants already knew he was: A great pitcher. A pitcher who makes hitters slam the bat down in frustration when they popup a high fastball. There's been a lot of talk this whole postseason among the sabermetric community anytime Cain was pitching, wondering how he does it, because his peripheral numbers just don't match the end results. Yes, Cain has pitched all of his postseason games at AT&T, and there have been flyballs that might have been home runs in other ballparks. But you can forget all that, because the dominance is evident. It's shown by the past 4 years of quality pitching, and his performances in the last 2 months are just a microcosm of that. We saw it tonight, and last week against Philadelphia, and in Game 2 of the NLDS. And we saw it at Coors Field in September, when Cain single-handedly tossed the Rockies out of playoff contention. He has baffled great lineups. He has gone long in games. He has worked with slim leads. He does it all, and he only just turned 26, but has the composure of a 10 year veteran. After Cain's complete game in Denver, I said that he may not be the best pitcher on the Giants. In fact, he certainly isn't. But he's the one I love the most. Because while composure, toughness, and heart can't possibly be measured, they can be recognized, and they are things we can admire and love a player for. Matt Cain has great stuff, and he had the Texas Rangers off balance tonight because of a good fastball and changeup. That's why he pitched so well. But even I like to think that a certain factor in this admirable World Series performance was Cain's own unrelenting, undaunted drive to win.

2010 World Series Game 1: SF 11, TEX 7

2010-10-27T21:06:00.000-07:00

I make it go POW!

Cody Ross was the NLCS MVP and the Giants probably wouldn't have won the series without him, but let's acknowledge that Cody Ross isn't THAT good. He isn't a bad player, but it was mostly a fluke. I'm not trying to diminish his series. It was great, every successful playoff team needs a guy like that, and if the Giants can go all the way, he'll be remembered by Giants fans forever. Well, maybe it's Freddy Sanchez's turn to be the unpredictable guy that has a great, kinda fluky series. He was not fooled by Cliff Lee at all, going 3-for-3 with 3 doubles in his first 3 at-bats and 4-for-5 overall with 3 RBI. There were other contributors, but Sanchez sparked the Giants' huge 11-7 Game 1 win against Cliff Lee and the Rangers.

You know how many runs were scored in this game? In case you don't read the title and can't do simple addition, the answer is 18. That is a lot for a game in which Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum are the starting pitchers. Both were obviously not themselves, but Lincecum was less bad. Lee went just 4 2/3 innings and gave up 8 H, 6 ER, and 1 BB with 7 Ks. Lincecum's line looked like this: 5 2/3 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 Ks. Yeah, just 3 strikeouts.

The game started off in a pretty bizarre way. Lincecum gave up a base hit to the first batter and walked Michael Young. Josh Hamilton hit a weak grounder that advanced both runners. Then Vladimir Guerrero hit a ball that deflected off of Lincecum, allowing a run to score and no outs were made. The next play was, as Lincecum put it, a "brainfart". With runners on 1st and 3rd, Nelson Cruz hit a grounder right to Lincecum and they had Michael Young in a rundown between 3rd and home. But all Timmy did was run Young back to 3rd. It wasn't really even a rundown because Lincecum didn't even try to throw the ball to the 3rd baseman to get Young out. No idea what happened there. He was lucky to get a double play in the next at-bat, limiting the damage to just 1 run. In the bottom half of the inning, with Freddy Sanchez on base after his first double, Buster Posey hit a bloop in the air towards right fielder Vladimir Guerrero, who does not move well at all. Sanchez must've figured there was no way Guerrero would get to the ball, but he seemed to not realize that Ian Kinsler was going for the ball as well. Sanchez badly misjudged it, headed almost all the way to third, and was easily doubled off 2nd base when Kinsler caught the ball. It was a terrible, terrible baserunning mistake. The Rangers would score again in the next inning after a Cliff Lee (the pitcher) double and a sacrifice fly, Texas took a 2-0 lead, and a Giants fan freakout ensued.

Maybe the freakout wasn't all that irrational; Lincecum looked kind of average and the Giants were playing some terrible baseball. But like I said, Lee was not all that sharp either, generally not having his trademark great command and location, and the Giants started doing damage in the 3rd. Renteria reached base on a fielding error by Michael Young. Torres was hit by a pitch. Freddy Sanchez hit his 2nd double, scoring Renteria. Buster Posey singled up the middle to bring in Torres. Bam. Right back in it. And more importantly, Cliff Lee was hittable, which doesn't happen a lot.

Onto the 6th, and what an inning it was. It started with a pair of doubles from Torres and Sanchez (his 3rd). 3-2 Giants. Pat Burrell walked and Cody Ross singled. 4-2 Giants. Aubrey Huff singled. 5-2 Giants and Lee was out of the game already. But the dagger came off the bat of NLCS Game 6 hero, Juan Uribe. His homer in Philly probably would've been a flyout at AT&T. Tonight, he hit hit a legitimate 3-run bomb to right field, giving the Giants an 8-2 lead. The Rangers scored twice in the 6th and that's when Lincecum exited.

The Giants scored a few more funs in the 8th that would actually end up mattering a little bit because the Rangers scored 3 in the 9th, but the game was ultimately too out of reach for the Rangers. It may be a concern that Texas ended up scoring 7 runs off Giants pitching because the Giants normally won't be able to win slugfests. But I'm not too worried. The late innings weren't managed like a tight game with the exception of Brian Wilson coming in; Affeldt and Ramon Ramirez were pitching, not exactly our top relievers.

The Giants played some of their worst baseball in the first 2 innings and still won. The Giants scored 11 runs in a game that Cliff Lee started. Tim Lincecum was not Tim Lincecum and the Giants won. This was a great, huge win. I've always thought that because in all the other pitching matchups the Giants seem to have the advantage, if they won a game against Cliff Lee, they'd be in pretty great shape. Tomorrow's starter for the Rangers, C.J. Wilson, is a very good pitcher. It'll be interesting to see how the Giants do against him. Of course, we always have confidence in Matt Cain, who is very, very good and not average. The Giants should know to never take a World Series lead for granted. A Game 2 win and a 2-0 series lead would be delightful.

2010 World Series Preview: Giants vs. Rangers

2010-10-25T19:58:00.000-07:00

This will be a basic preview, evaluating both teams offensively and defensively and how they match up. Today we learned that Tim Lincecum will pitch in Game 1, Cain in Game 2, and Sanchez and Bumgarner will pitch in Texas for games 3 and 4, respectively. Okay, let's begin with the pitching.

Pitching

The headlines will all be about Lincecum vs. Lee in Game 1, but both teams have other quality starters. The Rangers' CJ Wilson will face Cain, Colby Lewis will face Sanchez, and Bumgarner will go against Tommy Hunter.

For Game 1, you probably have to give a slight edge to Lee, but both pitchers are so good, it really doesn't matter. In 3 starts so far this postseason, Lee has gone 24 innings, struck out 34 batters, and walked just 1. That's the thing about Lee: his command and location are impeccable and he almost never walks guys (his 1.003 WHIP, 10.28 K/BB and 0.8 BB/9 led the AL this year). It's hard to find any way to beat Cliff Lee, but the Giants will probably have to take a similar approach to what they did vs Roy Halladay. Since Lee will be in the strike zone, they need to be aggressive. Easier said than done of course, but patience will not work. Tim Lincecum is obviously a much different pitcher, as he'll count on the Texas hitters swinging at his nasty changeup to get strikeouts. This is going to be another great postseason pitching matchup.

After Game 1, it becomes pretty clear that while Texas has good starting pitching, it doesn't compare to the Giants staff. In Game 2, you have to like Matt Cain the edge over C.J. Wilson. When the playoffs started and Cain started to get a little more exposure, a bunch of "Matt Cain is actually lucky and pretty average" started popping up. It may be easy for national writers writers for other teams to make that observation because his FIP and xFIP* aren't too impressive (career 3.84 & 4.43), but it's simply not true. Cain does depend on his defense - he's a flyball pitcher who doesn't get a ton of strikeouts - but that doesn't have to mean he's an average pitcher, it just means he's a pitcher who relies on his defense. Consider that since 2007, Cain's highest ERA has been 3.76. That's 4 seasons of an ERA at or below 3.76. And his ERA+* in that same period has never dipped below 123. An ERA+ of 100 is average. That can't just be 4 years of coincidence. Matt Cain is a very good pitcher who relies on his defense and he's at his best when he locates that fastball. That is all. Glad I got that out of the way. His counterpart in this game, C.J. Wilson, seems to be the Rangers version of Jonathan Sanchez. Wilson led the AL in walks during the season, just like Sanchez, but he's able to get out of it because he strikes out a fair amount of guys and batters hit only .217 against him. Sounds a lot like Sanchez, huh? Because of all those walks, the Giants will need to be patient. Wilson is a very good pitcher who will be hard to hit.

So, C.J. Wilson = Jonathan Sanchez. And C.J. Wilson > Colby Lewis. I'm no good at math, but I think through the transitive property or something, that proves that Sanchez > Lewis. Sanchez can be inconsistent, yes. And I'm sure many have soured on him after that not-so-good outing in Game 6. But when he's on, like he has been for the better part of the last 2 months, he is GOOD. His strikeout rate this year, 9.5 K/9, was very good and he held batters to just a .204 average, best in the NL. Colby Lewis ain't no slouch, though. Lewis, as you may know, had a terrible major league career, went to Japan for a couple of years, then came back and had a great year for the Rangers. I can't pretend like I've seen a ton of Lewis, but his K/9 of 8.8 and 1.189 WHIP are quite good. This matchup is actually pretty good, and it will all depend on which Sanchez we see.

In Game 4, a big edge has to go to Bumgarner over Tommy Hunter. Hunter had a good year for the Rangers: 3.73 ERA, 1.242 WHIP, but his year was just a little better than average. His stuff isn't great (just 4.8 K/9), so he doesn't have the natural ability to overpower hitters. In 2 starts so far in this postseason, he's pitched 7.1 innings and has a 6.14 ERA. Bumgarner is more of a flyball pitcher who also relies on location but can get a strikeout when he needs to (7 K/9). So far, Bumgarner has shown great poise and ability to get out of stressful situations for a guy who's only 21 years old. He's gone 12.2 innings with 12 strikeouts and a 3.55 ERA in 2 starts and a relief appearance during this postseason.

One more note: The Giants probably have an edge in the bullpen too. Brian Wilson is the best closer in the league, and the Giants have several other guys like Sergio Romo, Ramon Ramirez, and Santiago Casilla, who, even though they haven't performed well so far in the postseason, had very, very good years. And I assume Javier Lopez's assignment for this series will be to come in and shutdown Josh Hamilton. The Rangers also have a very good closer, Neftali Feliz, and a few good arms in Darren O'Day, Darren Oliver, and Derek Holland, but the edge has to go the Giants.

Offense

The Rangers offense is their strength and it's very good. In the AL, they ranked 5th in runs scored, 6th in team slugging, 5th in HRs, and 5th in team OPS. Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Vladimir Guerrero, and David Murphy are all good hitters. Hamilton, the probable AL MVP, and Cruz are particularly scary. Guerrero can also be very dangerous.

We all know about the Giants offense: not very good, but definitely able to put enough runs to win games. Andres Torres and Freddy Sanchez started to get hot towards the end of the NLCS and Buster Posey had a pretty good series. Cody Ross was a god, but we'll have to see if he can keep that up. It'd be nice if the power guys, Huff and Burrell, got going because with them working, the Giants offense isn't so bad.

It's clear that the Rangers have a huge advantage here.

The DH

There's been quite a bit of debate over who should be the DH for the Giants when they play in Texas. Some like the idea of having Burrell do it so a better defensive outfielder can play. Some don't want to do that, because Burrell doesn't like to DH and says it affects his hitting. I don't buy into that way of thinking. Others want Sandoval as the DH because he seemed to be hitting well in his limited at-bats during the NLCS, but his defense kept him out of the lineup. I don't really know what I would do. In terms of having the best hitters in the lineup, having Sandoval DH and Burrell stay in LF is probably the best option. On the other hand, Burrell always gets taken out early for defense anyway, so if he is the designated hitter, that doesn't have to happen anymore. The other thing that comes into play is that I think Pablo Sandoval hasn't necessarily played his last game at 3B. His defense has been bad, but there aren't many great options over there, as Renteria is certainly not perfect and probably shouldn't be starting every game. In all likelihood, the DH duties will probably be split between Sandoval and Burrell.

Defense

I feel obligated to say something about the defense. The Giants don't make many errors, but they aren't a good defense. Really, Torres and Sanchez are probably the only above average defenders. Maybe Cody Ross, too. Buster Posey is solid of course. But the Rangers have a better defense. Elvis Andrus is great defensively and the entire infield defense isn't bad at all. However, for at least one of the games in SF, Vladimir Guerrero will be playing the outfield. That's gonna be interesting and if I were the Giants I'd hit it as much as I could to him. He doesn't move too well anymore.

Conclusion

On paper, the Rangers are the favorites. The Giants have better pitching, but it's not like the Rangers have a terrible staff. And the Rangers have a huge advantage on offense. So, it's a lot like the series against the Phillies. But as Giants fans, we know this team well and we know that the Giants can beat anyone. Their pitching is so good, that they can shut down the best offenses. And while the Giants' offense is usually pretty mediocre, they don't need to score a lot and they aren't incapable of scoring. The Phillies also had a good offense and a much better pitching staff than the Rangers, but the Giants outplayed them. This is going to be a very good series. Don't count on it going any less than 6 games.

*If you are unfamiliar with FIP, xFIP, or ERA+, you can click on those links for explanations.

2010 NLCS Game 6: SF 3, PHI 2

2010-10-23T22:16:00.000-07:00

The Giants are going to the World Series! The Giants have won the Pennant! The San Francisco Giants are representing the National League in the World Series! I could say it over and over again in thousands of different ways and I wouldn't be able to stop smiling. Really, I don't think it has sunk in completely and as with every great, important game, it's really hard to type out everything I'm feeling. The Giants. In the World Series. Wow.

I'll probably talk about the season as a whole and how the Giants got here, but first I should go through this great game. Obviously, coming into today, the Giants were leading the series 3-2. The Phillies had to win if they wanted to keep going, and the Giants could clinch a World Series spot with a win. But Jonathan Sanchez got off to a very rough start. After getting the leadoff hitter out, Sanchez walked Placido Polanco and gave up an RBI double to Chase Utley. The Phillies led 1-0 already. Ryan Howard then singled, moving Utley to 3rd, and Jayson Werth's sacrifice fly put the Phillies up 2-0. Two runs doesn't seem terrible, but Sanchez didn't seem too comfortable and you felt like his stuff just wasn't Dirty tonight. The Giants countered with a fairly weird 3rd inning. After a Jonathan Sanchez single, Torres hit a deep flyball to center field. Shane Victorino attempted a basket style catch, but couldn't hold on and the Giants had runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs. Freddy Sanchez put down a bunt that I actually LIKED, so runners were then on 2nd and 3rd. Aubrey Huff singled up the middle, scoring Sanchez, but Torres was out at the plate. The next play was very weird and great. Buster Posey hit a very weak ball to third base so Polanco had to rush the throw and Ryan Howard couldn't hold on. Huff was able to score and the Giants tied the game, 2-2. However, the bottom of the 3rd deserves it's own paragraph.

Sanchez started off the inning by walking Polanco but it got interesting when he hit Chase Utley. You'll remember that Utley and Sanchez have history. Last year, Sanchez buzzed a pitch by Utley's head and Utley didn't like it. He took a step towards the mound and was visibly upset. All he could do to retaliate was hit a home run later in the at bat. This time, Utley wasn't angry but as he jogged to first base, he flipped the baseball to Sanchez. Sanchez didn't really like it and started yelling towards Utley, and Utley did the same. Both benches ended up clearing, which seemed pretty silly because Sanchez didn't intentionally hit him. It was unacceptable that Sanchez lost his composure, but Utley deserves some blame too. Who flips the ball to the mound like that? He did it in a really annoying, cocky kind of way and it was passive aggressive. I can actually understand why Sanchez would take that personally. Anyway, Sanchez was just too worked up and his stuff was pretty wild, so he was taken out after just 2 innings.

The rest of the game was locked at 2-2, until the 8th, when Juan Uribe hit an opposite field home run to give the Giants a 3-2 lead. Oh boy. 8th Inning Weirdness at it's finest.

What a great game. Let's talk about the bullpen. Jeremy Affeldt? He did not have a good season, but that doesn't matter because he relieved Sanchez early and pitched 2 great innings. Madison Bumgarner? He came put of the 'pen and also delivered 2 great, scoreless innings. Javier Lopez? He's more handsome than you. And he's a helluva lefty. He pitched in every single game of this series, solely to shut down Utley and Howard, which he did. What a guy. Tim Lincecum? He wasn't too sharp, but I appreciate the effort, coming out of the bullpen after having pitched 2 days ago! And Brian Wilson? Well, he made sure that we were tortured until the very end, striking out Ryan Howard on an absolutely PERFECT pitch to win the pennant.

And Juan Uribe gets his own paragraph. This guy gets so much criticism, and a lot of it is justified, because he strikes out a lot and doesn't get on base a lot, but wow, he has some huge hits. Remember his homer off Broxton in LA? If you thought that was big, it was nothing compared to his shot tonight. With one swing, he will be remembered in Giants history forever. Beautiful.

It's been a great season and a great ride. Let's make it a historic season by winning 4 more games. I am so ready. The Giants are going to the 2010 World Series.

2010 NLCS Game 5: PHI 4, SF 2

2010-10-21T20:44:00.001-07:00

The 2010 Giants are in a great place. They are going back to Philadelphia, up 3 games to 2, with 2 quality starters going for them. The Phillies are a very good team, and will be hard to beat, but the Giants chances are more than fair. They have put themselves in a position to make it to the World Series. It could have happened tonight, but it didn't; they still have 2 more chances. It's more than any of us expected. We have a lot of exciting baseball to look forward to this weekend. But with all that positivity and good feeling, one fact remains: tonight's game was for the taking. It could have been won. It could have been over.

The Giants had some misfortune, some misplays, and some mismanagement in this game, all leading to a difficult loss. Before the 3rd inning, everything was looking good. Roy Halladay had only given up a run, but he just didn't seem strong. He wasn't getting the outside corner from the umpire, and he just didn't seem comfortable (we now know he had a groin injury as early as the 1st inning). And the Giants were hitting the ball hard off him. Unlike previous games in the playoffs, where the Giants weren't hitting with baserunners on, this time they were "hitting". The ball just kept getting caught. Whether it was Chase Utley's great leaping catch to prevent a potential Aubrey Huff double, or Jimmy Rollins getting to everything and throwing out everyone with his cannon of an arm, the Giants just weren't getting any breaks. There were certainly some bad at bats in this game (the 8th inning stands out), but in all, the SF batters were working the count and getting good wood on pitches in the zone. It just wasn't their night.

And yet the 2 runs they managed to score could have been enough. Lincecum was looking very good through 2 innings. And then the 3rd inning happened. The 7 and 8 hitters reached base. Halladay laid down a foul bunt that was called fair. Buster Posey threw to 3rd base to get the out, but Sandoval, who had been coming in to field the bunt, couldn't get his foot on the bag. The Giants were able to get the out at first, but that was it. Had the Giants gotten the out at 3rd, the Phillies would have complained very rightly that the bunt was foul. Instead, the play worked out just the way they wanted it to. And then Aubrey Huff added his name to the list of players this postseason who have made critical errors. Victorino hit a grounder to Huff, and it bounced up on him and away, allowing both runners to score. Victorino would then score on a single by Polanco. Lincecum got out of the nightmare inning, and was almost flawless for the following 4. It is technically true what the headlines are saying: Halladay did "outduel" Lincecum. But Lincecum could have easily held the Phillies to 1 or 2 runs without the weirdness that happened in the 3rd. He did look better than Halladay on the mound at least (partly because of Halladay's injury). And it would have been a different game, a game the Giants could have won.

One more thing to discuss before I end for the night: the decision to pitch Ramon Ramirez in the 9th, down by 1 run. Ramirez gave up an opposite field HR to Jayson Werth to lead off the inning, then got the next 3 outs. It is inconsequential now; the Giants failed to get a baserunner against Brad Lidge. But it is still worth talking about, because I believe it was a major blunder by manager Bruce Bochy. Brian Wilson should have been in the game. No question about it. He is the Giants best reliever. The Giants were at home, down by 1. It was the time to protect that 1 run deficit at all costs. And Ramon Ramirez has been good, but he isn't Brian Wilson, and Wilson NEEDS to pitch in those important situations. I can't think of reason against it. He had pitched in the last 2 games, but there is an off day tomorrow, so if the Giants lose, Wilson gets that rest (and if they win, he gets more than a week of rest). They were at home, so there is no situation where you'd want to save him for a save opportunity in extra innings. Once you get to the 9th at home, in a close game, you use your closer if his arm isn't falling off. Otherwise you'll use a lesser pitcher, and end up regretting it.

Something encouraging to take from this game: the top 2 spots in the lineup, Andres Torres and Freddy Sanchez, both looked very good swinging the bat. Torres worked a walk in the 1st inning, the first walk Halladay had issued to lead off a game. Hopefully both these guys will hit in Game 6. Well of course, hopefully EVERYONE will hit in Game 6.

2010 NLCS Game 4: SF 6, PHI 5

2010-10-20T21:30:00.000-07:00

Meowwwwwww!

Coming into this series, there was talk that Buster Posey was slumping and the Giants needed him to step up. I scoffed at that notion. I guess maybe it was technically true, but he was 1-for-11 in this series. Pretty much the definition of a small sample size. But if you were one of those people worried about Buster's "slump", he officially busted out of it, going 4-for-5, and getting the biggest hit in a game full of big hits. Sure, Juan Uribe hit the game winning sac fly, but Posey put Uribe in a great spot to give the Giants a 6-5 win. With Aubrey Huff on first base and 1 out, Posey had fallen behind Roy Oswalt (I'll explain why Oswalt was pitching a little later) 1-2. What came next was vintage Posey: he took a pitch on the outside of the plate and went the opposite way with it. He's only been around for less than a year, so it seems weird to call it vintage Posey, but I don't care, it was vintage Posey. Huff was now on 3rd with 1 out, and Uribe took care of it from there.

There's so much to talk about from this game. So many lead changes, so many big hits, quite a few torturous moments as well. I can start with the starting pitching. Madison Bumgarner's stat line doesn't look very good: 4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 Ks but he wasn't that bad. It's just, all of a sudden in the 5th inning, Bumgarner couldn't get anyone out. To leadoff the inning, he gave up two line drive singles. Then the pitcher was out on a sacrifice fly. Shane Victorino then hit another line drive single, scoring 1 run, but Carlos Ruiz was also tagged out at the plate. Two outs with a runner on 1st. Bumgarner then allowed what would be his final line drive single to Chase Utley. It was bizarre, and Bochy brought in Santiago Casilla. Unfortunately, it was more of the same as Casilla allowed a Polanco double to score both runners, giving the Phillies a 4-2 lead.

There were so many heroes from this game. We've already talked about Posey, who got the scoring started with an RBI single in the 1st, doubled home the Giants' second run in the 3rd, tagged out a runner at the plate, and had that crucial hit in the 9th. And Aubrey Huff went 3-for-5, constantly setting Posey up for those RBI hits, and bringing the Giants back within 1 run with an RBI single after Philly's big 4-run inning. Pablo Sandoval had what was the biggest hit of the game at the time, driving an opposite field double, giving the Giants a 5-4 lead. Sergio Romo gave up the game tying hit to Jayson Werth in the 8th, but he kept his composure and didn't give the Phillies the lead. Javier Lopez and Brian Wilson were mostly great, no surprise there. And in addition to winning the game, Juan Uribe made a great play to erase a hit at the start of the top of the 9th. It was truly a team effort.

This turned out to be one of the greatest Giants games I've ever seen. The lead changed so many times, and the Giants missed so many opportunities, but the 9th inning was extremely intense. If the Giants had lost this game, all of a sudden they'd have to win 2 out of 3 vs Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels. Not an easy thing to do. And the Phillies knew the importance of the game too. Hell, they even brought in Oswalt, the scheduled game 6 starter, out of the bullpen. Everything was on the line. So when Aubrey Huff singled, Buster Posey did what he does, and Juan Uribe hit one deep enough to score Huff, the energy was unreal. It doesn't get much better than a walk-off win in Game 4 of the NLCS to bring your team within 1 game of the World Series. Hopefully, it does get even better tomorrow night. The Giants now need to win just 1 of the next 3, and while they're facing the best team in baseball tomorrow, it's a pitching matchup they've already won. Beating Roy Halladay twice in one week is almost unheard of, but Lincecum's no slouch and the Giants are playing at home this time. It's tough not to get excited. Win it tomorrow at home. One more time.

2010 NLCS Game 3: SF 3, PHI 0

2010-10-19T17:15:00.001-07:00

Bruce Bochy did something rather strange for the game today: He completely shuffled the lineup. Suddenly Edgar Renteria was hitting 1st, Posey was up to 3rd, Burrell up to 4th, Ross up to the 5th spot, Huff (against a lefty) got moved down to 6th, and Aaron Rowand replaced Andres Torres in center field. I wasn't sure what to make of this. It felt like a panic move, a very odd thing to suddenly do in the playoffs. And even though the Giants only managed 5 hits and 3 runs off Cole Hamels, the order of the lineup had an effect. By putting the hottest hitter, Cody Ross, in the 5th spot, the Giants ended up in a situation in the 4th inning with 2 runners on and Ross at the plate. And Ross hit a line shot into left field to give the Giants their first run, moving over Pat Burrell, who would score on Aubrey Huff's single in the next at bat. The Giants would score another run in the 5th thanks to Aaron Rowand's double and Chase Utley's misplay on a Freddy Sanchez grounder. But the Ross RBI was all the Giants ever needed, because Matt Cain was on the mound.

Cain was brilliant especially when you consider the lineup he was facing. Utley has always hit him well, and Ryan Howard, contrary to the way he looked in Game 1, is hitting the ball well. Cain ended up walking 3 Phillies, which led to some tense innings with runners on. But he's used to that. He strands runners all the time. Cain was able (hehehe) to get out of those jams because the Phillies simply weren't hitting the ball hard against him. There were a couple line drives to infielders, a few long fly balls, and the long single that Rollins got off the right field wall. The other hit was a bloop single by Ryan Howard. And that was it. Everything else was quiet and easy. He finished 7 shutout innings, with only the 2 hits. Not the greatest performance by Cain at all; he's had better stuff and command on some days. But in another way, the best performance considering that. In a 7 game series tied 1-1, against a good offense and facing a very good pitcher, Cain was money. He showed up, and he got through 7 innings completely unscathed. All you could have asked of him and more.

Charlie Manuel can keep hitting Polanco third; Javier Lopez will just keep getting him, Utley, and Howard out. If the Giants win the World Series, could a huge part of the redemption of Brian Sabean really involve the acquistion a left handed specialist?

I would expect to see Andres Torres back in the lineup tomorrow against Joe Blanton. It will also be interesting to see if Bochy goes to Sandoval in favor of Uribe. I have a feeling he will. The Giants SHOULD have a major edge tomorrow in the matchup between Blanton and Bumgarner, but we'll see what happens.

Oh, and Raul Ibanez looks TERRIBLE at the plate. Just awful.

2010 NLCS Game 2: PHI 6, SF 1

2010-10-17T21:56:00.001-07:00

Jonathan Sanchez pitched very well in Game 2, especially considering what he faced. The strike zone was terribly inconsistent and the defense by the Giants was painful to watch. The results were good, and could have been a lot better if those factors hadn't been in play. Sanchez a year ago would have fallen apart in the face of that; tonight, he limited damage in a potentially explosive 1st inning, and got stronger throughout the game. But none of it mattered, because the Giants (sans Cody Ross) simply could not hit Roy Oswalt. Looking at the game now, you had to figure it would be hard for the Giants offense to score against both Oswalt and Halladay. It's simply not likely for two great pitchers to give up many runs to a weak offense in back to back days.

Andres Torres struck out 4 times tonight. This is an issue. But what is to be done? He hasn't been the same since his appendix operation, and he was probably already going cold before that. In the playoffs, he has been pretty terrible at the plate; a few balls have been hit hard and caught for outs, but for the most part he just can't make contact at all. The thought of Aaron Rowand taking his spot scares me, but I wouldn't hate it if it was just for one game, to see what happens. But we have to remember something: Torres might look awful at the plate right now, but he is still a Gold glove caliber centerfielder, playing with an immobile left fielder. He still has value, and more than just a little. The best thing that could happen would be a change of approach, where he tries to go for contact more and use his speed. But who knows if a 32 year old career minor leaguer is capable of making an adjustment like that.

Cody Ross was the only true offensive force tonight, hitting his 3rd HR of the series. He just missed a 4th later in the game as well. It'll be fun to see what he can do against Hamels, a lefty who he has crushed, on Tuesday.

Even though Jeremy Affeldt struck out Ryan Howard in the 7th inning with runners on, I thought it was a strange move. Here was Ryan Howard, the powerful hitter who just can't hit lefties much, and Bochy leaves Lopez in the bullpen. What was he waiting for? Anyway, after Howard struck out, they intentionally walked Jayson Werth to get to Jimmy Rollins. And Rollins did something he's barely done all year: hit. The game was over after his bases clearing double. The Giants would get some baserunners on, but they really had no shot. They can be very happy with the 1 win they got in Philly: they now have 3 in SF, and 3 very winnable games. I will say, I'm looking forward to tomorrow when I can watch baseball without the nerves. Cliff Lee and his undefinable K/BB ratio, at Yankee Stadium? Sounds good to me.

Oh, and Raul Ibanez looks terrible at the plate. Just miserable.

2010 NLCS Game 1: SF 4, PHI 3

2010-10-16T20:05:00.000-07:00

So much has been made of the fact that most of these Giants have no postseason experience. We've all heard about how this is Aubrey Huff's first postseason in his professional career. Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner are rookies who made great contributions during the regular season and have delivered so far in the postseason. Jonathan Sanchez clinched a playoff spot for the Giants and pitched a gem in his first ever postseason start. Tim Lincecum pitched one of the best games in playoff history. But nobody has talked about Cody Ross, who has also never been to the playoffs. It makes sense; he wasn't particularly impressive during the regular season, but he is quickly becoming the offensive hero for the Giants this postseason. In game 1 of the NLDS, he drove in the only run of the game. In game 4, he hit a home run to break up Derek Lowe's no-hitter and drove in the eventual game-winning run. And tonight, he hit 2 home runs off of the best pitcher in all of baseball, a pitcher who had just thrown a no-hitter in his last start. Even Mat Latos thinks that was a pretty great waiver claim.

Obviously, the big story coming into this game was the starting pitching. Both Lincecum and Halladay had pitched historic games the week before, and this was the most anticipated playoff pitching matchup in a long time. Neither pitcher was as dominant as last week, but they were both pretty good. The box score probably doesn't even show how good they were because the strike zone was ridiculous for both pitchers all night. Really, it was horrendous, but it's been talked about enough, so I won't elaborate. Still, besides a couple of mistakes to Cody Ross, a Pat Burrell RBI double (that Raul Ibanez probably should've caught) and a Juan Uribe single up the middle, Halladay was pretty good. Besides a couple of home runs from Carlos Ruiz and Jayson Werth that probably wouldn't have been homers at AT&T Park, Lincecum was great. His final line looked like this: 7 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, and 8 Ks.

Bruce Bochy made some decisions that were again criticized, and I'll quickly defend him one more time. His decision to use Nate Schierholtz as a pinch runner for Pat Burrell in the top of the 6th was not received well. It would've normally been pretty early to take out Burrell, but on Uribe's single up the middle, Schierholtz scored and Pat Burrell would not have. It was the decisive run in the game. Bochy also brought in Brian Wilson for a 4-out save, and I don't know why people would have a problem with it, but some did. Brian Wilson was the best reliever in the National League during the regular season. That should be the end of that argument.

Lastly, I hate pointing out the negatives in a win, but with the bases loaded in the 9th inning and 1 out, Andres Torres had an abysmal at bat. He swung at 3 straight sliders, two of which were very much out of the zone. Torres had a great season, but that can't happen again. That could've ended very badly for the Giants.

I lied, that wasn't the last thing I'm going to say. That win was huge. I mean, you should never expect to win a game against the Phillies in Philadelphia when Roy Halladay is pitching. And the Giants have what could be a very favorable matchup tomorrow with Jonathan Sanchez pitching against Philly's lefty-heavy lineup. So today's game was huge. It may not have been a 0-0 pitcher's duel, but it certainly lived up to the hype.

NLCS Preview: Giants, Phillies, and the Significance of Matchups

2010-10-15T14:37:00.000-07:00

In less than 24 hours, the Giants and Phillies will begin Game 1 of the 2010 NLCS at Citizen's Bank Park. We've waited long enough; the Giants won Game 4 of the NLDS against Atlanta all the way back on Monday. But before Andres Torres doubles off Roy Halladay on the 2nd pitch of the game tomorrow, let's take a look at some important players in the series. I'll give the pitching matchups for each of the first 4 games, then expand within that context to key position players:

Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum - I'd like to think that the Giants could repeat what they did to Halladay in April this season, getting 10 hits off him and handing him his 1st loss. This is unlikely, though. There's no reason to think that a Hall of Fame pitcher like that can't shut down the Giants. Then again, there's no better reason to think he'll throw another no hitter. If the Giants do hit him, it will be thanks to an aggressive approach. Halladay is always in the strike zone. His season high for walks was 3, and he only did it twice. On the other hand, he gave up 10+ hits in 7 starts (but not a ton of runs in those games, strangely).

In the 7th month of Tim Lincecum's "worst" year as a pitcher, he is in fact as good as he has ever been. His playoff debut showed that. There are 4 Phillies with 15+ PAs against Tim: Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Victorino. The latter 3 all have done very little against him, hitting below .200. Howard, on the other hand, has 3 HRs off him, with a .409 OBP in 22 PAs. If you remember Lincecum's 1st start in the big leagues, it was at AT&T Park against the Phillies. He went 4+ innings, giving up 5 hits, 5 runs, 5 walks, and striking out 5 (these were the days when he was throwing 99 with little command). 2 of those 5 runs came on a shot Howard hit over the center field wall. Howard's high OBP in that very small sample size wouldn't be so concerning if he wasn't also slugging nearly .900. Even with only 22 PAs, it's a match up to be wary of. It would be fair to say that Halladay and Lincecum are pretty much evenly matched for this game.

Roy Oswalt and Jonathan Sanchez - Oswalt struggled in his start against Cincinnati, and this, combined with his 1-3 record against the Giants this season, makes him appear to be a better matchup for SF than he actually is. Sure, he has a 1-3 record, but he pitched well against them in each of those starts, not great, but well. These two games in Philly will not be easy to win with the pitchers they have on the mound.

Jonathan Sanchez pitched masterfully against Philadelphia at CBP in August, and that is part of the reason for him getting the Game 2 start rather than Matt Cain. There isn't much to be said for Sanchez's numbers against the Phillies' batters, because of the small sample size (yes, that is a theme today), but the fact that he is a lefty power pitcher against a lineup with 3 good hitter left handed hitters is something. On second thought, we can eliminate one of those lefties from the situation: Chase Utley hits better off left handed pitchers than right handers. Slightly less power, but better on base, resulting in a rare 8 point same sided wOBA platoon advantage. Howard is the opposite. Despite okay platoon numbers in a short season this year, he is notoriously poor against left handers. Raul Ibanez's platoon difference isn't as drastic, but this could be for the simple fact that Ibanez isn't nearly the hitter Howard is overall; Howard still rakes righties. Because two of their important hitters having this weakness, Sanchez could have good success on Sunday.

Cole Hamels and Matt Cain - Hamels' numbers against the Giants are not good, especially at AT&T. But the decision to pitch him in Game 3 rather than 2 is right in my estimation. Hamels gives up more HRs than most other good pitchers, including Oswalt. There's little reason to think that Hamels simply can't pitch at AT&T, a better park for limiting HRs than CBP. His poor numbers are simply not indicative of much. Hamels could very well pitch another shutout on Tuesday afternoon. He's that good. One player on the Giants that does have significant appearances against Hamels is Cody Ross, from his time in Florida. And he has hit Hamels well, which is no surprise given Ross' great propensity to hit left handers. Perhaps he will be a hero once again.

Ryan Howard has great numbers against Lincecum, but Chase Utley has arguably more of an edge on Matt Cain, hitting .467 with 3 HRs in 15 PAs. Once again, 15 is very small, but it's hard not to remember the time Cain nearly hit Utley in the head with a fastball (unintentionally) and Utley got back in the box and homered into McCovey Cove. Cain is pitching Game 3 because he is more of a flyball pitcher than Sanchez, although Sanchez gives up more HRs per flyball and walks more batters. I would have picked Cain to start in Philly simply because I believe he is better prepared mentally for such a start. If I can venture into pseudo sports psychology for a moment, I'll borrow the good idea that a fellow Giants fan on Twitter had, that Cain could use his "demotion" to the 3rd spot as motivation to be extra sharp. I normally don't bother with theories of extra motivation like that, because athletes have enough motivation in Game 3 of a postseason series. But for Cain I'll make the exception. I think he goes out and shows everyone just how strong he is.

Joe Blanton and Madison Bumgarner - If there is one game that the Giants are the favorites in, it is Game 4. While many would say that Philly's top 3 edge out each of the top 3 in the Giants rotation, there is no question that Bumgarner, only 21, is a better pitcher than Blanton. Blanton, with a 4.83 ERA this season, and 4.30 lifetime, is potentially more dangerous as a starter to the Phillies than Zito would be to the Giants. None of his postseason starts the last couple years have been disastrous, but he'll probably have a short leash. If somehow the Giants held a 2-1 lead going into Game 4, I wouldn't be surprised to see Roy Halladay pitch. Yes, they wouldn't be facing elimination in that game, but if they lose, they have to face Lincecum the next day.

With the blister on his finger, it might be hard for the Giants to pitch Lincecum on short rest in Game 4 should they face the same situation. No matter the series situation, Bumgarner will almost surely be the starter. He hasn't pitched well at home, but that is once again just a product of randomness. Logic just doesn't support the idea that a pitcher would naturally be incapable of pitching well in a neutral park like AT&T. Bumgarner is only 21, and he very well could struggle against the Phillies, but I think he is one of the wild cards for the Giants. He is a rare example of something the Giants have that the other team doesn't: a more than decent 4th starter.

A few thoughts on some players not yet mentioned - Ryan Howard has declined as a player, and hitter, this year, and Jayson Werth has become the Phillies 2nd most dangerous hitter behind Utley. He strikes out a lot, which is good because the Giants pitchers are all strikeout pitchers to a certain degree. But if he gets hot, he hits the ball FAR. And team that hit ball far, go far.

Earlier in the season, the Giants were known as a team that you could steal on, mainly because their pitchers didn't have great pickoff moves or fast deliveries to the plate. Then teams suddenly started getting caught a bit more. Gerald Demp just wasn't havin it. The Phillies are one of the best base stealing teams by percentage, and Shane Victorino is the most prolific. Remember the Lincecum debut I detailed above? Well, in that game, Victorino was picked off, and managed to avoid being tagged by running straight towards the pitcher's mound, then back toward 2nd base. He wasn't called for running out of the baseline. On Sunday Night Baseball, Joe Morgan called this "ESTABLISHING the baseline here, then ESTABLISHING it here". Ever since then, I've hated Victorino. Blame Joe Morgan and that awful explanation.

We're gonna have to watch out for Carlos Ruiz; he's apparently become something of a cult hero in Philadelphia. And for good reason: he's had a great season as their catcher, hitting .302/.400/.447. Yes, a .400 OBP for a catcher many of you may not have heard of.

I'm gonna finish with a look at both bullpens, with a few more thoughts on lefty matchups. Earlier today, Andrew Baggarly wrote about the importance of the Giants bullpen lefties in this series. With Howard, Ibanez, and Utley (Bochy will likely still go with that matchup for Utley even though it is wrong), the Giants will be needing more than Javier Lopez. Jeremy Affeldt will be on the roster, and possibly Dan Runzler.

The bullpen is the one area where the Giants are undoubtedly stronger. Brad Lidge has not had a great season, but has pitched well lately, and was able to brush his playoff demons aside the last two postseasons with the Phillies. Brian Wilson, however, is a better closer right now, period. Other than Lidge, the only legitimately good reliever they have is Ryan Madsen. The Giants bullpen isn't perfect at all, but they have at least a few Ryan Madsens: Ramon Ramirez, Santiago Casilla, and Sergio Romo. Yes, Sergio Romo. Now is not the time to give one of our best relievers the "Joe Nathan Felipe Alou" treatment.

Should the Giants Make Any Roster Changes for the NLCS?

2010-10-13T18:47:00.001-07:00

Actually, the Giants have already made one change.

Today we learned that after Tim Lincecum pitches game 1 of the series, Jonathan Sanchez will be pitching Game 2 and Matt Cain will go for Game 3. Cain is still a better pitcher than Sanchez, but I see the reasoning behind the move. In his only start of the year in Philadelphia, Sanchez was rather brilliant. In 8 innings he allowed just 2 hits and 1 ER with 2 BB and 7 Ks. The Phillies' ballpark is also very small, and Sanchez does give up fewer flyballs than Cain, even though the difference isn't huge. The Phillies lineup has a lot of left-handed hitters too. Ryan Howard, one of Philly's best hitters, is significantly worse facing left-handed pitching and has always had trouble against Sanchez (3-for-14, 7 Ks). However, Sanchez does allow more baserunners and is generally more erratic. I don't really have a problem with the move, but I guess after all of these great starts, I'm waiting for bad Sanchez to come back. Cain is more consistent and I generally have much more confidence in him than Sanchez.

As for the rest of the pitching staff, it doesn't look like anything will change. I will not back down on my stance that Zito should be on the roster, but I realize the fight is over. In a 7 game series a long reliever is even more important and Guillermo Mota wasn't even used in the NLDS. I don't see the harm in having Zito, just in case. But the Giants, like many fans, don't seem to think Zito can effectively pitch out of the bullpen. It's okay, I'm over it.

It is also unlikely that any changes will made for position players even though the offense was atrocious against Atlanta. I guess there's not much they can do besides playing better. When Jose Guillen was originally left off the roster, it seemed like it was because he wasn't healthy, but the situation still seemed a little unclear to me. Would Guillen have made the roster if he was healthy or was it because the Giants wanted someone more versatile on defense? I think a healthy Guillen would have made it. We haven't heard anything about Guillen's health, so I assume he's still hurting. If healthy, I still think he's a better option than Rowand, particularly since Rowand was just used as a pinch-hitter, not a defensive replacement in the NLDS.

So.....I guess this post just told you that Cain and Sanchez switched spots in the rotation, which you probably already knew. Oh well. Keep an eye out for NLCS Pitching and Offense Previews in the next couple of days.

2010 NLDS Game 4: SF 3, ATL 2

2010-10-11T20:38:00.000-07:00

The San Francisco Giants have beaten the Atlanta Braves in the 2010 NLDS, and will move on to face the Philadelphia Phillies for the NL pennant. It will be a tough task for the Giants: Philly has won the the last 2 pennants, and they are probably better than they have ever been in the past 3 years. We will have previews for the NLCS throughout the week, leading up to Game 1 on Saturday at Citizen's Bank Park. Right now, though, we need to look back at this game, another game where the Giants somehow got past the Braves.

Bruce Bochy went with Madison Bumgarner instead of Tim Lincecum today, and Bumgarner did what he was supposed to do. He wasn't perfect, but he kept the Giants close in a game where the hitters looked completely puzzled by Derek Lowe. Bumgarner had a normal game for him, giving up some hits, but only walking 1 (An up and coming Cliff Lee perhaps? Probably not, but I can dream). Brian McCann hit a sacrifice fly for the Braves first run in the 3rd inning. The game stayed 1-0 until Cody Ross homered in the 6th inning. A big moment for Ross, the last "mercenary" added to the Giants this season. Bochy decided to keep Bumgarner in the game, and in the bottom of the 6th inning, Brian McCann once again did the damage, hitting the first pitch he saw into the bleachers. Yet Bochy still stuck with Bumgarner, and he was able to finish the inning. He pitched 6 good innings for the Giants on the road in the playoffs. That's a lot for a 21 year old rookie.

In the top of the 7th inning, the Giants finally got to Derek Lowe, or as the TBS broadcasters affectionately called him, "Derrek Lee". Lowe simply lost his command, walking Aubrey Huff, giving up an infield single to Buster Posey, and then walking Pat Burrell. Juan Uribe then hit a ball into the hole at shortstop. It was a tough play, and a double play was going to be impossible, so the Giants definitely had tied the game. But Alex Gonzalez's throw to 2nd base pulled Omar Infante off the bag, and everyone was safe. Aaron Rowand pinch hit for Mike Fontenot, and struck out. But then Cody Ross came up again, and was the hero as he singled into right field. Posey scored, and it took a great throw to cut down Pat Burrell at the plate. The Giants had taken the lead. Santiago Casilla worked a good 7th inning, then came out for the 8th. With 1 out, Bochy somewhat strangely kept Casilla in to face the best hitter on Atlanta, the left handed hitting McCann. McCann singled. It would have been better to go to Javier Lopez at that time. But Casilla got Alex Gonzalez to ground out (Gonzalez has been a huge disappointment for Atlanta), and then Bochy went to Lopez to get Heyward. And Lopez struck him out. The Giants hit into 2 double plays in the 8th and 9th innings, so 1 run was going to have to be enough for Brian Wilson. Wilson didn't have a clean 9th inning, thanks to a once again inconsistent strike zone. He walked 2 batters with 1 out, but then struck out Infante, and got Melky Cabrera to ground into the series winning force out.

2010 NLDS Game 3: SF 3, ATL 2

2010-10-10T17:17:00.000-07:00

The San Francisco Giants showed tonight that they can rally back just as well as the Atlanta Braves, with a little help and a few errahs. Through 7, the star of the game was Jonathan Sanchez, who exceeded all possible expectations for his playoff debut. I was worried last night that Sanchez just might not be able to handle the pressure of a playoff game on the road. As good as he has been, he isn't Cain or Lincecum. But Sanchez was more than able to handle it. He was superb, striking out 11 Braves in 7.1 innings of work, allowing only 2 hits (and none till Tim Hudson's 6th inning single) and most importantly, only 1 walk. With Barry Zito being dropped from the rotation and NLDS roster, the Giants asked for Sanchez to be something of a third ace, and he delivered. The Giants held a 1-0 lead after 7 1/2 innings. They had made Tim Hudson work, but only had the one run to show for it, hitting dismally with runners in scoring position.

It looked like maybe 1 was gonna have to be enough, as happened in Game 1. But as we said before, Sanchez, at his best, still isn't Lincecum, so Bruce Bochy couldn't keep him on the mound forever. With 1 out and a runner on in the 8th inning, it appeared Bobby Cox was going to have Troy Glaus pinch hit. Bochy brought in Sergio Romo, and Cox promptly pulled back Glaus in favor of left handed hitting Eric Hinske. Hinske, after falling behind in the count, got a hanging changeup and homered just left of the foul pole in right field, to give the Braves a 2-1 lead. This was a crushing blow. The question is, did Bruce Bochy make a mistake?

Well, maybe. Although I think it would have been ridiculous for Bochy to not let Romo pitch simply because of a bad outing on Friday, facing Hinske wasn't a great matchup at all. But would Jonathan Sanchez against Troy Glaus have been safer? I don't know. And when Romo was brought in, and Hinske was announced, there was no way to fix it. Romo had to face him. It was hard to watch Bochy get out managed there by Bobby Cox, but I can't honestly say how I'd have done it differently. And you'll see soon, that Cox using Glaus AND Hinske in that 8th inning did not help him later.

Because the Giants would not be put away. Travis Ishikawa worked a walk with 1 out in the 9th. Andres Torres struck out on a very questionable pitch. Then Freddy Sanchez singled up the middle. The Giants had hope. And Aubrey Huff, the best hitter all year, but slumping badly so far in the series, reached out and pulled a ball into right field that Jason Heyward just couldn't quite get to. Ishikawa scored and the game was tied. Then Buster Posey came up, and he too reached for a pitch, hitting it somewhat hard towards 2nd baseman Brooks Conrad. And Conrad, the poor guy, did what he had been doing all game. He fucked it up. He let the ball go under his glove. The Giants took the lead with 2 outs in the top of the 9th, a completely improbable happening.

Bochy went to his closer, Brian Wilson, to get the final 3 outs against the heart of the Braves order. Wilson struck out Jason Heyward on a very low outside fastball. Heyward had reason to complain, but then again so did Andres Torres in the top of the inning. Derrek Lee, who just is not a scary hitter anymore, popped up. Brian McCann, the one big threat in the Braves lineup, singled on a groundball that Freddy Sanchez ranged to get to, but couldn't handle. The Braves would have had Matt Diaz coming up, but he was replaced for defense in the top of the inning by Nate McClouth. Perhaps if Bobby Cox hadn't used two of his powerful pinch hitters in the 8th inning, the weak hitting McClouth could have been replaced. But he had to bat, and grounded out to end the game. It looked like the Giants couldn't lose Friday's game, but they managed to. After Hinske's Turner shaking HR in the 8th, there seemed to be no way for the Giants, who had been quiet with the bats all day, to win this game. But they managed to.

This means Madison Bumgarner will pitch tomorrow instead of Tim Lincecum. It's the right move. Considering it is not an elimination game, there is no reason to pitch Lincecum on short rest. In the case that he is tired and the Giants lose, they have to win Game 5 without him. Instead, they go with a very competent pitcher, Bumgarner, and try to win. And if they don't, they have Lincecum fully rested on Tuesday at AT&T for Game 5.

2010 NLDS Game 2: ATL 5, SF 4

2010-10-08T22:31:00.000-07:00

That really hurt.

I honestly don't want to re-live this game by writing about it, but I'll do it for all two of you who can't live without our recaps (Just kidding, I know we have thousands of readers. You all just aren't the commenting types). Anyway, if there was one thing that you could complain about from last night's game, it would be the lack of offense. Well tonight, the offense got started early. In the 1st inning, with 2 runners on, Pat Burrell hit another huge home run to give the Giants a 3-0 lead right away. They added another run in the next inning, making the score 4-0. With another good pitching performance, 4 runs should've been enough.

And Matt Cain did pitch well. He wasn't nearly as good as Lincecum, but no one was expecting that. Cain's final line looked like this: 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 Ks. Not a bad outing at all and Cain gave the Giants a great chance to win.

The only thing is, the normally dominant bullpen did not come through at all tonight. In the 8th inning with the score at 4-1, set up man Sergio Romo came in and quickly allowed 2 singles and was taken out. Bruce Bochy decided to bring in Brian Wilson for a 6-out save. Not too many people seemed to disagree with the move at the time. And you know what? It was the right move. After having 5 days off, Wilson had plenty of energy to go for 2 innings and in a pressure situation, you want your best pitcher in the game. Unfortunately, a throwing error from Pablo Sandoval allowed a run to score. 4-2. Then after a sac bunt, leaving runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out, Wilson allowed a 2-run double off the bat of Alex Gonzalez. Score tied 4-4. All of a sudden, people were going crazy angry, criticizing Bochy for bringing in Wilson for a 6-out save when he's never done it before. Pretty convenient, huh? Listen, I don't care if closers are supposed to get the save in the 9th inning. That 8th inning situation was the real save situation. Putting in your best pitcher there is the right move. And remember, Pablo Sandoval's throwing error was HUGE. That wasn't Wilson's fault. If they get out of that situation with the lead, more than likely they win that game. Unfortunately, he didn't get it done tonight, but I still trust him more than anyone in the 'pen to get it done on most nights. And we need to mention that this is why it was the right move to let Lincecum finish the game last night. Lincecum is a great pitcher, and while this bullpen is pretty good, bullpens are never a sure thing. Great pitchers usually are.

You know, I've always been a person who criticizes a lot of Bochy's moves. But after seeing the way some people criticize his moves without any merit, I feel sorry for the guy. Tonight, he was also criticized for taking out Pat Burrell to start the 7th. We all know Burrell isn't great defensively and when you're facing a very bad offense and you have a great pitching staff and a 3-run lead, defense needs to become a bigger priority. It was absolutely the right move to bring in Schierholtz at that point. He was criticized for bringing in Sergio Romo to start the 8th. Damn you Bochy for not using that big ol' head of yours to predict the future! How could you not know that Sergio would allow 2 singles with no outs?? I mean, seriously? Romo has been the 8th inning set up man for the last few months of the season. Bochy managed this game exactly the same way he has all year. Why are the things that have worked all year being criticized today? Because they didn't work? Because a bad defensive player makes a costly error? How is that Bochy's fault? Sometimes the PLAYERS mess up. Sometimes the things that have always gone right, go wrong. It happens. You can't just choose to blame the manager any time you want. Bochy has definitely made a lot of questionable moves and maybe sometimes he gets a little lucky, but he did manage this team to 92 wins and the playoffs this year. This loss was entirely NOT his fault.

Of course, even a bad offense will score if you give them enough chances, and that's what the Braves did. Rick Ankiel hit a ball off Ramon Ramirez into the cove, giving the Braves the 5-4 lead. Even more frustrating, the inning before, with the bases loaded and 1 out, our God, our savior, Buster Posey, grounded into the inning ending double play. Didn't see that coming. Very, very painful. Fuckin' Bochy.

I'm bitter. Rick Ankiel is going on the Hate List, even though I'm not sure he's worthy. But bitterness makes you irrational and I'm okay with that.

FJM Friday: This Isn't Really Fair...

2010-10-08T15:24:00.000-07:00

...but we're gonna do it anyway. Before Tim Lincecum had one of the best playoff pitching performances ever, Cam Inman wrote a piece where he tried to argue that Tim Lincecum can't be expected to pitch well in his postseason debut. A very fair thing to say, but the reasons he listed were awful, and warranted this short FJM Friday post. Note that had Lincecum not pitched well yesterday, Inman would have still been wrong.

Giants ace Tim Lincecum gets his turn tonight. To pitch a no hitter as Roy Halladay did in his postseason debut? Whoa, hold on there.

Yeah, about that...

Now is a great time to temper those enormous expectations of Lincecum...Lincecum did not pitch great in his first big-league debut. Or in his first Giants season opener. Or in his first All-Star Game. He made lackluster first impressions on those big stages. Tonight's platform looms larger.

It's quite fair to temper expectations for Lincecum, as with any pitcher. But the examples he cites as predictive are ludicrous (really any examples that supposedly would contain a predictive quality would be foolish). Lincecum is a completely different pitcher than the one that debuted against the Phillies in 2007. So he had a bad 2009 season opener. So what? And the All Star Game means nothing. It's not even a real game. You could point to as many games where Lincecum has performed well in pressure situations (and that would be wrong also). He pitched very well in the 2010 season opener. He was amazing this September in a pennant stretch. Anything could have happened yesterday; he happened to pitch like Bob Gibson. There was no way of seeing it coming. But there was certainly no reason to think he wouldn't pitch like that because of a poor performance in April of 2009.

It may go great, like Halladay's. Or perhaps he will follow in the Giants franchise lore of Christy Mathewson, whose playoff debut came in the 1905 World Series and featured 3 shutout victories in 6 days.

That's more like it.

2010 NLDS Game 1: SF 1, ATL 0

2010-10-07T21:18:00.001-07:00

The San Francisco Giants have won Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS against the Atlanta Braves. There will be talk tonight of the blown call at 2nd base on Buster Posey's attempted steal, and how he came around to score the only run of the game. But not here. As important as these issues of instant replay are, I can't bring myself to even worry one bit about it, in the face of what we just saw. We just saw something incredible, folks.

Tim Lincecum: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 14 K, 119 pitches, Game Score of 96

It was gonna be hard to top Roy Halladay's postseason debut from yesterday. But Tim Lincecum may have just done it. Lincecum, with a game score of 96 today, achieved the 3rd highest ever in playoff history. The word dominant does not do it justice. It is the kind of game that becomes legendary in a team's history. In the 150+ year history of baseball, performances like this have happened only a handful of times. Only the very best can do this. Tim Lincecum won 2 Cy Young awards in 2008 and 2009. Then, this season, he went through almost a 4 month slump. People wondered if he would ever be the same. Since September, he is as good as he has ever been. And doing it in games that mean more than they have ever meant. I can't say much more about it. I'm speechless.

Of course, part of the reason Lincecum's line looks so impressive is because he finished the game. There was quite a debate on twitter about whether or not this was wise, with a lot of good points both ways. Here's how I see it: Yes, Brian Wilson is a very good closer, and yes, the Braves are not good offensively. But I think that anytime your best pitcher can pitch, in a close playoff game, you let him. You take no chances. It's very possible that Lincecum's extended outing tonight (119 pitches) could keep him from pitching on short rest this series, should the Giants need that. But 119 pitches isn't a TERRIBLY long outing, and he very rarely threw stressful pitches. And maybe I just don't feel the same way as everyone else about Brian Wilson. He's a great pitcher, but I think the only closer you can call "automatic" is Rivera. Lincecum, in my estimation, is far more of a sure thing than Wilson, even over 100 pitches. My main point is that a playoff game is not the time to save your pitchers. Postseason might last a month, but it goes by FAST, and if you don't do everything in every game to win, you'll regret it.

HEY! THE BATS NEED TO WAKE UP FOR TOMORROW! SCORE SOME RUNS! THIS COULD HAVE EASILY BEEN A VERY UGLY, PAINFUL GAME!

NLDS Roster Update

2010-10-07T13:04:00.000-07:00

The roster has been set and announced. You can see the roster and Andrew Baggarly's analysis here.

No Jose Guillen, which is a bit of a surprise. Apparently his neck may be bothering him more than we thought. And no Barry Zito. I think you know our position on that decision by now. Mota, Rowand, Ishikawa, and Renteria are all in.

Discuss in the comments section if you'd like.

2010 MLB Awards

2010-10-06T16:58:00.001-07:00

The playoffs have already started, and Roy Halladay has already thrown only the 2nd no hitter in postseason history. Before anything else historic happens, 8th Inning Weirdness is here to give you their picks for the 2010 regular season awards. In honor of today's extraordinary achievement, we will start in the NL, with the Cy Young award. You'll notice, by the way, how much more interested I am in the Cy Young debates than anything else.

Note: I decided to skip the AL Rookie of the Year award, because I just don't watch the AL enough, and anyway, there weren't a ton of great candidates like there were in the NL. Just give it to a rookie closer. Neftali Feliz? That'll do.

NL Cy Young Winner: Roy Halladay
2nd: Adam Wainwright
3rd: Ubaldo Jimenez
4th: Josh Johnson
5th: Roy Oswalt

If you've done your reading, you know that this future Hall of Famer is pretty much the unanimous choice for what would be his 2nd Cy Young award. And the voters will get it right. Halladay is having the best season of his career. He's striking out more hitters than he ever has, and walking as few as ever. He once again led the league in innings pitched, complete games, and shutouts. Halladay, 33 now, is clearly in the middle of his prime. Right now, there's no better pitcher in baseball. And I would have said that before tonight. Yet the NL Cy Young award decision is not as obvious as it seems. Adam Wainwright looks to be the Juan Marichal of this generation. A fantastic pitcher, but never quite the best in any particular year. Wainwright's 2010 season is great, even better than his Cy Young caliber season last year. But simply not better than Halladay. Ubaldo Jimenez had one of the best 1st halfs ever, but didn't sustain it. And Josh Johnson could have possibly beaten Halladay if he had stayed healthy. I went with Roy Oswalt in the 5th spot. Amazingly, I could have just as easily gone with Tim Lincecum. Don't ask why I chose Oswalt. I just did.

AL Cy Young Winner: Felix Hernandez
2nd: Cliff Lee
3rd: Jered Weaver
4th: Justin Verlander
5th: Jon Lester

It's strange; King Felix is only 24 years old. He's the youngest "great" pitcher in baseball. Yet he already has that Al Pacino feel about him, that he's missed out on too many Cy Young's, and that it's time to give it to him already. Of course, this is just a feeling, because the only season he's ever been a legit contender was 2009. He had a great season last year, but Zack Greinke's was substantially better. Not the case this season. Felix should, and I think will win the award for 2010. His main competitors, CC Sabathia and David Price, are great pitchers, but objectively speaking, they don't even belong in the top 5. The only true competition he has is Cliff Lee, and it is serious competition. Lee had a magnificent season, posting the 2nd highest K/BB ratio EVER. When I made this list, I set out knowing I'd pick Felix, then realized just how great Lee had been, and tried in my mind to find a way to justify Lee not winning it. It all comes down to this: Felix made 6 more starts than Lee; who would you win more games with: Felix in 34 starts, or Lee in 28? I gotta go with King Felix. Jered Weaver comes in 3rd; he just keeps getting better, and I don't think Anaheim Stadium has much to do with it. I was surprised by what a fine season Justin Verlander has had. I haven't thought much at all about him since the 2006 World Series. Someone recently called him the "worst great pitcher in baseball". I finish the list out with Jon Lester. He had a better season than Sabathia and Price, period.

NL MVP Winner: Joey Votto
2nd: Albert Pujols
3rd: Ryan Zimmerman
4th: Troy Tulowitzki
5th: Andres Torres

This is one is close, but pretty easy. Votto was slightly better than Pujols, quite an achievement for any player. Pujols is still the best player in baseball. Ryan Zimmerman is emerging as probably the best 3rd baseman in the majors, Evan Longoria being the only competition. He is a very good hitter, and a flawless fielder. If Tulowitzki keeps up what he has been doing, he could replace Hanley Ramirez as the best shortstop in baseball. And finally, you must notice that name in the 5th spot. Andres Torres. No, this is not a homer pick. Torres' numbers make him a legit name on an MVP ballot. He was more important than anyone this year for the Giants success. We look forward to seeing him and Giants play tomorrow against the Braves.

AL MVP Winner: Josh Hamilton
2nd: Robinson Cano
3rd: Miguel Cabrera
4th: Evan Longoria
5th: Jose Bautista

Hamilton's case for MVP is very similar to Joe Mauer's in 2009. They both missed an entire month of the season, yet still were the most productive players in the league. The other names on the list could have easily won an MVP in other years. While I believe Bautista's season is something of a fluke, there's no denying the actual production. It speaks for itself. Evan Longoria is the Ryan Zimmerman of the AL. Terrific defense at 3rd, very good offense. Miguel Cabrera could be the best hitter of this generation to never quite be the best hitter. You know what I mean? I know what I mean.

NL Rookie of the Year Winner: Buster Posey
2nd: Jason Heyward
3rd: Jaime Garcia
4th: Mike Stanton
5th Gaby Sanchez

Yes. Posey over Heyward. It had to happen. I'm a Giants fan. I can't help but forgive Posey the 2 month difference. Heyward has a full 1 win advantage over Posey in WAR. I don't care. After all, Cliff Lee has a .7 advantage over Hernandez in pitcher WAR, and no one has a problem voting for Hernandez. As Joe Posnanski said recently, WAR is a conversation starter, not closer.

The NLDS Roster

2010-10-05T15:59:00.000-07:00

Update: Rowand will be on the roster. It's looking like Zito will not. I think that's a mistake.

Every other Giants blog has done or will do a postseason roster post, but it's pretty much an obligation and we seem to have some different opinions than everybody else anyway. As you probably know, postseason rosters are set at 25 players, so the Giants have a few tough decisions to make regarding who they want to keep and who they want to leave off the postseason roster. I'm going to break down how I think the roster should be formed, starting with the pitchers.

Pitchers

Bochy has stated that he's likely to carry an 11 man staff, and there are a few guys who are locks to be on the roster. Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Bumgarner are all guarantees. The first three are pretty obvious choices and Bumgarner has pitched too well to be left off the roster. Bochy said today that if a 4th starter is used, it will be Bumgarner.

That leaves 7 guys for the bullpen. The combination of Casilla, Lopez, Ramirez, Romo, and Wilson in the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th innings worked extremely well late in the year, so they are all locks. That means there are 2 spots available for 5 guys: Barry Zito, Jeremy Affeldt, Dan Runzler, Chris Ray and Guillermo Mota. I would say Ray and Runzler do not make the cut, as Ray is pretty mediocre and Runzler can struggle with control. Jeremy Affeldt probably makes it because the Giants could use another lefty.

The last roster spot is where we seem to disagree with most people. Between Guillermo Mota and Barry Zito, I'm going with Zito. Ever since his terrible start in the final series against the Padres, the Leave Barry Zito Off the Postseason Roster Movement has gained a ton of momentum and I don't get it. I've heard he takes too long to warm up or he doesn't have bullpen experience or the Giants don't need another lefty or he just isn't good enough. Let me start by saying that pitchers are pitchers. Guys are usually put in the bullpen because they don't have enough pitches or control to be in the starting rotation. You don't often hear that a starting pitcher doesn't have what it takes to be a reliever. If he really needs a ton of time to warm up, so what? If he needs to long toss before games, let him long toss. Zito is not supposed to be a lefty specialist out of the pen. His value comes from being able to give the team innings when they need them. The rotation has been spectacular, but disaster starts happen. Having Zito come in to pitch a few innings at a time when needed would keep the bullpen fresh and be extremely valuable. I know Giants fans have a short-term memory and when they needed a good Barry Zito start at a crucial time, he failed. And when it was needed the most, Guillermo Mota gave the Giants 2-3 great innings out of the bullpen. But I can't be convinced that Zito isn't one of the best 11 pitchers on the roster and that the Giants don't need a long man. His numbers this year(4.15 ERA, 1.344 WHIP) aren't even terrible. Barry Zito should be on the NLDS roster.

Hitters

With 11 pitchers, the Giants will carry 14 position players. Certain guys like Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Posey, Burrell, Ross, Uribe, and Sandoval will absolutely be on the roster. I figure Schierholtz, Fontenot, and Whiteside are pretty sure bets for the bench because of their defensive value.

That means Guillen, Rowand, Renteria, and Ishikawa will fight for the last 3 spots. Just yesterday, Andrew Baggarly proposed leaving Jose Guillen off the roster entirely, which seemed ridiculous to me at the time, but isn't all that crazy. Guillen has been struggling immensely for a couple of weeks now and it's time for Cody Ross to be in the starting lineup. What it comes down to for me is Guillen vs. Rowand. Rowand does provide some defensive value, but very little offensive value. Guillen provides negative defensive value and while he hasn't been providing any offensive value lately, when he's right, he's a much more dangerous threat on offense than Rowand. Despite his recent struggles, I have to go with Guillen. Rowand's defensive value is a big deal but in a pinch-hit situation, I'll take Guillen. However, I might have a hard time arguing with you if you pick Rowand.

Renteria will probably make the cut just because he's the only true shortstop on the team. That means the final spot goes to Rowand or Ishikawa. To me, this is basically a draw. Like I said, Rowand does provide some defensive value in the outfield and Ishikawa would even out the bench with 3 RH and 3 LH, while also providing defensive value at 1st base. My gut tells me Ishikawa, but I'm not really sure why. A good case could be made for either player.

Final Roster:

Starting Lineup

Torres

Sanchez

Huff

Posey

Burrell

Uribe

Sandoval

Ross

Bench

Guillen

Schierholtz

Fontenot

Whiteside

Renteria

Ishikawa

Starting Rotation

Lincecum

Cain

Sanchez

Bumgarner

Bullpen

Zito

Affeldt

Casilla

Lopez

Ramirez

Romo

Wilson

SF 3, SD 0: NL West Champs

2010-10-03T18:16:00.000-07:00

It is done. The Giants, in the 162nd game of the year, have won the National League West division and are on their way to the playoffs. Seven years of misery and torture are finally over!

In many ways, I feel like this is a hard recap to write because I'm so uncontrollably excited, I don't really know what to say. We all figured that going into this weekend, needing just 1 game to go the playoffs, there was no way it wouldn't happen. But on Friday in game 1 of the series, we saw our best pitcher this year struggle while our offense could only score when it was too late. On Saturday, the much maligned Barry Zito was terrible, not even lasting 4 innings in his most important start of the year. But on Sunday, Jonathan Sanchez got it done and he was magnificent. Yes, this game was a classic Giants game: great pitching and just enough offense. It's fitting that the Giants would make us go through the torture til the very end.

Jonathan Sanchez's great start was huge and he more than likely pitched himself into the playoff rotation today. We don't know if the Giants are going to go with a 3 or 4 man rotation in the first round, but I don't think it matters. Up until yesterday's game, I thought the 3-man rotation would be Lincecum-Cain-Zito and the 4th starter would be a toss up between Sanchez and Bumgarner. But after seeing Sanchez come in and completely shut down the Padres' momentum today, he is the Giants' 3rd starter. Today he pitched 5 innings, allowing 3 H, 5 BB and striking out 5. Most importantly, he didn't allow a run. And we can't talk about the pitching without talking about the bullpen. That combination of Casilla, Ramirez, Lopez, Romo, and Wilson is pretty damn solid. It's going to be a huge weapon in the postseason.

Sanchez helped his own cause in the 3rd with a stand-up triple off of Mat Latos. Two batters later, Freddy Sanchez hit a groundball up the middle, scoring Sanchez. Immediately afterwards, Aubrey Huff drove a ball into the left-center gap, scoring the other Sanchez. It was a pretty big deal that the Giants finally scored first because it relieved some of the pressure. Figures that it took our pitcher to finally get something going. Buster Posey added an insurance run on a solo homer in the 8th, and everything else was taken care of.

Like I said, I don't feel like I can completely capture the greatness of the game. So I suggest that you go watch the game again, look at the celebration pictures, and watch Brian Wilson strike out Will Venable to end the game. Watching the swing and miss and seeing the whole team hop out of the dugout while Buster Posey runs to the mound to congratulate Brian Wilson should give you chills. It's amazing and hopefully it only gets better.

There are still plenty of questions that remain. Who is the 4th starter? What is the 25-man playoff roster going to look like? I'm sure we'll have a couple posts in the next few days addressing those issues. Just enjoy this feeling for the next 3 days. Game 1 is on TBS at 6:37 PM on Thursday. I already can't wait.

Oh, and Mat Latos is now on the Hate List. Haha.

SD 4, SF 2: So It Goes...To Sunday

2010-10-02T16:08:00.001-07:00

The Giants had their 2nd chance to clinch the NL West today, and they failed to do so. They must win tomorrow to avoid a 1 game playoff against the Padres in San Diego on Monday. I would have loved for the Giants to win today, but now that they have lost, it's just as well that they wait till tomorrow, when Kruk and Kuip will be calling the game. Because as bad as this game was, (and we will certainly get into how bad it was) the real loser today was FOX's MLB coverage. Just a few words on it, if you please.

FOX was already getting killed last night and this morning for forcing a majority of their national viewers to watch the meaningless Red Sox/Yankees game. I'm sure a vast majority of baseball fans would rather see either game today that had playoff implications. But that's only the beginning of how clueless they are over at FOX. I mean, the announcers are bad enough, but then again, most announcers for any company are terrible, so that can't really be avoided. Still, the David Eckstein love that was being thrust upon us today sounded so foolish and out of place, you'd have thought it was parody. So while we had to deal with a very subpar boradcasting team during this pivotal game, at least there were laughs to be had. What was not a laughing matter was what started happening in the middle innings. It's what made today's game possibly the worst viewing experience I've ever had watching a baseball game on tv. 3 times, between, say, the 5th and 8th inning, FOX inexplicably cut away from the Giants game to a split screen situation, where the Atlanta/Philadelphia game was prominently featured, along with Dick Stockton's voice, while the Giants/Padres were shoved into a little corner and told to be quiet for 5 minutes. I've never seen anything like it. One minute I'm watching my team play, and the next I'm getting up to stand right in front of the tv so I might be able to see what's going on. The worst was when the Giants were coming up to bat in the bottom of the 8th, trailing by 3, and FOX decided it was the perfect time to show the top of the 7th inning in Atlanta. Now, I understand that game in Atlanta is important, but the one between the Giants and Padres is arguably MORE important, and if FOX is going to force us local viewers of a team to watch their awful broadcast of our game, at least LET US FUCKING WATCH IT! Okay, that's all. Now to the awful game itself.

It was a terrible game for Barry Zito from the start. He walked in 2 runners in the 1st, and barely got out of the inning without more damage being done. He allowed 1 more run in the 3rd inning, and had given up 5 hits to that point. When he walked the pitcher to start the 4th inning, Bochy wasted no time taking him out. And it was the right choice. The runner he walked scored, but the bullpen shut the Padres down for the rest of the game. One of Zito's runs went unearned because of a terrible play by Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval, someone who clearly loves playing the game and is a great force for positivity and energy in the clubhouse, seems to always try to do too much in pressure situations, and in this case he turned a great play into a terrible one, stopping a line drive from going into left field, but then rushing his throw to 2nd base. It was way off the bag, and a run scored.

Barry Zito did not help his situation with the San Francisco fans today. Of course, it isn't his fault that he is being paid so much money. But that DOES always factor into the feeling that surrounds him. And while he has been vastly overpaid these 4 years, he at least has been able to pitch, and pitch at an average to slightly below average level. But games like this hurt. When he has to leave in the 4th inning because he walked the pitcher, criticism becomes more than justified. Matt Cain pitched a bad game last night, but he also nearly no hit the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field last Sunday. Zito has yet to do something like that in his Giants career. Today, he faced a terrible offensive team, at home, and he failed completely. It could have cost him his place in the postseason rotation, if that is something that even exists next week. Zito, pitching only 3 innings today, will finish the season with 199 IP, falling short of 200 once again. He has yet to pitch 200 innings for the Giants, and it has nothing to do with injuries. Zito has been completely healthy. He just hasn't pitched well enough to stay in games long enough to get to that mark.

While Zito pitched badly, the bullpen was able to hold the Padres afterward, but it didn't matter, because the Giants offense was terrible until the very end of the game. Before Juan Uribe's solo HR in the 7th inning, their sole hit was an infield grounder that Mike Fontenot beat out. Tim Stauffer had their number. If we wanna be positive, there is the issue that San Diego could be facing a very tired bullpen. Both of these games could have been blowouts, and instead Bud Black had to use all his favorite relievers. Mike Adams the set up man has been used in 5 straight games now, Bell the closer in 4. And Bell looked tired in the 9th inning, when he managed to get Jose Guillen to ground into a double play (!!!!!) to end the game with the tying run on 1st base.

Obviously Black will use Bell and the others like Dusty used Robb Nen in 2002, working them to the end. And it would be the right decision. But it's very possible that this could hurt San Diego tomorrow or on Monday, god forbid there is a game on Monday. Anyway, I look forward to tomorrow's game wholeheartedly. I just don't see how this team gets swept at home on the final weekend of the season. It can't happen, right? And if it does, there's always Lincecum on Monday. And don't forget, if Atlanta loses tomorrow, the Giants and Padres are in no matter what. But we want the division. So fuck that. Let's win tomorrow!

SD 6, SF 4: Torture 'Til the End

2010-10-01T22:40:00.000-07:00

I hadn't been this excited for a Giants game since probably 2002, when of course the Giants were playing in the World Series and I was an 11 year old kid listening to the game on the radio on my CD player. Remember CD players? Of course the Giants also went to the playoffs in 2003, but it was definitely no 2002 World Series. Anyway, this game felt big and it was exciting. There's a joke in there somewhere. Every single pitch mattered, every single runner on base was crucial. But early on, it was looking like the game was not going to live up to my lofty expectations.

Throughout the month of September, getting great pitching from the Giants was pretty much a given, which is why Matt Cain's bad start tonight came as such a surprise. Cain has pitched in pressure situations before, so it wasn't the pressure getting to him. And I doubt Cain was thinking about the really fun birthday party he was going to have after the game. It was just one of those games and it came at a horrible time. In 4+ IP, Cain gave up 9 hits, 6 ER and 3 home runs, including Adrian Gonzalez' 3-run homer in the 3rd that really opened the game up. The Giants had shown the ability to come back this year, but coming back from being down 6-0 seemed like a tough task.

Right at the beginning of the game though, it seemed like Clayton Richard also didn't have his best stuff. His command wasn't great and the Giants were hitting the ball hard, they just had nothing to show for it. It was only a matter of time before they got a couple of breaks. Freddy Sanchez drove in the Giants' first run, bringing in Cody Ross in the 5th to cut the Padre lead down to 6-1. In the 6th, Aaron Rowand hit a pinch-hit 2-run homer. Boring. Happens all the time. Also in the 6th, with runners on 2nd and 3rd, Andres Torres hit a ball so weak that it scored a run. The Giants were now within 2 runs, down 6-4.

Guillermo Mota pitched perfect 7th and 8th innings to keep the Giants within 2 runs, and Heath Bell was in to pitch for the Padres in the 9th. The first hitter of the inning, Freddy Sanchez, walked. Aubrey Huff then lined a pitch to right field and Freddy Sanchez completely misread it. Normally, the ball by Huff probably would've hit off the wall, but Will Venable was playing the line, and caught the ball. Sanchez was already on his way to 3rd, and the Padres easily completed the double play. It was an awful, unnecessary risk taken by Sanchez at a terrible time. The Giants needed baserunners, and in one play all of their baserunners were out. Buster Posey grounded out to end the game.

This game was on it's way to being extremely depressing, but fortunately the Giants fought back. Coming into the series, it was extremely unlikely that the Padres were going to sweep the Giants at home, and it still is. Still, this game was painful because you have to figure that tonight was the Giants' best chance to win. Matt Cain has been our best starter this year and in the next 2 games the Giants are going with Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez, two guys who have struggled with consistency. And the worst part is if the Giants do manage to clinch tomorrow, the game is going to be called by awful FOX announcers who make awkward comments and just don't know what they're talking about. It won't be as exciting as it would be if Kruk and Kuip were calling it. Thinking optimistically, I do have some confidence in Zito. If the pressure affected the Giants in ANY way tonight, it won't affect Zito. He's pitched in more big games in his career than anyone on the staff and the Padres don't exactly have an intimidating offense. The Padres still have to win 3 more games in a row to go to the playoffs. The Giants just need 1.

FJM Friday: Helllloooo, Marchman...

2010-10-01T11:24:00.000-07:00

So sorry about skipping Fire Joe Morgan Friday last week. Anyway, here we are, on a day the Giants could clinch the division, and Tim Marchman of SI is here to tell us we shouldn't be excited. Go for it, Tim!

This year's NL pennant races are the kind that could one day inspire songs: dour songs, about futility and lack of meaning, sung by moping teenagers.

Huh?

In theory, this has not been an especially dull race. In practice, September has been a month of listing apathy.

I'd say that in PRACTICE, it has been a very exciting month, and that it is your THEORY that states otherwise. No?

Teams winning out on the basis of being less mediocre than others will never be any more compelling than a bicycle race run on flat tires.

Bicycle races with flat tires sounds GREAT. Much better than normal bicycle races. I think this statement bothers me more than anything else in the article, because it at least SEEMS to be suggesting that the great runs by the Phillies and the Giants in September are just those teams being "less mediocre" than their rivals. The Phillies finally got everyone healthy, and are clearly the best team in the league. And the Giants, well, the Giants pitching staff has had one of the most impressive runs of superb pitching in the history of baseball. That's not mediocrity. That's excellence.

...take BR's SRS stat, which adjusts run differential for strength of schedule and rates teams by how many runs per game better or worse they are than an average major league club. By this measure, the 95 win Phillies are as good as the 87 win Red Sox, the 88 win Reds are as good as the 77 win A's, and the 88 win Padres are as good as the 82 win Blue Jays.

I have a hard time thinking that the A's are as good as the Reds, or that the Red Sox are as good as the Phillies. But still, I get it: the AL is better than the NL. So? The amazing Yankee dynasty of the late 1990's won the division with 87 wins in 2000. Were they a mediocre team? There are countless other examples through the 100+ year history of AL/NL baseball which show teams much worse than the 2010 Reds going to the playoffs. And there have been just as many collapses that are far worse than the Padres this season. Your sepia-toned view of the teams of yesterday is inaccurate.

NL partisans will protest, but there's lot of reason (sic) to think that a team like the A's would do quite well if dropped into the Senior Circuit next year.

Please don't do that. The Padres are boring enough. The last thing I wanna watch is Wade LeBlanc pitching to Mark Ellis.

The 2nd point is that the irrelevance of the Dodgers, Cubs, and Mets, 3 teams with enormous natural advantages -- makes for a huge, sucking void in the standings.

Those teams might be irrelevant THIS year, but each of them has had very recent success. The Cubs were a 97 win team in 2008. The Dodgers played in the last 2 NLCS. And the Mets were one of the best teams in the NL from 2006-2008. Of course, the real point here is that there is no precedent for THESE teams making baseball exciting. The Dodgers, like the Giants, are one of the most storied franchises in baseball, but just like the Giants, they have had as many miserable seasons as great ones. And the Mets and Cubs? Posterboys of painful mediocrity for most of the 20th century. When they are not in the NL bracket, they are not missed.

...it takes villains to make heroes: How much more meaningful would a Reds division win be if it came over a bullying Cubs team, vaunting over the money minted along Clark Street?

I understand there might be a rivalry between the Reds and the Cubs (though certainly not at the level of the Cardinals and Cubs), but still, I don't think the Reds fans care one bit about sticking it to Chicago. I mean, the Reds are the oldest franchise in baseball history, and have had periods of ENORMOUS success. They don't need to prove anything to anybody. Certainly not the Cubs.

Broad equality among teams, with none standing out as especially good or especially bad, and a diminishing of the power of big city clubs are essentially the goals of the apostles of competitive balance. In the ideal game of the parity preachers, all teams would be average, with some just being slightly less average than others. Each year, there would be hope and faith for all, and each year a cluster of slightly above average teams would trip into October questing for a large trophy.

I don't know who these "apostles of competitive balance" are. I do know that many people, quite rightly, protest the fact that Boston and New York won 13/14 AL East titles from 1994 to 2007. People want every team to have the chance to be great. That's all. Of course they can't all win at the same time.

As baseball's races this year show us, though, a game actually built on this line is on par with roach fighting, without the illicit kick -- one has interest in the spectacle, but unless money is involved, less in the outcome. A great race needs great teams; it needs the swagger of wealth; mostly, it needs the prospect of a team playing spectacularly well and still losing out on what it wants.

I don't see the races this year as being akin to a roach fight, although I've never seen a roach fight. In fact, it is insulting to hear you say that. Did you watch the series the Giants just played in Colorado? It was magnificent. It was great baseball. So sorry the fucking Mets weren't playing.

SF 4, ARI 1: Giants One Win Away From Playoffs

2010-09-30T17:25:00.001-07:00

Madison Bumgarner was able to get through 5 innings allowing just 1 run, but every inning was stressful, which meant an early exit for him. Yet he won his first home game of the year, thanks to a strong showing by the bullpen. Santiago Casilla pitched 2 perfect innings, followed by perfect innings by Romo and Bodie Broadus. Brian Wilson got the day off, although if the game was closer he'd likely have come in for the 9th.

But it wasn't closer, because the Giants kept hitting home runs today. Pablo Sandoval started it off with a splash hit. I won't say that he's "back". We've said that enough. Then Andres Torres made the score 2-1 in the 5th inning. He is back. And Buster Posey, who has been hitting the ball hard, but seen his average drop about 15 points in the last week, hit a typical deep left center Posey HR with Aubrey Huff on base. The man has a beautiful swing.

The Giants magic number is 2 now, meaning they can clinch a playoff spot with just one victory this weekend. 2 victories, or a Padres loss tonight along with 1 victory against them on the weekend, and the Giants would win the division.

SF 3, ARI 1: Closer

2010-09-29T22:11:00.000-07:00

When Stephen Drew led off against the Giants by smacking a hanging curve ball into right field, nobody panicked, but it certainly felt a little weird. Lincecum has been in Cy Young form all month, but we've seen left handed D-Backs hit HRs against him a lot. He had trouble in the early innings, and the game was 1-0 into the 4th inning. There was plenty of time left, but it may have started to feel like one of those games. My mom, the sudden Giants fan after 50+ years of complete disinterest in all sports, thought the game was completely lost. Give her a break, she's only been watching a couple days. So even thought my dad and I were relaxed and knew there were plenty of outs left, we both may have had that lingering feeling of a 1-0 loss. And then Pat Burrell happened.

In the 4th inning, Aubrey Huff singled up the middle, and Buster Posey worked a walk. Burrell came up and promptly launched a pitch into the left field bleachers to make the score 3-1. It was just another in a long list of HUGE home runs Burrell has hit for the Giants. And it was vital that he hit it, because after the HR, the Giants hit just like they did before it. In all fairness, tonight WAS one of those games, except for the Burrell magic.

But that was all the Giants needed, because Tim Lincecum was able to get past his early struggles, and finish 7 strong innings. His final line reads: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 11 K. Javier Lopez worked the 8th, and Brian Wilson finished a somewhat stressful 9th to get finish the game. The Giants remain 2 games up with 4 to play, magic number at 3. This pretty much means all they have to do is win 2 of the next 4 games. Do it.

Tim Lincecum struck out 11 tonight, raising his league leading strikeout total to 231. He is guaranteed to keep that lead, which will give him his 3rd straight strikeout title. This is something that has only been done twice in the NL since WWII, by Warren Spahn and Randy Johnson. That is amazing to think about. While leading the league in strikeouts is really just one aspect of pitching, it's still fascinating to look at the list of great NL pitchers that failed to do what Lincecum has done. Koufax, Drysdale, Gibson, Marichal, Seaver, Carlton, Ryan, Richard, Gooden, Schilling. 7 Hall of Famers there, and Schilling will be one soon. And J.R. Richard and Doc Gooden were both very dominant in their short careers. And none of these pitchers did what Tim Lincecum has done.

SF 4, ARI 2: Isn't This Fun?

2010-09-28T22:23:00.000-07:00

Tonight's game didn't look so hot at first. Jonathan Sanchez started the game by walking the first batter on 4 pitchers and walked 4 Diamondbacks in the first 2 innings. His control was obviously terrible, but worst of all, he was missing high in the zone. Giants fans everywhere were calling for his head, but yours truly believed in Dirty the whole time and in the end, he made me look good. In 6 innings, he allowed just 2 runs. It may not have been pretty but all that matters is that he minimized the damage. People remain remarkably impatient with a guy who has a 3.15 ERA and tonight became the 4th Giants lefty to have 200 K's in a season. Sounds pretty okay to me for a 4th starter.

Andres Torres got the scoring started with a leadoff triple in the 3rd, scoring on a Mike Fontenot RBI single. The big hit that really seemed to turn around the game was Juan Uribe's home run an inning later that tied the game 2-2. It was a bomb hit into the left field stands that really got the crowd going. In the 6th, pinch-hitter Nate Schierholtz brought home Pablo Sandoval on an RBI single, giving the Giants the lead. An insurance run was added in the 7th on a Pat Burrell RBI single. Insurance runs are always nice and fluffy.

The Padres lost tonight and the Giants now lead the division by 2 games. As I mentioned before, the crowd was really into this game. Everybody knew the implications and what was at stake. It felt like the playoffs and it was great. For a few years now, late September games haven't really mattered for the Giants and I'm glad that's over. This is really, really fun.

SF 4, COL 2: Cained

2010-09-26T15:22:00.001-07:00

Did you know that Matt Cain is my favorite player on the Giants? That's right. I decided in 2006, his first full season. When I am an old man, still a Giants fan of course, and someone asks me, "Who was your favorite Giants player? Who did you love the most?", the answer will be easy. It was Matt Cain. Matt Cain, the one with great stuff, no doubt, but never the greatest stuff on the team. Matt Cain, who got his share of attention, but never the most. Matt Cain, the one with the most heart, the most grit on the team. Yes, I, the David Eckstein hating, stat-quoting baseball fan, I am talking about heart and grit. Because while the "intangibles" can't truly measure who the best are, they can measure what we love, what we admire. And watching Cain pitch for 5 seasons now, we have seen those intangibles show up again and again, whether its accepting a losing record with stoicism and grace, getting out of jam after jam, or pitching shut down innings like no one else. And then, in the biggest game of the year, of his career, hell, the biggest Giants game since Finley's grand slam in 2004, he almost throws a no hitter, and goes 9 innings to secure the win. Amazing.

The Rockies that were smoking the ball last night looked completely helpless at the plate today, as Cain was throwing strikes with his fastball AND curve. CarGo and Tulo could do nothing against him. After losing the no hitter, on a questionable base hit that Juan Uribe double clutched on, Cain gave up a 2 run homer to Melvin Mora. But he didn't lose his composure one bit, and got out of the inning, then, with 100 pitches, went out to finish the 9th. Props to Bochy for having complete confidence in him. He even ended the game with a "Wainwright to Beltran hook" (all curveballs that strike out the last hitter of the game, looking, remind me of Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS). Cain's final line was 9 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, with a game score of 80. It was his 4th complete game of the season. He had 4 last year as well. Not quite Bob Gibson, but impressive for a 25 year old pitcher these days.

Cain has flirted with no hitters many times before, and I believe, one of these days he will get one. While he isn't quite one of the upper elite pitchers, yet, he is definitely one of the hardest to hit in baseball. His lifetime 7.59 hits per 9 innings is 5th among active pitchers, and 2nd only to Johan Santana among active starters. Yeah, he's that hard to hit. Unfortunately, his no hitter today ended rather strangely. Jay Payton his a groundball up the middle, and Juan Uribe double clutched before throwing to first. Payton was safe. It's very possible that Payton would have been safe even if Uribe hadn't double clutched, but, in my opinion, a double clutch like that constitutes an error on the part of the fielder. Oh well. If you want to care about no hitters, you have to accept the idea of official scorers.

The Giants scored 4 runs today, and it could have been a lot more, because Jorge De La Rosa was not good. He kept missing on the outside corner, and seemed to be upset about it. Too bad for him that Tom Glavine is the only pitcher who'll ever get that call. Freddy Sanchez, much maligned on this blog this summer, hit a 2 run HR in the first inning to give the Giants a quick lead. Well done, Singles Hitter. And Cody Ross just might be starting to heat up.

The Giants off day tomorrow should do them and the fans some good. Arizona is coming to town, and though they are a last place team, remember: they swept the red hot Rockies this past week. I can't think of anything worse than Adam LaRoche hurting us in the last week of the season.

COL 10, SF 9: That Was Not Good, Folks

2010-09-25T21:09:00.000-07:00

Okay, maybe this game wasn't as bad as that infamous Ryan Spilborghs grand slam in the 14th inning game, but this one was all sorts of messy. Normally, I might write some sad excuse for a recap, but this game deserves some in-depth analysis.

Right away, the Giants got on the board with an opposite field home run from Freddy Sanchez to give them a 1-0 run in the 1st. It was an encouraging start especially because the Rockies starter, Jason Hammel, wasn't looking too sharp. Unfortunately, Barry Zito didn't have his best game either. In the bottom of the 1st, Zito walked 2 batters and gave up 2 hits, resulting in 2 runs. The Giants got solo shots from Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff in the 3rd, giving them the lead, but Zito couldn't protect it.

The 5th inning was a disaster and that's really where the game changed. The Giants now had a 4-2 lead, but Barry Zito gave up a pair of triples to start the inning. With a 4-3 lead and a runner on, Bruce Bochy pulled Zito mid-at bat to bring in Chris Ray from the bullpen. Some didn't like the move to take out Zito so early, but I had no problem with it. He was wild and could never get on a roll. I did take issue with the decision to bring in Chris Ray, though. All year, Ray has been the pitcher that Bochy goes to when the Giants are trailing by a run or two, not with a 1 run lead on the road. It seemed like an odd choice, especially with guys like Casilla, Lopez, Ramirez, Romo, and even Mota and Affeldt available. Anyway, Ray allowed a 2-run homer to the first batter he faced, Troy Tulowitzki, and the Rockies had a 5-4 lead. The inning wasn't over as Ray gave up another deep flyball, Cody Ross slipped, and the Rockies had another triple. At the end of all that mess, the Rockies had scored 4 runs and had a 6-4 lead. There were defensive issues, bad strike zone calls, and questionable managerial decisions. It was the definition of a disaster inning.

And then the Rockies had their own version of a disaster inning. After losing the lead in such a disgusting way, the Giants didn't seem affected by it. Juan Uribe and Mike Fontenot lead off the inning with singles. Pinch-hitter Travis Ishikawa then blooped a single to score a run. The next batter, Cody Ross, hit what seemed like a flyout to left field, but it turned out to be a home run. Freddy Sanchez then doubled and advanced to 3rd on flyout, eventually scoring on a wild pitch. Five runs and a 9-6 lead. Life was good again.

But then there was more weirdness. I'm sorry for the back and forth, but this is how it felt. The Rockies scored in the bottom of the 6th to make the score 9-7. Fast forward to the 8th inning when the Rockies had two runners on with 2 outs and Brian Wilson was brought in to try for a 4-out save. The batter was Troy Tulowitzki, who hit that 2-run homer earlier to give the Rockies the lead. This time, Tulowitzki lifted a high flyball to right field that hit off the wall. The Giants were lucky that it wasn't hit out, but in any case, the Rockies tied the game and gave Wilson his 5th blown save in 50 opportunities. No one scored in the 9th, so it was on to extras.

Extra innings were no different. Tulowitzki screwed the Giants again. One out, a runner on 1st, and Tulowitzki hits a ball to the left-center gap. It took extra long for Burrell to get to the ball because he was playing the line. He had no chance, and the Rockies won the game.

Besides the constant lead changes, this game was weird on so many levels. After a pitcher's duel the night before, this was a typical Coors Field game. The Giants' streak of 18 games allowing 3 runs or fewer is over. The strike zone was kind of ridiculous and inconsistent all night. It could be argued that in the 5th inning and 10th inning, bad balls and strikes calls affected the game, but I won't make excuses. Andres Torres had to leave the game early with slight discomfort. He hit a home run and it doesn't seem too serious, but you have to wonder if he was rushed back too soon. That's a huge deal. The Braves, Padres, and Rockies all won today, and the Giants are no longer in first place in the West. But I find myself not too upset about the game and I don't really know why. Maybe it's because it was unlikely that the Giants were going to sweep on the road at Coors Field, and out of all the games, this one was the one they were most likely to lose. Of course, that means they need to win tomorrow, but I might have more confidence in Matt Cain than any other starter on the staff.

It was a loss, but this being the most important series of the year so far, it's really lived up to expectations. We've known that this race would probably come down to the wire and this game felt like playoff baseball. It doesn't even matter that much that we're half a game back in the standings because it goes back and forth almost everyday. This is exciting, intense baseball.

Sorry for the very long recap. There was so much to cover and I wouldn't be surprised if there mor then a few errrs in their.

SF 2, COL 1: Pitcher's Duel at Coors. Huh?

2010-09-24T19:46:00.000-07:00

Both pitchers tonight, Tim Lincecum and Jhoulys Chacin, were great. Fortunately for us, Chacin made one mistake in location and Pat Burrell made him pay. With a runner on 1st, Chacin hung a fastball and Burrell smashed it for a no doubt homer to give the Giants a 2-1 lead. And it was glorious.

The mistake pitch came after the Rockies were able to get a run off of Tim Lincecum in the 6th inning. Lincecum actually had a perfect game going through 5 innings until he gave up a leadoff double to Seth Smith. On a groundout, Smith moved to 3rd and scored on a single that Aubrey Huff couldn't quite get to. At the time, 1 run from the Rockies seemed like a death sentence, as the Giants were showing no ability to score. It only made Burrell's homer that much sweeter.

The Giants did win, but let's point out that the same lineup that scored 13 runs last night could only manage 2 tonight. So many people are so quick to criticize Bochy's lineups these days, but I don't see what he's doing wrong. Everyone was so happy that he used the same lineup again tonight, but that lineup mostly failed to score. What is he supposed to do? What batters would people rather see? Maybe you wanted him to bench Pablo Sandoval in favor of Renteria or Fontenot? He did that, but really, how much of a difference is that going to make? The fact is, Bochy is playing the same guys he's been playing all year. Huff, Posey, Burrell, Guillen, Uribe, and Sanchez are in there every day. For whatever reason, they aren't consistently scoring runs right now. That's not on Bochy. With Torres out, the Giants are not going to have a good leadoff hitter. You can't expect Bochy to come up with a magical replacement for him. It sucks, but sometimes star players get injured and teams have to overcome it. There's nothing Bruce Bochy can do besides relying on this historic run by his pitching staff. Rant over.

Huge Win! Tim Lincecum was huge when he needed to be, and so was Pat Burrell. Let's all root for the Reds tonight!

SF 13, CHI 0: URIBED

2010-09-23T20:32:00.001-07:00

The big story from today's game is the offensive explosion that began in the 2nd inning, but before we get to that, let's say a little something about 21 year old Madison Bumgarner. On a night when every ball hit in the air seemed to carry, Bumgarner allowed 0 runs in 7 innings, with 7 hits. Most importantly, he only walked 1 while striking out the Cubs 9 times. For such a young rookie, his control is impressive, with a K/BB ratio over 3.00 after tonight. The Giants' pitching staff extended its streak of games with 3 or fewer runs allowed to 17. The record is 20. To tie that, they'll have to hold Colorado to 3 or fewer every game this weekend in Denver. If that happened, it would probably mean winning at least 2/3. Get it done.

These huge blowout wins really are the hardest to write recaps for. It's hard not to just list all the great things everyone in the lineup did. Well, Juan Uribe was the big hero, homering twice in the same inning. Buster Posey pulled a home run, which never happens. He could also be pulling ahead in the NL Rookie of the Year race. Singles Hitter Freddy Sanchez went 4-5, and one of them was a double!!! Mike Fontenot, the VROOM VROOM at the top of the lineup, got 2 hits, and Cody Ross had his 1st good offensive day with the Giants, homering and collecting 2 other hits.

It was a good day. The Giants had a team meeting before the game to discuss hitting, and came out and scored 13 runs on 19 hits. And now they go to Colorado. Only 9 games left, 6 against teams neck and neck with the Giants for division lead and Wild Card. This, you could say, is truly the beginning of the end. Or just the very beginning...

CHC 2, SF 0: BLAHHHHHHHHHHHH

2010-09-22T19:31:00.000-07:00

Jonathan Sanchez good, not great. Offense sucked majorly. Read the post below this. It's nice. BOOM. Done.

The Great ROY Debate

2010-09-22T12:57:00.001-07:00

There's been a lot of talk on twitter today about the NL Rookie of the Year award, Posey v. Heyward. Of course, all Giants fans, including myself, would like for Posey to win that award, just as we would like any player on the Giants to win an award they seem eligible for. But in the fervor over Posey's recent heroics, we at 8thInningWeirdness believe Giants fans may be going too far in handing the trophy to Gerald Demp already. A little perspective might be necessary.

Jason Heyward lived up to all the Spring Training hype when he homered in his 1st at bat of the season. He has been red hot of late, and a few weeks ago looked like the odds-on favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award for the NL. However, recently our very own Buster Posey has been hitting monster home runs and throwing runners out with precision. It's suddenly become a much closer race, and in my view it is an absolute tie right now.

When it comes to discussions about regular season MLB awards, we have to always make the distinction of who WILL win and who SHOULD win. We know that the BBWA still has certain prejudices, which will be tested mostly in this year's American League Cy Young voting. While it is nice to be informed about who will probably win a given award, the much more interesting and substantive debate is about who, given the evidence presented, should win the award. Here are the points in favor of either Heyward or Posey:

Heyward:

Aside from a DL stint, he has played the entire season. Posey missed the first 2 months.
His offensive rate numbers are just as good as Posey's. Their wOBA's stand at .385 and .382 respectively.
His WAR (fangraphs) is 4.6, while Posey is at 3.9. WAR makes up for the fact that Posey plays a tougher position, yet Heyward is still ahead.
Heyward is going straight to Cooperstown. Okay, that isn't a very valid reason to vote for him for ROY this year, but it should at least be recognized. Heyward is one of a very select group of 20 year old rookies that had the kind of plate discipline he is showing. It's marvelous. Magnificent. Unreal. Guys this young just don't do this. Unless they are THAT great. His middle-of-career slashline has been predicted as .300/.420/.600. The numbers have shown that this year he has lived up to all the hype that surrounded him. Does his career projection matter when it comes to deserving the ROY award? No, not at all. But it could still be a factor in a voter's mind. And just the fact that he is a 20 year old rookie with a .400 OBP could be enough.

Posey:

Posey missed 2 months, but that isn't his fault. His rate numbers might not be quite as good if he had played a full season, but it's possible his counting numbers would surpass Heyward. Possible.
Posey is behind in WAR, but a lot of that has to do with the playing time. In fact, it's amazing he is so close in WAR with 2 fewer months played.
The reason he is close to Heyward with WAR is because he plays catcher. Catcher is the toughest position to play, much harder than corner outfield.
WAR doesn't account for the handling of the pitching staff. Posey is the catcher for what now ranks as the best pitching staff in the league.

Looking at the arguments for both, I think it all comes down to one thing: how do you feel about Posey missing the first 2 months of the season? It was management's fault, not his, but still, shouldn't Heyward get credit for playing a full season? I don't know. If Posey had far surpassed Heyward in production, then yes, the playing time would be easy to overlook. But he hasn't. They are about the same. That's why at this point I think it's a tie, and whoever finishes stronger deserves the award.

There are, of course, some very BAD reasons to vote for either of them. A few were included above. Just because Jason Heyward might look like a future Hall of Famer, doesn't make him the Rookie of the Year. Buster Posey, like all catchers, deserves very LITTLE credit for the performance of the pitching. Either one might end up leading their team to the playoffs. We should all agree that is completely irrelevant for a regular season award. And then of course their is the strange, yet completely Brucean view from Bruce Jenkins in the Chronicle today, where he stated:

"If Posey doesn't win the NL ROY award, voters simply aren't paying attention. Jason Heyward is having a tremendous year in the Braves outfield...Posey is simply in another world."

As Giants fans, we need to realize something: Buster Posey is a terrific player. But compared to Jason Heyward, he is NOT in another world. It isn't surprising to see Jenkins going overboard like this, especially on Fire Joe Morgan Day over at Deadspin. I just hope that Giants fans can be a little more fair and honest. It's easy to watch a player everyday, and be in awe of his talent, and then assume that he must be the best (these kinds of judgments occur with the Gold Glove awards all the time). Perhaps Posey will be a more deserving ROY than Heyward on October 3rd. But it's very, very close.

20 minutes later...

I think I just realized: yeah, it would be great for Posey to win the ROY, but really, who cares? It's not that great of an award anyway. Bobby Crosby won it.

SF 1, CHC 0: Poseyed

2010-09-21T21:03:00.000-07:00

So, Carlos Zambrano showed why the Cubs overreacted by sending him to the bullpen earlier in the year and why it was silly to think that the Cubs would ever trade him for Aaron Rowand. Remember that rumor? Zambrano struck out 8 batters tonight and held the Giants to 0 runs, but he also walked 5 guys and threw 116 pitches in 6 innings. It was up to the Chicago bullpen to give up some runs to the Giants.

The bullpen also pitched pretty well for the Cubs, but they still got poseyed. Buster will do that to you. In the 8th inning, Posey hit a solo shot to center field that barely cleared the fence and finally put the Giants on the board. That was all they'd get and all they'd need. Ramon Ramirez, Sergio Romo, and Brian Wilson combined for 3 innings of perfect relief to close out the game.

Matt Cain was fantastic. What else is new? Cain struck out just 2 Cubs, but he only allowed 4 baserunners (2 H, 1 BB, 1 HBP) and 0 runs in 6 innings. He was pulled early after just 82 pitches because Bochy needed some offense yet again. I'm not sure that makes much sense because if the starters can't score what's a bench guy gonna do? Might as well keep your great starting pitcher in the game. Oh well, it didn't matter. Like I said, the bullpen was very good. Did you know that the Giants' pitching staff has allowed 3 runs or fewer in their last 15 games and it's just the 3rd time a team has done that in the live ball era? I'll end the recap with that really cool stat.

SF 9, MIL 2: Jose Guillen Is Relevant

2010-09-19T18:33:00.000-07:00

When the Giants acquired Cody Ross, I declared Jose Guillen redundant, irrelevant, and useless, and said that he should be relegated to a pinch hitting role. Guillen hasn't completely caught fire since then, but he's had some good games and big hits, none bigger than his 1st inning, 2 out grand slam against Milwaukee today. The Giants never looked back, scoring 5 more runs, including 2 on a Guillen single later in the game.

Guillen is a better option for the Giants not just because he's hitting lately, but because Cody Ross is failing to do so. In a very small 47 PAs, Ross' Giants slashline is .195/.277/.220/.496. Means nothing, really, because of small sample size, but still, may Andres Torres return as fast as possible. Ross' slashline may have looked a little better after today if a leadoff home run hadn't been brought back by Ryan Braun. Braun made an amazing play, and he let everyone know that he thought so too. What a hateable player he is.

Barry Zito did a good job of shutting the Brewers down after the Giants scored 4 runs in the 1st inning. He hasn't always been successful doing that, sometimes giving up a little momentum after the offense scores. Braun homered in the 6th to make the score 6-2, but Zito was able to finish the inning, and Bochy wisely got him out of their before any weirdness happened.

A big part of the Giants offense today was the patience they showed, in stark contrast to the past 2 games. They drew 7 walks as a team. Buster Posey had 3 himself, and Pat Burrell 2, both helping set up Jose Guillen's RBI situations. With the win today, the Giants moved back into 1st place in the West. The Padres just aren't the same team anymore that they were for 5 months, and Colorado gave up a 6-1 lead to the Dodgers, losing in the 10th inning. But I don't expect either team to completely go away. The Giants' postseason chances are gonna all come down to the final series against each of those teams. On Friday, the Giants travel to Denver for a weekend series. If they play well, it could mean a playoff spot. If not, it could be another "This is not good, folks" moment.

MIL 2, SF 1

2010-09-18T22:04:00.001-07:00

See yesterday's recap.

MIL 3, SF 0: Randy Wolf is NOT Clayton Kershaw

2010-09-17T22:47:00.000-07:00

On Tuesday, the Giants lost 1-0, getting shutout by future Dodger ace Clayton Kershaw. The offense did very little that night, something we are very familiar with, but I decided that it was unfair to blame them for not scoring. When Kershaw is on like that, he's very tough to hit. And the Giants went on to win the next two games of the series, taking over 1st place in the West.

Tonight the same excuse will not be given. The Giants arguably looked WORSE tonight than they did on Monday, and it was against a pitcher, Randy Wolf, who has shown all year that he might be nearing his end in terms of effectiveness. Anytime the Giants let an older, mediocre pitcher move that quickly through the game, I'm reminded of the game at Dodger Stadium in 2006, when Maddux and Schmidt battled, matching each other for 8 scoreless innings. The Giants made Maddux throw 68 pitches in those 8 innings. (By the way, I'm not calling Greg Maddux, greatest pitcher possibly ever (GPPE), mediocre.) And that's what happened tonight, as the the team that scored 10 runs last night managed only 3 singles off of Randy Wolf, the man who gives up 9 hits per 9 innings.

Not that we shouldn't have seen this coming. It would be foolish to think that the Giants could trot out the same lineup from last night and expect them to score 10 runs again. Reality is like gravity, pulling Giants fans back down to earth with a snap the moment they see a few baseballs fly out of the yard. I wonder what juggling Bochy will do now with the batting order.

But the offense wasn't the only thing to disappoint tonight. The San Francisco defense looked terrible, like a bunch of rookies were playing the infield. One bad decision and throw after another. The starter, Madison Bumgarner, did his best to limit the damage. He ended up allowing 9 hits in less than 6 innings, but we know he pitched better than that. That's why we look at BABIP.

FJM Friday: Worst Sportswriter - Bruce Jenkins in a Runaway

2010-09-17T13:28:00.001-07:00

The Bruce is back in town! Our favorite "writer" over here at 8thInningWeirdness titled this week's 3 Dot Lounge blog post "MVP: Tulo in a Runaway". This is by no means the worst piece Bruce Jenkins has ever written. But it's still pretty fuckin' stupid. Enjoy.

It's a good thing pennant races aren't decided on the shortstop position alone. If that were the case, Colorado would leave the Giants in the dust. While San Francisco can only think of how to improve the position next year, Troy Tulowitzki is making a strong case for MVP -- and for my money, it's an easy call.

Read that again. Bruce Jenkins just wrote the most worthless paragraph in the history of sports journalism. We get what you want to say, Bruce: The Rockies have a better shortstop than the Giants. Why the hell did you have to dream up an absurd scenario where that one player is what decides pennant races? But enough about your completely inane ways of proving a point. It's that last sentence that bothers me the most. Tulowitzki isn't even in the top 3 for MVP. Joey Votto will probably win it, you could say Ryan Zimmerman is just as worthy, and Albert Pujols is still the best player in baseball.

Nothing against Albert Pujols or Joey Votto...but they don't have Tulo's entire package: great hitter, clutch hitter, world-class defense in the middle infield, and a perfect example of a team's ideal: Your best player is also the one who wants it most.

I understand what you mean: Pujols can't play shortstop, so he doesn't have Tulo's entire "package". Technically, it's an okay statement to make. But still, I find it very troubling when we can speak of a player having more of a "baseball package" than Albert Pujols. Tulowitzki is one of the best shortstops in baseball. He's young. He's good on defense. He hits for average and power. He's great.

But Albert Pujols? Albert Pujols will most likely retire as the greatest right handed hitter in baseball history. Better than Aaron, Mays, A-Rod, Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez, DiMaggio, Rogers Hornsby, etc. A better hitter than all of them. He could go down as one of the top 5 baseball players of all time. Most likely top 10 at least. He's that good. Please don't tell me that Troy Tulowitzki has something that Pujols doesn't, even if you might be correct literally.

Also, that last part is enraging. What a surprise: a white middle infielder is the one on the team who clearly wants "it" most.

Tulowitzki has missed a number of games due to injury this year, and that's the only reason Colorado isn't leading the division.

And the reason why he shouldn't be the MVP. He hasn't played as much as Votto, Pujols, or Zimmerman, and his performance, unlike Joe Mauer's 5 month MVP season in 2009, has not been so head and shoulders above everyone else to warrant ignoring that fact. He's only got 461 plate appearances this season, in the middle of September. That's not enough. Not when Joey Votto is having the kind of season he's having. And just as we must take into account the park factor with Carlos Gonzalez, we must with Tulowitzki. He's a great hitter, but he benefits from Coors Field. Consider this: Tulo's regular OPS is .964. Zimmerman's is .894. But their OPS+ numbers are 140 and 141 respectively.

Earlier this season at AT&T Park, there was a game in which Tulowitzki made one of those mind-blowing plays from deep in the hole at shortstop, then homered deep into the left field bleachers on a chilly, windy night.

This Tulowitzki guy is starting to get some serious Jeter-treatment from sportswriters. At least he's good, I guess.

It was an evening that defined the best shortstop in baseball, and he's done it time and again this season.

I guess now we could argue that Tulowitzki is the best shortstop in baseball. But I don't think he's the runaway, the way A-Rod was 10 years ago. I might be foolish to say this, but I'd still take Hanley Ramirez and his horrible defense at short ahead of Tulo. 3 straight seasons with an OPS+ over 140 for Hanley. This is Tulo's first season at 140. He could end up being just as good, but I see Hanley as the more talented hitter. But I'd never expect Bruce Jenkins to write about Hanley Ramirez the way he just did about Tulo; Ramirez has certain traits that disqualify him from the title of "wanting it most".

SF 10, LA 2: Diiiiiiiiirrrrrrrrtttyyyyyyyyy

2010-09-16T21:43:00.000-07:00

Wow, that was pretty great.

Not only did Jonathan Sanchez give up just 4 H, 1 ER and strike out 12 Dodgers, he didn't walk a single batter. He was just beautiful. It's the kind of beauty that's impossible to stop thinking about. Just thinking about how beautiful he is makes me smile. When I think of him, nothing in the world can bother me. Thinking of him makes me feel like I'm in the middle of an open field dancing and playing with flowers and butterflies. You know what it is that Jonathan and I have? It's love. Congratulations Mr. Sanchez, you will be who I'm thinking about when I go to sleep tonight. What?

Now that I've expressed my love for a man over the worldwide web for billions of people to see, I'll talk about something else. Actually, no. Sanchez lived up to his nickname tonight, Dirty Sanchez. The nickname is so obvious and simple, but it's perfect. The Giants are in first place. He can be absolutely nasty and starts like tonight show how valuable he is. If you read this blog a lot, you probably know that I'm in favor of trading him for a bat. But he is too valuable to give up for anything. The Giants are in first place. A 27 year old left-handed pitcher with a 3.21 ERA and a 9.3 K/9 is only worth giving up for a legitimate middle of the order hitter. If you can't get that, you keep him. It's just a bonus that he happens to be frickin' beautiful!

The pitching wasn't the only bright spot tonight. The Giants found themselves down by a run after half an inning because of a double and a throwing error by Juan Uribe, but that didn't scare the offense. The Giants are in first place. In the bottom half of the 1st, Aubrey Huff tripled and Buster Posey promptly brought him in with an RBI double. Then in the 3rd, with 2 runners on Aubrey Huff blasted a 3-run shot over the right field wall. I bet you can't guess what awesome thing I'm going to say next, though. The Giants are in first place. The next batter, Buster Posey, also blasted a home run, this one into the left field bleachers to give the Giants a 5-1 lead. It was the Aubrey and Buster Show! Against the Dodgers. With the division lead on the line. Epic. The Giants are in first place. There was also a Jose Guillen homer and a couple more RBI hits and the Giants ended up with 10 runs. Against the Dodgers. With the division lead on the line. Epic.

Edgar Renteria went 4-for-5. Say hello to your new leadoff hitter!

The Giants are in first place.

SF 2, LA 1: Matt Cain Is Good

2010-09-16T00:26:00.000-07:00

Maybe the most important thing I learned tonight is that Dodger fans are even more idiotic than I thought. But I'm not going to go into that right now, it's a story for another time.

The game itself was also pretty important. For most of it, the offense was looking dormant against Giant killer, Chad Billingsley. It really wasn't a surprise because the lineup was terrible. Eugenio Velez, a career .696 OPS player, was hitting leadoff. Yeah, that bad. It's just not going to be the same without Andres. Anyway, despite the poor lineup, the Giants had plenty of chances. In total, they left 17 men on base and were 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position, with both hits coming after the 6th inning. Fortunately, two runs were all they would need. Mike Fontenot blooped a single to right field in the 7th to give the Giants a 1-0 lead and Aubrey Huff added an insurance run in the 8th by scoring on a fielder's choice.

They only needed 2 runs because Matt Cain was great. His final line of 7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, and 5 K's looked great, but he could've gone even longer. After 7 innings he had thrown just 91 pitches, but he was lifted in the 7th for a pinch-hitter because the Giants needed to score some runs. Sergio Romo pitched a perfect 8th and even though Brian Wilson allowed an Andre Ethier homer in the 9th, it didn't matter. The idiotic Dodgers fan behind me had nothing to say.

I like winning series. Let's do it tomorrow.

LA 1, SF 0: Giants One-Hit The Dodgers!

2010-09-14T21:49:00.001-07:00

And lose! I don't even know what to say about this game, because I'm having trouble assigning blame in a game where you'd think the blame is obvious. Barry Zito, though he failed to finish the 6th inning, pitched very well. The only run he gave up was unearned, coming on an error by Juan Uribe with the bases loaded and 2 outs. But can we really put the loss on Uribe for that 1 error? It must be the offense's fault. They lost their 2nd 1-0 game in 4 days. And as easy as it is to talk about the shortcomings of this offense, and to point out that it is foolish to think that going into next year with a similar lineup would make the Giants a playoff team, tonight I don't think is the night to blame the offense. Because Clayton Kershaw is one hell of a pitcher. This wasn't Wade LeBlanc pitching. This was Kershaw, and he's gonna be annoying us for years to come.

He has a GREAT curveball. When he spots it on the outside corner to a right handed hitter, there's nothing that can be done. And tonight that's what he was doing. Many times, Giants fans have watched their starters lock in and completely baffle a good lineup like the Phillies or Brewers. So what could be expected when Kershaw is pitching like that and the Giants lineup is hitting. They had no chance. Great pitching seems to always have the edge in the end. So it goes for the Giants.

Replacing Our Beloved Andres Torres

2010-09-13T14:20:00.000-07:00

As you know, Andres Torres is out for at least 2 weeks after having his appendix taken out. We talked about it a little bit in yesterday's recap, but Torres has been one of the most valuable Giants this year, having a 5.4 WAR, 2nd among all NL outfielders. Obviously, replacing him is going to be difficult not only because he's produced on offense, but also because he's been one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball this year. Let's look at the possible replacements for the next 2 weeks.

Cody Ross: Ross is probably the best option, especially against left-handed pitchers. He has a career .941 OPS against lefties and he's not a bad defender. He has a good amount of power, again especially against lefties, and he has experience playing center field. While he doesn't hit righties as well (.718 career OPS), he might be the best option against them too.

Aaron Rowand: Whenever Torres has needed a day off this year, Aaron Rowand has been the replacement and I'm not really sure why. Not only is he no longer a very good defender in center field, he has an OPS under .700 and often hits leadoff when he's in the lineup for some reason. Despite all of this, he's probably the second best option to replace Torres. He doesn't have Torres' range in center field, but he's not a terrible defender. He still has some power left, so I wouldn't be opposed to him getting a couple of starts, but he should be nowhere near the leadoff spot.

Darren Ford: Ford would probably be the best replacement for Torres defensively. His amazing speed gives him a lot of range playing in center, and he's always been regarded as a good defender, but he cannot hit at all. He couldn't even muster an OPS over .700 in AA, so he should not be getting regular at-bats in the major leagues. Many think his speed would be an asset in the leadoff spot, but if he never gets on base, what's the point?

Nate Schierholtz: Schierholtz would be an unknown in center field. He may have had some experience playing there in the minors but I don't think he's played there in the majors. He has good speed for a guy his size, but he probably would have average range in center. Additionally, I'm not sure he's a much better option than Ross. Schierholtz has actually hit lefties better than righties in his career, but Ross hits lefties much better.

Acquire another outfielder: This idea was first brought up by Andrew Baggarly and I'm not sure if I like it. The name he threw out was Scott Podsednik, and while he may be an adequate replacement, I'm not sure it'd be worth giving up a player for basically a 2 week rental. And Podsednik is pretty average.

So, I'm thinking Cody Ross is the best option to replace Andres Torres for the time being. But whatever happens, none of these guys should be replacing Torres in the leadoff spot. None of them really hit well enough or get on base enough for a leadoff hitter. Right now, while he's obviously not a perfect fit, Freddy Sanchez may be the best option to hit atop the order. Of course we all know that Aaron Rowand will be leading off and roaming center field for the next 2 weeks, so why did I even write this post? Andres, please get well soon.

SF 6, SD 1: Lincecum Lincecum Lincecum

2010-09-12T16:34:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, at the end of the recap for the Giants' 1-0 loss to San Diego, I wrote this:

We'll get them tomorrow. The Old Lincecum is going up against a terrible lineup. He has to shut them out. Mat Latos will finally have a non quality start. It's gotta happen that way.

You're welcome.

What a beautiful day for baseball. Football, not so much. Oh well. Wait till October/November (fingers crossed) to worry about football. Right now the Giants are all that matters, and they certainly delivered today. It all started in the 1st inning with Buster Posey's first pitch swinging against Mat Latos, hitting a 2 run HR into the right field seats. The Giants would get more, thanks to multiple hit games from Posey, Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, and Juan Uribe. But those 2 runs were all they ended up needing, because Tim Lincecum IS Tim Lincecum again.

Lincecum's pitch count ran a little high, and he had to get out of a couple jams, but that's to be expected in most games. The difference was he was able to handle those problems much easier, because his control was the best we've seen in months. He was around the knees all day. His final line of 7 innings, 1 ER, 7 hits, 1 BB, and 9 K's is very encouraging. That's 1 walk and 20 strikeouts in his last 2 appearances. He's turning it around at the perfect time. The whole pitching staff is, in fact. In August, the team ERA was 4.55. So far in September, it's 1.84.

I saved the bad stuff for the end. Andres Torres is going to be out at least 10 days, probably 2 weeks, maybe the rest of the regular season. Its a huge blow to the team, and one they'll just have to make up for with more hitting from everyone. Torres has been very cold of late, but he's still one of the 1st guys I'd pick to come up to bat with the game on the line. The part that might be harder to replace is his defense in center field, which has been superb. Having a guy with his range in an outfield that often features Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen on the corners is crucial, and no one on the bench really can match it. Aaron masquerades as a good center fielder because of the "reckless abandon" he demonstrates out there, but he is average at best, and anyway, we do not want his bat in the lineup. Cody Ross seems like a much better option. Can Nate Schierholtz play center field? I don't know.

SD 1, SF 0: 2nd Place? Yup.

2010-09-11T15:49:00.000-07:00

Madison Bumgarner looked great today. As Keith Law pointed out on Twitter, pitching in Petco Park against the Padres will have that effect. Bumgarner went 7 innings, gave up only 3 hits, 1 of which was a HR, struck out 4 and walked none. He only had 79 pitches when he was lifted for a pinch hitter in the 8th, and could have conceivable gone the full 9 innings.

Unfortunately the Giants themselves only managed 3 hits against the Padres the entire game. Yeah, it was one of THOSE games. Not much else to say.

I agreed with Bochy's decision to lift Bumgarner in the 8th. At that point, your offensive outs are extra precious, and you can't waste any on a pitcher batting. On the other hand, I didn't understand the decision to pinch hit Pablo Sandoval for Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez is a hot hitter, hotter than Sandoval. It seemed like Bochy was going for the more powerful bat in hopes the Giants could tie the game with a HR. I don't agree with that. Especially in Petco Park, you don't play for the HR. You try to string together hits. And Freddy Sanchez would have been a better option for that. Whatever. We'll get them tomorrow. The Old Lincecum is going up against a terrible lineup. He has to shut them out. Mat Latos will finally have a non quality start. It's gotta happen that way.

SF 1, SD 0: First Place? Yup.

2010-09-10T21:32:00.000-07:00

Hey, I don't care how it's done, as long as it's done. And tonight it was done. And when it was done I was happy. Done.

That was weird. Maybe it's not an unfamiliar type of game for Giants fans because that's how it goes against the Padres. With the exception of last night, usually we can't score against them or maybe we're able to squeeze out a run or two. And it figures that after Jonathan Sanchez lost a game in which he allowed just 1 hit earlier this year, the Giants would win a game where Sanchez walked 7 batters and threw as many balls as strikes. I guess it all evens out.

The player of the game has got to be Nate Schierholtz. With 1 out in the 7th inning, Aubrey Huff was on 3rd and Schierholtz had come in to pinch-run for Jose Guillen at 1st. Juan Uribe decided to hit what would've been a double play grounder to 2nd, but Nate slid aggressively into the bag, and the throw was late to first. Aubrey Huff scored to give the Giants a 1-0 lead, and that was all they'd need. Not always pretty, but I'll take it.

I don't like to complain when we, but something needs to be asked. Why the hell did Wilson swing the bat in the 9th?? He should've struck out and let Torres attempt to drive the runners in. I don't understand letting a pitcher, especially a reliever, bat in that situation when insurance runs are needed. We're lucky it didn't cost us. And why did Uribe feel the need to wrap is hand around the catcher's leg as he was crossing home?? That was a bizarre play.

WE ARE TIED FOR THE DIVISION LEAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ahem. I'm pretty sure a late night FJM Friday post is in the works. I don't want to make any promises, but I think it's happening. You'll want to read it because Scott Ostler wrote a pretty ridiculous thing for the Chronicle today.

FJM Friday: Bench Ostler

2010-09-10T18:48:00.000-07:00

I don't know much about Scott Ostler. I always get him and John Shea mixed up. And I rarely read the Chronicle anymore, unless it is ruthlessly/pathetically looking for articles to appear on Fire Joe Morgan Friday. I feel like I've heard him on KNBR before, but that might have been John Shea. Except it was probably Scott Ostler, because I remember the guy being kinda awkward and not very engaging, giving lots of short answers. John Shea looks like a nice guy, who would wanna talk. Scott Ostler looks like, um, someone that might be like that guy I heard on KNBR a couple years ago. Whatever. Scott Ostler wrote some really dumb things in today's Sporting Green, so here they are in bold, with my thoughts in regular text.

Bench Panda. The Giants are making a dash for the playoffs. They need runs. Time to bench Pablo Sandoval.

Uh oh. This can't be going anywhere intelligent.

Sandoval's batting average is 61 points lower than last season, 76 points lower than 2008. Hello. Something is wrong.

As long as you're going to use the sarcastic "hello?" as a device in your article, please include the recommended question mark, a punctuation tool that provides the tone necessary for accomplishing your intended sarcasm. Also, did you really just cite his 2008 batting average? When he had 154 plate appearances?

He cannot hit right-handed. Against lefty pitchers, he's at .233. With one home run. One.

Yes, Pablo Sandoval has struggled mightily this year against lefties. But splits, especially single year ones, can be very deceptive, and should be analyzed with caution. Here's why:

Sandoval, right handed, 2010: 146 PAs - .233/.288/.316/.603
Sandoval, right handed, 2009: 159 PAs - .379/.428/.600/1.028

Pablo Sandoval can't hit left handers. Pablo Sandoval CRUSHES left handers. Which is it? Well, it's neither. Sandoval was simply a better hitter last year, and it happened that he was STRONGER from the right side. This year, for whatever reason, he is struggling as a hitter, and he happens to be weaker from the right side. Why? Quite simply, randomness. That's what it is. It's random. If Sandoval had a serious problem seeing lefties or with his right handed swing, he wouldn't have made it this far as a switch hitter. And he wouldn't have OPS'd over 1.000 last year as a right handed hitter.

He would be better off batting lefty against lefty pitchers, so at least he could concentrate on grooving his lefty swing. That's not going to happen.

This is not a good idea. There is a reason that switch hitters are switch hitters. It is an advantage to hit in the opposite direction of the pitcher. Yet I hear this a lot, that a switch hitter should just focus on the one side. It's usually the side that he is appearing to hit well from. But that kind of thinking ignores what I presented above, that switch hitters don't naturally hit better from a particular side, that it is randomness that makes it appear so.

But at the very least, Sandoval should sit down every time the other team throws a lefty. Take a seat.

Please stop writing with the short phrase style of Ernest Hemingway. "Take a seat". "Hello". "One". We get it. You are making a point. This is not a telegram. Stop. (Yes, I did do right there EXACTLY what I just told you not to.)

Juan Uribe can play 3rd. Aubrey Huff. Freddy Sanchez. Get hot bats in the lineup.

You didn't seriously just suggest that Aubrey Huff play 3rd base. Okay, you did. And yes, Aubrey Huff has played 3rd base in the past. But still, hell no. Aubrey Huff should not play 3rd. Of course, all 3 of these players CAN conceivable play 3rd base in place of Sandoval. But they all already have positions in the starting lineup. So who replaces them?

Shortstop (Uribe): Renteria = Not better than Sandoval
2nd Base (Sanchez): Fontenot = Not better than Sandoval
1st Base (Huff): Ishikawa = Not better than Sandoval, ESPECIALLY NOT AGAINST LEFTIES!

None of these players is better offensively RIGHT NOW than Sandoval, nor do they have the offensive potential of Pablo. So this does not improve the Giants scoring in the least.

I'm not saying the Giants should give up on Panda. But the final 3 weeks of the season is all about now; it's not the time for a reclamation project.

You're right, and if the Giants had a better hitter to put in the infield, then it might be the right move. But any of the hitters that would ostensibly take Sandoval's place as an everyday player are NOT better offensively. Any defensive improvement is negligible at best. So stick with Sandoval, because there's nothing else to do, and he COULD always suddenly heat up.

Oh, one more thing before the clock strikes midnight. Brian Wilson is not a candidate for the NL Cy Young. And he shouldn't be. No reliever should ever be, unless he pitches maybe 100 innings, has a perfect save percentage, and allows .500 baserunners per inning. Only then. Goodnight.

SF 7, SD 3: Giants Win Important Home Game

2010-09-09T22:02:00.000-07:00

You wanna know something? It's a little bit easier to write a recap when the Giants lose because it's easier to complain. When the Giants lose I can criticize the players, the manager, anyone. I can vent, I can curse, I can be angry. It's just easier to focus on the negative. So, maybe tonight's recap will be harder to write, but that's okay because everything went well in this game.

You have to love it when your leadoff hitter sets the tone for the offense and Andres Torres did just that, hitting a leadoff triple to start the game. Freddy Sanchez brought him in with an RBI single to give the Giants a 1-0 lead, but the real story of this game was the power display. Aubrey Huff went deep with a 2-run homer in the 3rd. Juan Uribe hit a solo shot in the 4th. Buster Posey hit a 2-run BOMB in the 5th. And Pat Burrell capped it off with another homer in the 6th. Four home runs in Petco Park, probably the hardest place to go deep in the majors. I just hope they saved some runs for the rest of the series.

Matt Cain was also very good. Actually, he was probably even better than his stat line would suggest. He went 8 IP giving up 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB with 8 K's but really, his only 2 mistakes came on 2 pitches. In the 3rd, he gave up a solo home run to Will Venable and a 2-run shot to Ryan Ludwick late in the game when it didn't really matter. All in all, he was very good. It's feels really nice when the offense and pitching produce at the same time.

How sad are Padres fans? There were just as many Giants fans as Padres fans there. You would've thought it was a home game. I get that the Padres are the most boring team in the league, but they're still in a playoff race. Terrible.

ARI 3, SF 1: Every Game Is Crucial Now

2010-09-08T20:48:00.000-07:00

It seems a bit silly to care about each and every game right now and to react so strongly when the Giants lose. But it really isn't silly at all. This is the last month of the season and when you have a chance to sweep a very, very bad team on the road, you better capitalize. And you know what else? San Diego still scares me. They may have had a 10-game losing streak, but they're about to sweep LA and I don't doubt that they can still shut down our offense and score just enough runs to beat us. With the Rockies slowly creeping up behind us and the most important series of the year so far coming up, tonight's loss was very disappointing.

The loss was that much worse because Barry Zito pitched well for the first time in over a month. It seems like right now he can do no right, as he was hounded by Giants fans on Twitter early tonight when he gave up a couple of runs, but his start was solid. He went 6 IP, giving up 4 H, 2 ER, and 3 BB with 7 K's. That kind of performance should normally be good enough to get the team a win, but the offense failed the Giants tonight.

The only run came from a Freddy Sanchez home run. Surprise!

Tomorrow is the start of an absolutely CRUCIAL series against the Padres. It would've been nice to have been ahead in the standings before facing them, but the Giants have a chance to do some real damage this weekend anyway. It's looking like by the end of the night, they will be 2 games back in the West. It's a 4 game series, so the Giants will need to win at least 3 games to be tied or ahead of San Diego. On the other hand, if the Giants completely fall flat, they'll be in big trouble. Let's hope the pitching staff and the offense bring their A-games this weekend.

It's A Slow Day

2010-09-08T16:03:00.001-07:00

It's cold and overcast here and I'm basically using that as an excuse for me not being able to come up with something to write about today. So, I thought I'd throw out a question for you guys.

Barry Zito is starting tonight, and as the rotation has started to heat up in September, Zito is the lone starter who has not found his groove. As a result, there seems to be a lot of negativity and hate surrounding Zito. I'm not saying it's unwarranted hate, he hasn't looked good for over a month now, but a thought came into my mind.

When the Giants make the playoffs, and if they go with a 3-man playoff rotation, who are your 3 guys?

This is NOT if the season ended today. By the end of the season, when the playoffs come around, which 3 guys do you want starting for the Giants? I think it's an interesting question because despite Zito's struggles, both heads of 8thInningWeirdness would go with Lincecum, Cain, and Zito. But I have a feeling that many of you would choose Bumgarner, maybe Sanchez over Zito.

I think Lincecum and Cain are locks for everybody. If you don't have both of them in your lineup, I would really like you to explain yourself. So, the focus is on the 3rd starter. Personally, I go with Zito because of his postseason experience and because I still think he'll be our 3rd best option. Sanchez is the most erratic of all the Giants starters and by the time the playoffs roll around, Bumgarner might be worn out.

Anyway, leave your 3-man rotation in the comments section and explain why you chose those guys.

SF 6, ARI 3: Tim Lincecum Is A Nasty Man

2010-09-07T20:38:00.000-07:00

So, Tim Lincecum might be back. Yeah, I'm thinking he's gonna be okay. Ignore the fact that he had a rough 7th inning, giving up a 2-run homer and an RBI triple. Tonight he looked like the former Cy Young winner, giving up 5 H and 0 BB with 11 Ks in 6 2/3 innings. He was nasty.

Of course it helped that he got some early run support. The Giants put up 3 runs in the first inning, the first 2 coming on an Aubrey Huff home run. After Buster Posey doubled, Jose Guillen singled him in to make the score 3-0. Now, you make think I'm lying, but Freddy Sanchez hit an opposite field homer in the 5th. Yeah, I was surprised too. The Giants weren't done yet as Pat Burrell hit his own 2-run shot to give the Giants a 6-0 lead. All the scoring was significant because the last time they faced Barry Enright, a game I had to sit through, they couldn't hit anything.

Tonight is already a great night. It could be greater if the Dodgers would beat the Padres, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. God, they're useless.

SF 2, ARI 0: My Pitching Rocks. Your Pitching Sucks.

2010-09-06T17:03:00.000-07:00

I love it. For the past few years, our offense has not been very good. It's been better this year, but still not the strength of the team. And rightfully so, people have wanted more offense for a long time. But damn, I'll take good pitching and bad offense over a good offense and bad pitching any day. There's just nothing more beautiful in baseball than a well-pitched game and the Giants have been having a lot of those recently.

In case you couldn't tell from my introduction, Madison Bumgarner and the bullpen pitched really, really well. Bumgarner was able to hold the D'Backs to just 5 H and 0 ER in 7 1/3 innings, while striking out 7. In the 8th, Bumgarner did give up a leadoff double to the pitcher, Ian Kennedy, and he was promptly taken out of the game. After a flyout that moved Kennedy to 3rd and a walk issued by Sergio Romo, there were runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 out. It was probably the most difficult situation in the game for the Giants and Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez came in to shut down the next two batters. It doesn't really matter if John Bowker even becomes a future All-Star as long as Lopez and Ramirez keep contributing like this to help the Giants into the playoffs.

Unfortunately, Bumgarner didn't get any run support. He couldn't even get measly Felix Hernandez-type support. He got nothing. The Giants got shut down by Ian Kennedy and a couple Diamondbacks relievers and couldn't score until the 11th inning. In that 11th inning with 2 outs, Aubrey Huff singled. Then Buster Posey. And then Nate Schierholtz hit a 2-run triple. Wait, sorry that was a typo. Ha, hahaha, silly me. Not Nate Schierho....OH WAIT IT WAS NATE SCHIERHOLTZ! Holy crap, the guy who's been pretty much forgotten on offense among the 57 outfielders on the roster hit a triple to put the Giants on the board. Brian Wilson finished it off, as usual. Game Over.

The Giants can be tied for the division lead after tonight, with a little help from our enemies down south. Break out those red rally thongs, people.

SF 3, LA 0: Uhh, Sanchy, Uhh...

2010-09-05T20:10:00.001-07:00

I'd heard of Jonathan Sanchez's perfectly shaped and groomed eyebrows before, but it wasn't until tonight that I actually saw the abominations. It's a good thing he pitched one of the best games of his career tonight, because if he hadn't I would probably use this whole recap to question something of his. Go forth, Jonathan, pluck thine eyebrow hairs out, as long as you keep throwing strikes.

Sanchez has gone longer than 7 innings, but he's probably never pitched a bigger game than tonight. Against the Dodgers, in LA, on national tv, in the middle of a September pennant race. And what did he bring? 7 inning, 3 hits, 9 K's, and only ONE WALK. After a perfect 1st inning, it looked like he was starting to lose it in the 2nd when he walked Casey Blake and hit James Loney. But a beautifully turned double play from Juan Uribe got him out of the inning, and from that point he dominated. He only left after the 7th because his pitch count was up to 112, and there was no reason to send him back out. Sergio Romo and Brian Wilson both had perfect innings to close out the game.

The reason Sanchez could comfortably leave the game was because Juan Uribe brought the power again tonight. The Giants already had a 1-0 lead thanks to a sac fly by Sandoval that scored Posey. In the 7th inning, Juan Uribe, who had already been intentionally walked twice, came up with a runner on and flipped a HR into the left field seats. We are used to see Uribe's HRs get driven out, like last night, but this power display was all hands, as he was off balance a bit and didn't get his lower body into the swing. That HR pretty much sealed the deal, as it just didn't seem like the reeling Dodgers would come back from a 3 run deficit. And they never even got close to threatening it. The Giants now go to Arizona, a place they seem to always hit well (although everyone hits well there pretty much). Maybe they could have the division lead BEFORE they visit San Diego for a crucial 4 game series.

SF 5, LA 4: ...And Thence We Came Forth To See Again The Stars

2010-09-04T22:20:00.000-07:00

Juan Uribe does not get on base that much. He plays a lot of positions in the infield, but he's not great at any of them. But goddamn can he hit one out, and it always seems to happen when it matters most. And that's why even with his surprisingly bad OPS+ of 91, he's one of the more valuable players on this team. Jeez, I sound like some writer I'd mock on FJM Friday. You can get that way after a 5-4 comeback win in LA.

But Uribe's no doubter against Broxton was just the final bomb in a barrage of HRs by the Giants near the end of the game. Matt Cain was looking good to begin the game, but the 4th inning was not kind to him. Thankfully, he was able to recover and go 3 more innings, with a final line of 7 innings, 7 hits, 4 ERs, 1 BB, and 6 K's. Buster Posey's HR in the 7th started the Giants comeback, and it was quite impressive. One of the longest HRs I think I've seen a right handed hitter hit at Dodger Stadium. Then Edgar Renteria started the 8th inning with a ball down the left field line that stayed fair to make the score 4-2. Good by Edgar, but I'd be disappointed if that 1 HR earned him lots more playing time. It probably will.

Pat Burrell then came up, and after falling behind 0-2, he battled and battled before sending a shot into left center to make the score 4-3. The Octavio Dotel trade just keeps looking worse and worse for the Dodgers. So does Jonathan Broxton. What the hell happened to him? I remember the days when he was the best of the 3 NL West California Closers. His stuff was electric, and he was giving up just over 5 hits per 9 innings. Now he's post 2005 Brad Lidge. Can't be counted on at all. Sounds good to me.

We've said a lot after Giants losses that "these are the games bad teams lose." Well, this was the kind of game a good team wins. And the Giants are a good team. Good enough? Maybe. The Padres lost today for the 9th straight time. They are falling apart. Hopefully they don't find a way to put it all together right when the Giants go to Petco next week.

LA 4, SF 2: At Least The Padres Suck Too

2010-09-03T21:41:00.001-07:00

It wouldn't have mattered if Barry Zito had pitched a good game today. The Giants managed 2 hits the entire game, and only had 2 more baserunners, both walks from Pat Burrell. That was it. Just another night in Chavez Ravine against Chad Billingsley.

Zito had no command tonight, which is why I somewhat questioned the decision to intentionally walk Barajas to face Billingsley the pitcher with the bases loaded. I understand that Barajas, even though he's not very good, is 10 times the hitter Billingsley is. I just hate the idea of forcing your pitcher to load the bases when he is already struggling with command. We know what happened: Zito went 2-2 to Billingsley and then left a fastball up for him to hit into left field, scoring 2 runs for the Dodgers. That was all they needed.

I got nothing more to say. Read the post below this on the front page to make yourself feel better. It's me being an asshole/douche/prick, and it was fun.

FJM Friday: The AT&T Myth

2010-09-03T13:19:00.000-07:00

I try not to read Ray Ratto that much. It's not that he's a terrible writer, it's simply that I can get discouraged when he is able to pen such hilarious lines like:

"...one would think that Oakland's 4-gamer in NY would cause some local buzz. One would also think that the Easter Bunny is a Teamster."

That's good stuff, folks. So good, I decide to avoid Ray's blog most of the time, because the last thing I want to do is unintentionally start copying his literary style. That would be like one thinking the Tooth Fairy is none other than Doctor Samuel Johnson (huh?).

Anyway, here's a 'lil piece from Ray's CSNBA blog. In this article, he's talking about the explosion of offense we saw in the recent Reds series, and how the extreme (for SF) heat that week turned AT&T Park into U.S. Cellular Field. He proposes that the Giants, if they knew what was best for them, would move their home park to a place that is more conducive for hitting. I know that this piece isn't completely serious, and was written mainly so Ray could craft some humorous gems, as you'll see below. But still, I feel that he is at least SOMEWHAT serious about what he is saying, and what he believes about AT&T Park.

Remember: his words in bold, mine in regular text. Because we use white instead of black for our letters on this blog, sometimes it can be hard to distinguish bold from regular. Hint: the bold stuff is the stuff that is 100% wrong.

Aha! The problem with the Giants' offense finally reveals itself. The ballpark is in the wrong place. Way the wrong place.

The ballpark is in a beautiful location. Every time I sit in the last row of the upper deck, I feel like I have the best seat in the house because of my view of the Bay. It's the best ballpark in baseball. Way the best.

After beating the Cincinnati Reds twice in 3 days by scoring a preposterous 38 runs in 3 games, it can be the only explanation left in a season full of explanations.

There are many explanations for the Giants still having an offense that struggles this season. It could be that they are 8th (out of 16 NL teams) in OBP. Same with slugging. The ONLY explanation is certainly not that it just isn't hot enough in SF. This becomes very clear when we look at the team splits and realize that they slug higher at home than on the road.

The heat...has turned The Thing on King into a veritable bandbox, as verified by manager Bruce Bochy after Tuesday's 16-5 win.

The Thing on King. I like that. I couldn't have thought of something that insanely clever. But I have one question, Ray: why? Oh, it's hilarious, but why say it?

"Most hitters like this kind of weather," he said while walking back to his office. "Days like this, the ballpark plays pretty fair." The intimation, of course, being that it typically isn't, and actually never was. It was, is, and until they lower the right field wall to, say 2.5 feet, a place for pitchers to do their best work. and hitters? Pfah!

More like: research? evidence? science? Pfah!

Nearly all research has concluded that AT&T Park is neutral for the most part. Yes, it can be tough with HRs for left handed hitters. But when it comes to hitting, scoring runs, or what we call "offense", it is right in the middle. Baseball Reference's park factor score for AT&T Park in 2010 is 104, where over 100 favors batters. I could end this right here, because the main point of your article has been proven wrong, but instead I'm gonna keep going and make this post unnecessarily long. It's what I do.

In other words, the Giants need to move the park. To, say, Livermore. Or Morgan Hill. Or Paso Robles.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it can get a 'lil hot in those places. Too bad you didn't give a few more examples, though, maybe 5, or even 7! I wasn't quite sure where you were going with that.

It's either that, or listening incessantly to more years of sports talk radio topics like "Brian Sabean can't develop hitters and he hates math." And I think we can all agree that we've had as much of that heroin-laced idiocy as we can stand.

Heroin? Really? If you were gonna go with the unoriginal, obligatory drug reference, couldn't you have said something better than heroin? Dope fiends just fall asleep when they shoot up, not call sports talk radio. When I read Thomas de Quincey's "Confessions of an Opium Eater" (I actually haven't read it yet, but let's pretend I have for the sake of the awesome 1821 reference), I don't remember him writing editorials in the Westmoreland Gazette about how overrated a cricketer William Clarke was. Oh, and Brian Sabean can't develop hitters for the most part, and he does appear to hate math.

39 runs in 3 games by the home team has never happened in this park. It didn't happen in the Barbie Fun House that was Candlestick Park, either. In fact, it hadn't happened since 1933.

Hasn't it been that hot at AT&T Park at SOME point in the last 10 years? And they didn't score 39 runs. You act as if what happened against the Reds wasn't what it was: just an anomaly, a freak occurrence. Not to mention the Giants franchise played their home games at the Polo Grounds from 1933 to 1958. The Polo Grounds, except for deep center field, was a hitter's paradise. In other words, your point is completely invalid.

While Giants honks will bathe in the comeback, and eternal pessimists will rage over the 5 errors, the secret truth here is that the solution to the offense doesn't require attacking the free agency market. It requires attacking the real estate market.

No.

Will this happen? Not while Baer lives, and not while the housing market remains flat. But watching the gentlemen seriously rake against what is, despite the current evidence, a good pitching staff demands an explanation, and the only thing different about this series was that it was played in Fresno conditions. Hot, with night and morning going to be hot.

Why are we talking about this? We should move the Giants home park as soon as possible because they scored a lot of runs on 3 hot days? And the housing market? Huh? I realized something just now that I hadn't when I started: this is one STUPID FUCKING ARTICLE!

(Hmmm. Maybe that explains how hitters who play in SF tend to stagnate but go down to Central Cali and hit like Tony Gwynn on crank).

Let me say there is NOTHING funnier than saying a person is like someone else "on ______". Gets me EVERYTIME. And it's one of those comedic tricks that just never gets old. Kinda like sarcasm.

SF 2, COL 1: That Feels More Like Giants Baseball

2010-09-01T20:32:00.000-07:00

Ah, low scoring offense and dominant pitching, we have missed you. You bring so much tension, torture, and excitement. And you are especially great when you work together to squeeze out a win.

The first thing that needs to be mentioned about this game is Tim Lincecum's performance. He was absolutely dominant again and it was beautiful. Forget Pablo Sandoval being back, forget Freddy Sanchez being back. The guy who really needs to be back is Tim Lincecum. Really, the Giants are going to need Timmy to be an ace and lead the staff if they are going to go anywhere in the playoffs and he looked like an ace once again tonight. His beautiful stat line from tonight looks like this: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 9 K. It's so important that the Giants take advantage of the Padres' losing streak (now at 7 games) and I know I keep saying it, but the pitching is going to have to lead the charge. That's now 4 quality starts in a row and hopefully Zito can make it 5 on Friday. With these starters pitching as well a they have throughout the last turn in the rotation, the Giants will go on a run. I feel like I'm saying the same thing over and over again, but the the idea of the pitching staff being it's dominant self again gets me so excited. I'm giddy.

Now I'll talk about the little offense that there was. In the 4th inning, Carlos Gonzalez hit a solo home run off of Lincecum to give the Rockies a 1-0 lead. Whatever. Then in the 5th inning, after a Jose Guillen single and a Buster Posey walk, Mike Fontenot had an RBI single, tying the game at 1-1. With the game tied and it seeming like the Giants were never going to score again off of Jimenez, Mike Fontenot drew a walk. The next batter, Tim Lincecum laid down a sac bunt getting Fontenot over to 2nd base. Then, September call-up, Darren Ford, came in to pinch-run. Right away, on a wild pitch from Jimenez that barely got away from Miguel Olivo, Ford stole 3rd and on a throwing error from Olivo, went home. It's too bad he can't hit, but the guy can RUN. It was amazing that he came home all the way from 2nd on that play. The Giants led 2-1 and Brian Wilson closed it out with a perfect 9th. Simple. Business as usual. Whatever.

Not to boast, but as time goes on, I love the name of this blog more and more. I will admit that Reza and I were a little iffy on the name 8thInningWeirdness when we first started the blog, but it's the perfect name for a Giants blog because there will always be 8th Inning Weirdness.

We're Gonna Need a Bigger Bench...

2010-09-01T16:00:00.001-07:00

It's September: time to welcome in the guys that aren't going to help us at all!

At least that's how it looks to me. Dan Runzler and Edgar Renteria will be coming back. Runzler should help in the bullpen, especially if Jeremy Affeldt continues to struggle. Renteria should be useful for pinch hit walk off singles in the 16th inning. Other than that, some guys we've seen before (Velez, Rohlinger, Burriss) could all join the team. Maybe they could start a poker tournament amongst themselves to occupy their time.

Then there is Dontrelle Willis. Looks like the Giants WANT to bring him up, but is it a good idea? He's only pitched 10.1 innings with the Giants minor league teams, so it's a very small sample size. But they have not been pretty. At all. Too bad. I wish Dontrelle could help the Giants. Last night I fell in love with Aroldis Chapman's delivery, and it's not too different from Willis'. Guys like that have a real old school feel about them, which is great because baseball is all about history. Unfortunately, Dontrelle's career might finally be history, unless the Giants take a wild chance and bring him up this September.

It doesn't appear that the Giants will come close to having a late season rookie debut as exciting as Aroldis Chapman was for the Reds last night. In all likelihood, Brandon Belt will go straight from Fresno to the Arizona Fall League once the AAA season is over. I'm fine with that. There aren't many at bats to go around, so instead of spending all his time on the bench, Belt can continue his development towards being the next Will Clark.

Outfielder Darren Ford was added today to the major league roster from AA Richmond. Last year, Ford had a good year offensively in San Jose, putting up a .300/.386/463/.849 line. This year, with more at bats in Richmond, his offense has dropped off. Of course, we know that the Eastern League can be tough to hit in, but his .680 OPS does not make him a great offensive replacement. Ford is reported to have great speed, so he could be a good pinch running option late in the game. However, I hope Bruce Bochy doesn't take that to mean he should be stealing bases. Ford had 3 great base stealing seasons in A ball, stealing 60+ each year with a success rate of 82%. However, last year in San Jose and this season in Richmond, he's stolen far fewer, and only at a 72% rate. I know that may seem like not much of a decline, but that 10% makes a HUGE difference. At 72%, you are barely breaking even in providing value with your stolen bases. At 82% with a large counting number like 67, you are helping a lot. If Darren Ford is getting caught a lot in AA ball, it's probably not a good idea to give him the green light in the big leagues.

SF 5, COL 2: Weirdness of the 8th Inning Variety

2010-08-31T21:59:00.000-07:00

I am responsible for this win. This is your proof.

Yes, things were looking all too similar to last night until Andres Torres saved the day. I'll start from the beginning of the story. The Giants immediately showed how powerful their offense is by scoring early on a balk from Esmil Rogers in the 1st inning. Unfortunately, the Rockies came back to score on a sac fly in the 2nd inning, making the score 1-1. The score stayed like that for a while, as the former Cy Young winner, Rogers, was dominating the Giants lineup. Rogers never won the Cy Young because he's not very good but at least me imagining him as a former Cy Young winner makes our effort against him today feel less pathetic. Anyway....in the 5th inning, the Giants were able to score again on Madison Bumgarner's double and Bruce Bochy pondered permanently moving him to 3rd in the order. Now the score was 2-1, Giants. Here comes the "here we go again" part. In the 8th inning, with a 1 run lead, Melvin "I'm Not Good But I Hit Cleanup" Mora hit a homer off of Jeremy Affeldt. Tie. Game. Once again it seemed like the offense's inability to score was going to cost us. But wait, there is more weirdness.

The first batter in the bottom of the inning, Andres "I Carry A Big Stick If You Know What I Mean" Torres, glorious man that he is, belted a home run to right field giving the Giants a 3-2 lead. If that wasn't enough, Buster Posey followed it up by hitting a 2-run double with the bases loaded. There was a collective sigh of relief among the fanbase. Nice of you to finally join us, offense. Brian Wilson closed out the 9th with an 8-pitch save and everyone lived happily ever after.

Madison Bumgarner pitched the 3rd consecutive quality start from a Giants starting pitcher tonight. It wasn't always pretty, as he walked 3 batters and struck out just 2 while going 6 IP, but hey, it was a nice bounce back after his disaster start last week, and he only allowed 1 run. Like you can read about in this post, this pitching staff may be coming back to dominance, which is the best news a Giants fan could hear. Let's see if Lincecum joins the party tomorrow night. I'm sure there's no one happier than him that tomorrow is the first day of September.

The Padres lost tonight, so the Giants are 4 games back in the NL West. Maybe they're finally slowing down, as they've lost 6 games in a row. It's about time! I'm completely tired of them. It doesn't add up. They should not be the best team in the National League. No.

Please feel free to leave your thoughts in the Comments section.

The Good From Last Night

2010-08-31T11:36:00.000-07:00

Okay, last night's game was terrible. The Giants blew a lead against a team that is slowly creeping up behind them in the standings and they failed to capitalize on a night when both the Wild Card and division leaders lost. Maybe that flyball was a freak play and every outfielder would have charged in to get it. Fine, I think I can buy that. But Freddy Sanchez's terrible bounce pass to 3rd base gave up the lead, and none of it would've mattered if the Giants scored more than one pathetic run. The game was lost yesterday because of bad defense and bad offense. However, last night's game was a good sign for one reason, though. The pitching. For once, I'm going to be optimistic.

The pitching struggles in August have been well-documented. During this month, they've had a 4.65 ERA, good for 3rd worst in the NL. Pretty surprising that our pitching, and not the offense, is costing us down the stretch. Obviously this team is carried by the pitching staff, so they won't be going anywhere near the playoffs if the staff doesn't get back on track. But yesterday, Jonathan Sanchez, the most erratic of all the Giants' starting pitchers, pitched a gem. And the day before, Matt Cain had a quality start. Two back-to-back quality starts from the staff is an extremely welcome sight. Cain has been pretty great all season, but if guys like Sanchez, Zito and Lincecum can get back to their early season dominance, this team's going to be hard to beat. You can tell all of the starters feed off of each other. If everyone's pitching well, no one wants to be the one to break the streak. Like I said a couple of days ago, it just takes a couple of good starts in a row for the staff to get back on track.

I'm willing to bet that last night's game was an anomaly. Our defense is in a pretty bad spell right now, committing 11 errors in the last 5 games. That is terrible and they are not a terrible defensive team. (Jose Guillen is pretty bad though. Despite last night's misplay, Cody Ross is definitely the best option out there.) They aren't great, having below average guys at 3B, SS, and LF, but they don't make too many errors and they're not 11 errors in 5 games bad. Also, the offense should be able to score more often than not. With Sandoval and Sanchez getting hot the lineup now has Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Burrell, Posey, and Sandoval all hitting well. That's not a bad lineup at all. But the key to winning is still the pitching and if last night was any indication, the pitching could be close to regaining form. Maybe the Giants can finally combine good pitching, good hitting, and better defense at the same time. This team needs a run, a July type streak, to get to the playoffs and if that's going to happen, the starters need to get hot.