The Remaining Schedule

Will they be this happy at the end of the year?

Obviously the Giants are not playing too well right now. After going 20-8 in July, they've struggled in August and it is extremely possible that the Giants' hot streak in July was kind of a fluke. They played no first place teams during the entire month, and August has immediately proven to be much tougher. They have already lost series' against Atlanta and San Diego, two first place teams, and still have games against Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Cincinnati. August will definitely be a challenge and I thought we'd take a look at the Giants' remaining schedule and how well they need to play to make it to the postseason.

First we'll take a look at how the Giants have to fare in order to win the division. Their remaining opponents have a combined .510 winning percentage. Right now the Giants sit at 67-53* and the Padres are 71-47*. Looking at the Padres schedule, their remaining opponents have a combined .506 winning percentage, so their strength of schedules are basically equal. So if we assume the Padres play .500 baseball over their last 44 games, which is pretty wishful thinking, they will end the season at 93-69. When you consider that the Padres haven't slowed down all year and probably will play better than .500 ball for the rest of the season, the Giants are probably going to have to win 93-97 games to win the division. That would mean in their last 42 games they'd need to win 26-30 games. Not impossible at all, but they'd need a couple of July type months in order to pass the Padres.

A more realistic shot at the playoffs may come by winning the Wild Card. Right now the Phillies have 2 game lead over the Giants in the Wild Card race with a 67-51* record and St. Louis is just a half game back of us. Philadelphia has a relatively easy schedule from here on out, as the only first or second place teams they will play are Atlanta and San Diego. If we assume they play .500 baseball the rest of the way, again unlikely considering their strength of schedule and the fact that Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have been injured, they would finish the season at 89-73. St. Louis also has a pretty easy schedule to end the season, playing just 3 teams (Atlanta, Cincinnati, and San Diego) that are in 1st or 2nd place. Assuming St. Louis goes .500 to end the season, they would be 87-75.

So, it looks like the Giants are going to have to win 90-95 games to get into the playoffs. That means they have to play slightly better than .500 for the remainder of the season, which may be a lot to ask for from a team that's struggling right now. They are capable of playing that well, but the Giants need to be the team they were in July and not the team they've been so far in August. They need to show that they can beat good teams. In July they feasted on bad teams, but on the year they are 31-42 against teams that are over .500. Every other NL contender has a winning record against winning teams. That needs to change, and the remaining schedule should be a good test of whether or not they are a true contender.

*All records are as of this morning.

The Value of Prospects in Trades

As you probably already know, it's trading season in baseball. Yesterday we posted a Trade Deadline Preview, and today we're going to focus specifically on minor league prospects and the value they have in trades.

When teams are trading away their proven major league hitters, what do they normally want in return? Prospects. Everybody loves prospects. They are young, cheap, and have the potential to be great someday. Prospects are the most valuable commodities in a trade in baseball. Teams want them and teams don't want to give them up. But to get something good, you have to give up something good, and many times there is a reluctance to trade prospects because of the potential they have.

I understand the reluctance. Even I am fascinated by the draft and the potential of minor league players and I think developing a deep farm system should be a top priority for teams. I understand how exciting it can be to think about how a prospect will impact your team in a few years. But one of the benefits of having a deep farm system is that it also gives you so much more ammo to improve your big league team through trades. The key word with prospects is potential. It's important to realize that prospects are unproven players at the major league level. No matter how good their numbers in the minors are, they are no guarantee. They do have value, but they shouldn't be a deal breaker if it means acquiring a proven, game-changing major league player.

It was amazing to me that about a month ago over at McCovey Chronicles, there was a thread on the topic of trading Prince Fielder for Jonathan Sanchez and Thomas Neal, and the overwhelming majority did NOT want to do that trade for the Giants. Now, there are other concerns about acquiring Prince Fielder, mostly his weight and contract status, but it seemed that most people would trade him for Sanchez, they just didn't want to include Thomas Neal. Neal is probably one of the Giants top 3 prospects along with Brandon Belt and Zack Wheeler, but he's struggled so far in Double-A and is high prospect status is mostly based on the HUGE numbers he put up in single-A. Last year he hit 22 home runs with a 1.010 OPS, but this year he has a .779 OPS. Double-A is a much tougher league and maybe he needs another year to adjust, but he was also a 36th round draft pick. I don't know the success rate of 36th round draft picks, but I can tell you it's not good. So, it seemed like Giants fans didn't want to trade for one of the Top 15 hitters in baseball who has proven himself because they wanted to hold onto a prospect struggling in Double-A. I do really like Neal, but this is a case of overvaluing prospects based on what they MIGHT do in the future.

To show how much of a non-guarantee prospects are, we can look at some trades that involved "top prospects" at the time. You know who the Mets had to trade to get Johan Santana? Top prospect Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey were traded to the Twins. Gomez is now a terrible No. 8 hitter for the Brewers, Philip Humber is a 27 year old pitcher struggling in AAA, Guerra is also struggling in AAA, and so is Mulvey. So, the best player out of that group is probably Gomez because he at least plays good defense, and the Mets got one of the top pitchers in baseball. All of those prospects were considered to be pretty good, but none of them ever worked out. In the same year, we can look at the deal that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers for a package of 6 prospects, the main ones being "top prospects" Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Maybin has bounced between AAA and the big leagues for a couple of years now and hasn't really shown anything in the big leagues. Miller is a 25 year old pitcher struggling in AAA. None of the other prospects worked out either. Both of these trades show you how prospects are never a sure thing and there shouldn't be such an unwillingness to trade them for good, proven major league players that can help a team win a World Series now.

Obviously, different prospects have different values. If you're going to trade your No. 1 prospect and one of the best prospects in baseball, you need to be getting something really, really good back in return. Guys like Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner were pretty much untouchable to me, but Thomas Neal is not nearly the prospect that those guys were. It's all about maximizing the value of prospects. I might be reluctant to trade Brandon Belt because he's dominated minor league pitching in just his first year of professional baseball. But I'd trade him for one of the top hitters in baseball. I would include Thomas Neal in a trade for Fielder but I wouldn't necessarily want to trade him for 2 months of Jayson Werth. I wouldn't want to trade a top 5 prospect in our system like Tim Alderson for Freddy Sanch...oh, wait that already happened. We now know that Alderson is no good, as he's struggling in A ball, but he had value that probably could've gotten something better than Freddy Sanchez in return and the Giants didn't maximize that value.

The point is, the art of evaluating prospects is tricky. They are completely unknown, unreliable, unproven, uncertain, whatever you want to call it. More often than not, prospects won't pan out. Some prospects you trade might go on to have great careers with other teams, but if it means that you acquire a proven hitter that could help you win just 1 World Series, it should all be worth it. Being reluctant to trade unproven players with potential for proven, game changing hitters in the major leagues just doesn't make a lot of sense.

Giants Trade Deadline Preview

The trade deadline is less than a week away, and with the Giants 3 games back in the division and leading the wild card, it's pretty clear that a move or two will be made to improve the team. With the injuries to Dan Runzler and Jeremy Affeldt, and the overall shoddy performance of the bullpen recently, talk of dealing for a reliever has been hot. But it's hard to really know which relievers are available out there, or how good they are. Plus, middle relievers are boring. So while I hope the Giants can patch up their bullpen, my eye is still on the offensive upgrades they could make before the deadline. Here are names that the Giants have been tied to, along with my opinion on them, and what it might take to get them.

Note: The stats listed are as follows - BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and wOBA. wOBA is courtesy of fangraphs.com. It is a stat that attempts to weigh all offensive outcomes with their proper value, to show the overall offensive output of a player. The number value is calculated to be on the same scale as OBP. For instance, a .400+ wOBA would be considered an MVP type season. Babe Ruth has the all time highest career wOBA, .510.

Adam Dunn - .281 / .369 / .565 / .935 / .396
If Washington will trade Adam Dunn for Jonathan Sanchez plus prospects, the Giants should do it. Here's why: unlike Fielder or Werth, it appears that Dunn would be willing to sign a contract extension rather than enter the market this winter. Dunn has been one of the most underrated sluggers of the past decade. He was a butcher in the outfield with Cincinnati, killing his overall value in the past, but he has been much more average at 1st base this year. With his hitting ability, you really wonder why an American League team didn't sign him as a DH in 2009.

Josh Willingham - .273 / .401 / .479 / .880 / .391
Willingham is a very attractive player. His OBP, in relation to his BA, is nothing short of arousing. At 31, he's in fact older than his teammate Dunn, but he isn't a free agent next year. His offense is pretty consistent year to year. Would I give up the Dunn package for Willingham? I'm not sure. He had a red hot month of May, and since then his power has dropped.

Jose Guillen - .273 / .334 / .460 / .794 / .347
Before he was sidelined for the rest of the season, David DeJesus was one of the names most often linked to the Giants. Looking back now, it would have been nice to get DeJesus if the deal didn't include Jonathan Sanchez. He'd have been great hitting behind Andres Torres in the 2-hole. Now fellow Royal Jose Guillen is on the Giants' radar. I'm against such an acquisition, really no matter what it costs. Guillen's power numbers this year are a little intriguing, but what's the point when you already have Pat Burrell, who gets on base much more efficiently? He's no real upgrade on defense, and he has a history of clubhouse problems. This would be a pointless acquisition.

Prince Fielder - .262 / .399 / .506 / .904 / .394
It's going to be pretty much impossible for the Giants to acquire Fielder, but it's still fun to think about. They won't trade Cain or Lincecum for him, and they shouldn't. They should trade J. Sanchez/Bumgarner and prospects for him, but they won't, and it's unlikely the Brewers would be satisfied with that. I'm surprised by people that think Jonathan Sanchez is worth more than even just 1.5 years of Prince Fielder. Try naming 10 hitters under 30 in baseball that are better than Fielder. Hell, forget the under 30 part. It can't be done.

Corey Hart - .292 / .349 / .568 / .917 / .389
Corey Hart is the name most linked to the Giants this year. His recent injury is very minor apparently, so he's still on the trading block. Hart hasn't cooled down from his great first half, and you can't deny his offensive production this season. I'm wary of giving up anything good for him though, because of his 2 previous seasons, in which he OPS'd .759 and .753. To be fair, in 2007 he had a year comparable to this season. But he's just not a sure thing offensively like other players on this list. And his defense, contrary to popular belief, is not very good. Definitely not worth Jonathan Sanchez.

Jorge Cantu - .260 / .309 / .412 / .721 / .315
Cantu is probably the worst player on this list that the Giants are interested in. He would be a DOWNGRADE from the players he'd be replacing. Nothing about him is interesting or good. He will not help this team. It's disturbing that he's being mentioned in Giants' rumors recently.

Luke Scott - .296 / .363 / .576 / .939 / .402
Luke Scott is the most interesting name on this list. He's really under the radar, and has been his entire career, but this year he is just as productive as anyone the Giants have been linked to. He's the left-handed bat they are looking for, and his above-average but unspectacular previous seasons make him cheaper than Dunn or Fielder. The Orioles also have a lefty reliever, Will Ohman, that the Giants are interested in. A package deal of both could be very helpful.

Derrek Lee - .251 / .338 / .391 / .729 / .323
Lee will be a free agent after the season, when he will be 35. He is the definition of rental, because it's unlikely the Giants would want to resign him. Lee has had a few great offensive seasons, but also a lot of simply good ones. I don't see the point in acquiring Lee and banking on him turning it around, when the players he would be replacing (Burrell, Ishikawa) are performing better this year. Another name that has been mentioned for the Giants in connection to Lee is SS Ryan Theriot. That is absurd. I have no idea how Theriot could possibly help the Giants. He has as LITTLE power as anyone in the NL. He sucks. How do people come up with this stuff?

Lance Berkman - .236 / .360 / .420 / .781 / .345
Where I don't see the upside in Derrek Lee, I do in Lance Berkman. He's having his worst season ever, but the guy has been one of the best sluggers of the past decade. This is the kind of rental I would approve of, as long as it didn't cost the Giants too much. I could see him raising his performance on a contending team. Unfortunately, Berkman hates AT&T Park. Maybe former teammate Aubrey Huff could convince him it's not as much of a pitcher's park as he thinks.

Jayson Werth - .286 / .379 / .506 / .885 / .382
Werth is a very good player. He walks, he hits for power, and he plays defense well. He's a free agent this offseason, so his bat can be gotten for cheaper than usual from the Phillies. However, is he worth the contract he'll ask for this winter? No, probably not. So if the Giants want to trade for Werth, they have to ask themselves: do we want to trade for just 2 months of him, can we resign him, and is he worth resigning?

Jose Bautista - .242 / .355 / .548 / .903 / .386
Bautista would seem like a good pickup for a team needing offense. His numbers this year are very similar to Adam Dunn's, and he has more positional versatility than Dunn. Here's the problem: Dunn has a career OPS of .905. Bautista's is .758. Before his offensive explosion this year, the dude was simply not good. A below average player. It's really quite stunning how well he's hitting this year. And it's very likely that at some point he will regress. And regress a lot. Take a chance on him if he's cheap, but he's not worth anything valuable.

Adam LaRoche - .255 / .331 / .450 / .781 / .340
LaRoche is almost as much of a non-difference maker as Jorge Cantu. I worry that he's exactly the kind of left-handed bat that will shrivel at AT&T Park. His defense is annoying to watch. On the other hand, his teammate Kelly Johnson is very interesting, if only we didn't have the singles hitter installed at 2nd base. It'd also be nice to have a young shortstop, and Stephen Drew, while not helping this year, would fit the bill. After the Dan Haren trade, Arizona's front office has shown that they WANT to be used and abused. They're asking for it. Let's steal some of their guys for next to nothing. Do they know Kevin Pucetas has a .698 W-L percentage?

Carlos Zambrano - 55.2 IP, 5.66 ERA, 1.689 WHIP, 2.12 K/BB, 1.0 HR/9
Carlos Zambrano is having a terrible year for his standards, but I never felt it was bad enough for the Cubs to move him to the bullpen. Now he's persona non grata in Chicago, and available for any team that wants to risk dealing with his temper and the $44 million left on his contract. It has been suggested that the Giants could swap Aaron Rowand for Big Z, as Rowand is another player not living up to his contract. I believe Zambrano, as a former ace, has a lot more value than Aaron Rowand. If the Giants trade one of their starters for a bat, they'll need someone to fill that spot. Zambrano could be the one. Sure his numbers this year are bad. But there's nothing wrong with having a former ace who is 29 as your 5th starter. Think of Joel Pineiro. Carl Pavano. Pitchers can always have comebacks.

Phil Cuzzi: Douchebag Extraordinaire

Forget that the Giants didn't hit for 8 innings. Forget that Freddy Sanchez really should have been able to hit something better than that weak grounder. Forget that they had a chance to tie the game in the 10th inning. This game today was won, and then taken away, by umpire Phil Cuzzi. But it wasn't just Cuzzi's blown call at home that put him in the spotlight today. Throughout the game, both benches were not happy with the strike zone. After a couple close pitches were not called the Mets' way in the bottom of the 9th, Cuzzi suddenly, and bizzarely, took off his mask and started screaming at God-knows-who. After the Ishikawa debacle, Aubrey Huff hit a fair ball that was called foul by the third base ump, and Cuzzi saw no need to overturn it. His awful strike zone continued into the 10th inning, against both Brian Wilson and K-Rod. Clearly this is a man who does not like his judgment to be questioned. Yet throughout Cuzzi's umpiring career, his ability and judgment has been questioned often. Phil was a minor league umpire from '91 to '93, until he was fired. Yes, you heard right: Cuzzi was fired as a minor league ump.

How did he make it to The Show? In 1996, Phil the ump was Phil the bartender, working at the Short Hills Hilton near Philadelphia. It was there that he came across Leonard Coleman, then supervisor of the National League. Somehow, Phil was able to get the supervisor to let him back into minor league umpiring. Why did Coleman do this? Had he gone crazy? Perhaps he was wearing a burgundy coat, and would eventually attempt to murder his wife and child with an axe (Coleman was quoted as saying to Cuzzi: "Phil, you're the best goddamn umpire from here to Portland, Maine, or Portland, Oregon for that matter").

Phil discusses his hopes for a second chance with Leonard Coleman.

When Phil finally made it to the Bigs in 1999, what began was a long stretch of confrontations with managers and controversial calls. Here are some notables:

June 25, 2010: Phil rings up James Loney of the Dodgers, ending the game, the culmination of a long night of questionable strike calls. As Loney walks back to the dugout, Cuzzi walks with him, and when the exchange gets heated, Cuzzi throws out Loney. That's right, he threw a guy out when the game was ALREADY OVER. Not to mention he did the worst thing an umpire can do, which is engage a player or coach in argument, baiting them into getting thrown out.

August 8, 2007: Cuzzi once again showed his tendency to engage managers, when he jawed with Ozzie Guillen till Guillen came out of the dugout and was thrown out. Guillen was quoted as saying: "From 1985 to now, I don't see any umpire disrespect players and managers the way that guy does".

Game 4, 2005 NLCS: Jim Edmonds was up in the 8th inning with the tying run on base. With the count 3-1, Edmonds took a pitch and started toward first, only for Cuzzi to call it a strike. When Edmonds turned around to ask where the pitch was, Cuzzi tossed him. The Cardinals would lose the game and the series.

2003: In his 2nd to last game of the season, Roy Halladay was pitching for a Cy Young and a team record 22nd win. When Halladay threw a pitch inside to Rocco Baldelli, Phil decided it was intentional, and threw Halladay out of the game, a shocking move based on the circumstances. No one, including Baldelli, thought Halladay was trying to hit him.

Game 2, 2009 ALDS: Ah, Phil's masterpiece, his 9th symphony, his Hamlet. In a tied game in the 9th inning, Joe Mauer hit a ball down the left field line, which hit off Melky Cabrera's glove in fair territory and went into the stands. Phil was the left field umpire, and despite being no more than 20 ft. away, looking right at the play, he called the ball foul. The call was so easy, it has been cited since as a great example of the need for instant replay in baseball. Perhaps baseball should just fire Phil Cuzzi.

Did you know one of 'ol Phil's hobbies is taxidermy? Second only to shitty dancing.

International Free Agency

MLB's International free agent signing period begins on July 2nd, which is fast approaching. I'm no expert on the international free agents, but it is an aspect of baseball that has always interested me. I'm of the opinion that teams need to spend less money in free agency and more money in the draft and on international amateurs, and seeing as the Giants' draft was pretty underwhelming, I'm hoping they invest a fair amount in the international market. The Giants have dipped into the international free agency pool before of course, signing Angel Villalona for $2.1 million in 2006. He never really played too well and, uh, he could very well be going to prison for alleged murder, so I guess that didn't work out very well. Since then they haven't done much besides signing Rafael Rodriguez for $2.55 million in 2008. Anyway, here are a few names that seem like intriguing options for the Giants:

Eskarlin Vasquez, OF - Vasquez is a right fielder from the Dominican Republic with a very strong arm. Potentially a five-tool prospect, he has good power and many scouts believe he's the best position player available. Back on May 17, Frankie Piliere of MLB Fanhouse said the Giants were the favorites to land him.

Vicmal De La Cruz, OF - Others might think De La Cruz has the best bat of anyone in this class. He is a potential five-tool prospect with maybe the highest upside of anyone on this list.

Phillips Castillo, OF - Castillo is another outfielder from the Dominican Republic who's calling card is his power. He could be the best power bat in this class and he could come cheaper than others.

Martin Steylon Peguero, SS - Tools, tools, tools. That's what this guy is all about. He's raw and athletic but supposedly has huge upside and power potential. A power bat at a premium position sounds good to me. Too bad the Giants never go after raw hitters, probably because they know they are too incompetent to develop them.

Elvis Sanchez, 3B - Sounds a little like Pablo Sandoval. He's improved his body a lot but still may have to move off third in the future. His main tool is POWER. He's got lots of it, and I yearn for a time when the Giants will have a legit power hitter.

Luis Heredia, RHP - Maybe the best pitcher from this class of free agents, this kid is only 15 years old. He's already 6'4" and is extremely projectable. He'll be tough to sign though. His team in Mexico owns his rights and according to MLBTradeRumors, the Giants, Pirates, Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Rangers are all interested.

Geronimo Fransua, LHP - He's thin and projectable like a lot of the guys on this list. His velocity is already in the low-90s and he may have room to fill out and reach up into the mid-90s. He's also got some decent secondary pitches that will improve over time.

Luis Abad, RHP - Abad, also from the Dominican Republic, is really interesting because he's another pitcher with high upside. He's 160 pounds and can run his fastball up to the mid-90s with extremely good movement.

Jorge Feliz, RHP - Feliz throws in the low-90s with an already good curveball. These prospects don't normally have plus secondary pitches, so Feliz could be interesting.

Roughned Odor, SS - This guy is mostly on the list because of his name. Besides his awesome, or terribly unfortunate (depending on how you look at it) name, Odor is expected to be a high average hitter who can stay at shortstop. Those guys are always nice to have.

The farm system is fairly weak right now, so the Giants could use some young talent. Expect them to sign one or two guys from this list.