FJM Friday: This Isn't Really Fair...

...but we're gonna do it anyway. Before Tim Lincecum had one of the best playoff pitching performances ever, Cam Inman wrote a piece where he tried to argue that Tim Lincecum can't be expected to pitch well in his postseason debut. A very fair thing to say, but the reasons he listed were awful, and warranted this short FJM Friday post. Note that had Lincecum not pitched well yesterday, Inman would have still been wrong.

Giants ace Tim Lincecum gets his turn tonight. To pitch a no hitter as Roy Halladay did in his postseason debut? Whoa, hold on there.

Yeah, about that...

Now is a great time to temper those enormous expectations of Lincecum...Lincecum did not pitch great in his first big-league debut. Or in his first Giants season opener. Or in his first All-Star Game. He made lackluster first impressions on those big stages. Tonight's platform looms larger.

It's quite fair to temper expectations for Lincecum, as with any pitcher. But the examples he cites as predictive are ludicrous (really any examples that supposedly would contain a predictive quality would be foolish). Lincecum is a completely different pitcher than the one that debuted against the Phillies in 2007. So he had a bad 2009 season opener. So what? And the All Star Game means nothing. It's not even a real game. You could point to as many games where Lincecum has performed well in pressure situations (and that would be wrong also). He pitched very well in the 2010 season opener. He was amazing this September in a pennant stretch. Anything could have happened yesterday; he happened to pitch like Bob Gibson. There was no way of seeing it coming. But there was certainly no reason to think he wouldn't pitch like that because of a poor performance in April of 2009.

It may go great, like Halladay's. Or perhaps he will follow in the Giants franchise lore of Christy Mathewson, whose playoff debut came in the 1905 World Series and featured 3 shutout victories in 6 days.

That's more like it.

2010 NLDS Game 1: SF 1, ATL 0

The San Francisco Giants have won Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS against the Atlanta Braves. There will be talk tonight of the blown call at 2nd base on Buster Posey's attempted steal, and how he came around to score the only run of the game. But not here. As important as these issues of instant replay are, I can't bring myself to even worry one bit about it, in the face of what we just saw. We just saw something incredible, folks.

Tim Lincecum: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 14 K, 119 pitches, Game Score of 96

It was gonna be hard to top Roy Halladay's postseason debut from yesterday. But Tim Lincecum may have just done it. Lincecum, with a game score of 96 today, achieved the 3rd highest ever in playoff history. The word dominant does not do it justice. It is the kind of game that becomes legendary in a team's history. In the 150+ year history of baseball, performances like this have happened only a handful of times. Only the very best can do this. Tim Lincecum won 2 Cy Young awards in 2008 and 2009. Then, this season, he went through almost a 4 month slump. People wondered if he would ever be the same. Since September, he is as good as he has ever been. And doing it in games that mean more than they have ever meant. I can't say much more about it. I'm speechless.

Of course, part of the reason Lincecum's line looks so impressive is because he finished the game. There was quite a debate on twitter about whether or not this was wise, with a lot of good points both ways. Here's how I see it: Yes, Brian Wilson is a very good closer, and yes, the Braves are not good offensively. But I think that anytime your best pitcher can pitch, in a close playoff game, you let him. You take no chances. It's very possible that Lincecum's extended outing tonight (119 pitches) could keep him from pitching on short rest this series, should the Giants need that. But 119 pitches isn't a TERRIBLY long outing, and he very rarely threw stressful pitches. And maybe I just don't feel the same way as everyone else about Brian Wilson. He's a great pitcher, but I think the only closer you can call "automatic" is Rivera. Lincecum, in my estimation, is far more of a sure thing than Wilson, even over 100 pitches. My main point is that a playoff game is not the time to save your pitchers. Postseason might last a month, but it goes by FAST, and if you don't do everything in every game to win, you'll regret it.

HEY! THE BATS NEED TO WAKE UP FOR TOMORROW! SCORE SOME RUNS! THIS COULD HAVE EASILY BEEN A VERY UGLY, PAINFUL GAME!

NLDS Roster Update

The roster has been set and announced. You can see the roster and Andrew Baggarly's analysis here.

No Jose Guillen, which is a bit of a surprise. Apparently his neck may be bothering him more than we thought. And no Barry Zito. I think you know our position on that decision by now. Mota, Rowand, Ishikawa, and Renteria are all in.

Discuss in the comments section if you'd like.

2010 MLB Awards

The playoffs have already started, and Roy Halladay has already thrown only the 2nd no hitter in postseason history. Before anything else historic happens, 8th Inning Weirdness is here to give you their picks for the 2010 regular season awards. In honor of today's extraordinary achievement, we will start in the NL, with the Cy Young award. You'll notice, by the way, how much more interested I am in the Cy Young debates than anything else.

Note: I decided to skip the AL Rookie of the Year award, because I just don't watch the AL enough, and anyway, there weren't a ton of great candidates like there were in the NL. Just give it to a rookie closer. Neftali Feliz? That'll do.

NL Cy Young Winner: Roy Halladay
2nd: Adam Wainwright
3rd: Ubaldo Jimenez
4th: Josh Johnson
5th: Roy Oswalt

If you've done your reading, you know that this future Hall of Famer is pretty much the unanimous choice for what would be his 2nd Cy Young award. And the voters will get it right. Halladay is having the best season of his career. He's striking out more hitters than he ever has, and walking as few as ever. He once again led the league in innings pitched, complete games, and shutouts. Halladay, 33 now, is clearly in the middle of his prime. Right now, there's no better pitcher in baseball. And I would have said that before tonight. Yet the NL Cy Young award decision is not as obvious as it seems. Adam Wainwright looks to be the Juan Marichal of this generation. A fantastic pitcher, but never quite the best in any particular year. Wainwright's 2010 season is great, even better than his Cy Young caliber season last year. But simply not better than Halladay. Ubaldo Jimenez had one of the best 1st halfs ever, but didn't sustain it. And Josh Johnson could have possibly beaten Halladay if he had stayed healthy. I went with Roy Oswalt in the 5th spot. Amazingly, I could have just as easily gone with Tim Lincecum. Don't ask why I chose Oswalt. I just did.

AL Cy Young Winner: Felix Hernandez
2nd: Cliff Lee
3rd: Jered Weaver
4th: Justin Verlander
5th: Jon Lester

It's strange; King Felix is only 24 years old. He's the youngest "great" pitcher in baseball. Yet he already has that Al Pacino feel about him, that he's missed out on too many Cy Young's, and that it's time to give it to him already. Of course, this is just a feeling, because the only season he's ever been a legit contender was 2009. He had a great season last year, but Zack Greinke's was substantially better. Not the case this season. Felix should, and I think will win the award for 2010. His main competitors, CC Sabathia and David Price, are great pitchers, but objectively speaking, they don't even belong in the top 5. The only true competition he has is Cliff Lee, and it is serious competition. Lee had a magnificent season, posting the 2nd highest K/BB ratio EVER. When I made this list, I set out knowing I'd pick Felix, then realized just how great Lee had been, and tried in my mind to find a way to justify Lee not winning it. It all comes down to this: Felix made 6 more starts than Lee; who would you win more games with: Felix in 34 starts, or Lee in 28? I gotta go with King Felix. Jered Weaver comes in 3rd; he just keeps getting better, and I don't think Anaheim Stadium has much to do with it. I was surprised by what a fine season Justin Verlander has had. I haven't thought much at all about him since the 2006 World Series. Someone recently called him the "worst great pitcher in baseball". I finish the list out with Jon Lester. He had a better season than Sabathia and Price, period.

NL MVP Winner: Joey Votto
2nd: Albert Pujols
3rd: Ryan Zimmerman
4th: Troy Tulowitzki
5th: Andres Torres

This is one is close, but pretty easy. Votto was slightly better than Pujols, quite an achievement for any player. Pujols is still the best player in baseball. Ryan Zimmerman is emerging as probably the best 3rd baseman in the majors, Evan Longoria being the only competition. He is a very good hitter, and a flawless fielder. If Tulowitzki keeps up what he has been doing, he could replace Hanley Ramirez as the best shortstop in baseball. And finally, you must notice that name in the 5th spot. Andres Torres. No, this is not a homer pick. Torres' numbers make him a legit name on an MVP ballot. He was more important than anyone this year for the Giants success. We look forward to seeing him and Giants play tomorrow against the Braves.

AL MVP Winner: Josh Hamilton
2nd: Robinson Cano
3rd: Miguel Cabrera
4th: Evan Longoria
5th: Jose Bautista

Hamilton's case for MVP is very similar to Joe Mauer's in 2009. They both missed an entire month of the season, yet still were the most productive players in the league. The other names on the list could have easily won an MVP in other years. While I believe Bautista's season is something of a fluke, there's no denying the actual production. It speaks for itself. Evan Longoria is the Ryan Zimmerman of the AL. Terrific defense at 3rd, very good offense. Miguel Cabrera could be the best hitter of this generation to never quite be the best hitter. You know what I mean? I know what I mean.

NL Rookie of the Year Winner: Buster Posey
2nd: Jason Heyward
3rd: Jaime Garcia
4th: Mike Stanton
5th Gaby Sanchez

Yes. Posey over Heyward. It had to happen. I'm a Giants fan. I can't help but forgive Posey the 2 month difference. Heyward has a full 1 win advantage over Posey in WAR. I don't care. After all, Cliff Lee has a .7 advantage over Hernandez in pitcher WAR, and no one has a problem voting for Hernandez. As Joe Posnanski said recently, WAR is a conversation starter, not closer.

The NLDS Roster

Update: Rowand will be on the roster. It's looking like Zito will not. I think that's a mistake.

Every other Giants blog has done or will do a postseason roster post, but it's pretty much an obligation and we seem to have some different opinions than everybody else anyway. As you probably know, postseason rosters are set at 25 players, so the Giants have a few tough decisions to make regarding who they want to keep and who they want to leave off the postseason roster. I'm going to break down how I think the roster should be formed, starting with the pitchers.

Pitchers

Bochy has stated that he's likely to carry an 11 man staff, and there are a few guys who are locks to be on the roster. Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Bumgarner are all guarantees. The first three are pretty obvious choices and Bumgarner has pitched too well to be left off the roster. Bochy said today that if a 4th starter is used, it will be Bumgarner.

That leaves 7 guys for the bullpen. The combination of Casilla, Lopez, Ramirez, Romo, and Wilson in the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th innings worked extremely well late in the year, so they are all locks. That means there are 2 spots available for 5 guys: Barry Zito, Jeremy Affeldt, Dan Runzler, Chris Ray and Guillermo Mota. I would say Ray and Runzler do not make the cut, as Ray is pretty mediocre and Runzler can struggle with control. Jeremy Affeldt probably makes it because the Giants could use another lefty.

The last roster spot is where we seem to disagree with most people. Between Guillermo Mota and Barry Zito, I'm going with Zito. Ever since his terrible start in the final series against the Padres, the Leave Barry Zito Off the Postseason Roster Movement has gained a ton of momentum and I don't get it. I've heard he takes too long to warm up or he doesn't have bullpen experience or the Giants don't need another lefty or he just isn't good enough. Let me start by saying that pitchers are pitchers. Guys are usually put in the bullpen because they don't have enough pitches or control to be in the starting rotation. You don't often hear that a starting pitcher doesn't have what it takes to be a reliever. If he really needs a ton of time to warm up, so what? If he needs to long toss before games, let him long toss. Zito is not supposed to be a lefty specialist out of the pen. His value comes from being able to give the team innings when they need them. The rotation has been spectacular, but disaster starts happen. Having Zito come in to pitch a few innings at a time when needed would keep the bullpen fresh and be extremely valuable. I know Giants fans have a short-term memory and when they needed a good Barry Zito start at a crucial time, he failed. And when it was needed the most, Guillermo Mota gave the Giants 2-3 great innings out of the bullpen. But I can't be convinced that Zito isn't one of the best 11 pitchers on the roster and that the Giants don't need a long man. His numbers this year(4.15 ERA, 1.344 WHIP) aren't even terrible. Barry Zito should be on the NLDS roster.

Hitters

With 11 pitchers, the Giants will carry 14 position players. Certain guys like Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Posey, Burrell, Ross, Uribe, and Sandoval will absolutely be on the roster. I figure Schierholtz, Fontenot, and Whiteside are pretty sure bets for the bench because of their defensive value.

That means Guillen, Rowand, Renteria, and Ishikawa will fight for the last 3 spots. Just yesterday, Andrew Baggarly proposed leaving Jose Guillen off the roster entirely, which seemed ridiculous to me at the time, but isn't all that crazy. Guillen has been struggling immensely for a couple of weeks now and it's time for Cody Ross to be in the starting lineup. What it comes down to for me is Guillen vs. Rowand. Rowand does provide some defensive value, but very little offensive value. Guillen provides negative defensive value and while he hasn't been providing any offensive value lately, when he's right, he's a much more dangerous threat on offense than Rowand. Despite his recent struggles, I have to go with Guillen. Rowand's defensive value is a big deal but in a pinch-hit situation, I'll take Guillen. However, I might have a hard time arguing with you if you pick Rowand.

Renteria will probably make the cut just because he's the only true shortstop on the team. That means the final spot goes to Rowand or Ishikawa. To me, this is basically a draw. Like I said, Rowand does provide some defensive value in the outfield and Ishikawa would even out the bench with 3 RH and 3 LH, while also providing defensive value at 1st base. My gut tells me Ishikawa, but I'm not really sure why. A good case could be made for either player.

Final Roster:

Starting Lineup

Torres

Sanchez

Huff

Posey

Burrell

Uribe

Sandoval

Ross

Bench

Guillen

Schierholtz

Fontenot

Whiteside

Renteria

Ishikawa

Starting Rotation

Lincecum

Cain

Sanchez

Bumgarner

Bullpen

Zito

Affeldt

Casilla

Lopez

Ramirez

Romo

Wilson

SF 3, SD 0: NL West Champs

It is done. The Giants, in the 162nd game of the year, have won the National League West division and are on their way to the playoffs. Seven years of misery and torture are finally over!

In many ways, I feel like this is a hard recap to write because I'm so uncontrollably excited, I don't really know what to say. We all figured that going into this weekend, needing just 1 game to go the playoffs, there was no way it wouldn't happen. But on Friday in game 1 of the series, we saw our best pitcher this year struggle while our offense could only score when it was too late. On Saturday, the much maligned Barry Zito was terrible, not even lasting 4 innings in his most important start of the year. But on Sunday, Jonathan Sanchez got it done and he was magnificent. Yes, this game was a classic Giants game: great pitching and just enough offense. It's fitting that the Giants would make us go through the torture til the very end.

Jonathan Sanchez's great start was huge and he more than likely pitched himself into the playoff rotation today. We don't know if the Giants are going to go with a 3 or 4 man rotation in the first round, but I don't think it matters. Up until yesterday's game, I thought the 3-man rotation would be Lincecum-Cain-Zito and the 4th starter would be a toss up between Sanchez and Bumgarner. But after seeing Sanchez come in and completely shut down the Padres' momentum today, he is the Giants' 3rd starter. Today he pitched 5 innings, allowing 3 H, 5 BB and striking out 5. Most importantly, he didn't allow a run. And we can't talk about the pitching without talking about the bullpen. That combination of Casilla, Ramirez, Lopez, Romo, and Wilson is pretty damn solid. It's going to be a huge weapon in the postseason.

Sanchez helped his own cause in the 3rd with a stand-up triple off of Mat Latos. Two batters later, Freddy Sanchez hit a groundball up the middle, scoring Sanchez. Immediately afterwards, Aubrey Huff drove a ball into the left-center gap, scoring the other Sanchez. It was a pretty big deal that the Giants finally scored first because it relieved some of the pressure. Figures that it took our pitcher to finally get something going. Buster Posey added an insurance run on a solo homer in the 8th, and everything else was taken care of.

Like I said, I don't feel like I can completely capture the greatness of the game. So I suggest that you go watch the game again, look at the celebration pictures, and watch Brian Wilson strike out Will Venable to end the game. Watching the swing and miss and seeing the whole team hop out of the dugout while Buster Posey runs to the mound to congratulate Brian Wilson should give you chills. It's amazing and hopefully it only gets better.

There are still plenty of questions that remain. Who is the 4th starter? What is the 25-man playoff roster going to look like? I'm sure we'll have a couple posts in the next few days addressing those issues. Just enjoy this feeling for the next 3 days. Game 1 is on TBS at 6:37 PM on Thursday. I already can't wait.

Oh, and Mat Latos is now on the Hate List. Haha.

SD 4, SF 2: So It Goes...To Sunday

The Giants had their 2nd chance to clinch the NL West today, and they failed to do so. They must win tomorrow to avoid a 1 game playoff against the Padres in San Diego on Monday. I would have loved for the Giants to win today, but now that they have lost, it's just as well that they wait till tomorrow, when Kruk and Kuip will be calling the game. Because as bad as this game was, (and we will certainly get into how bad it was) the real loser today was FOX's MLB coverage. Just a few words on it, if you please.

FOX was already getting killed last night and this morning for forcing a majority of their national viewers to watch the meaningless Red Sox/Yankees game. I'm sure a vast majority of baseball fans would rather see either game today that had playoff implications. But that's only the beginning of how clueless they are over at FOX. I mean, the announcers are bad enough, but then again, most announcers for any company are terrible, so that can't really be avoided. Still, the David Eckstein love that was being thrust upon us today sounded so foolish and out of place, you'd have thought it was parody. So while we had to deal with a very subpar boradcasting team during this pivotal game, at least there were laughs to be had. What was not a laughing matter was what started happening in the middle innings. It's what made today's game possibly the worst viewing experience I've ever had watching a baseball game on tv. 3 times, between, say, the 5th and 8th inning, FOX inexplicably cut away from the Giants game to a split screen situation, where the Atlanta/Philadelphia game was prominently featured, along with Dick Stockton's voice, while the Giants/Padres were shoved into a little corner and told to be quiet for 5 minutes. I've never seen anything like it. One minute I'm watching my team play, and the next I'm getting up to stand right in front of the tv so I might be able to see what's going on. The worst was when the Giants were coming up to bat in the bottom of the 8th, trailing by 3, and FOX decided it was the perfect time to show the top of the 7th inning in Atlanta. Now, I understand that game in Atlanta is important, but the one between the Giants and Padres is arguably MORE important, and if FOX is going to force us local viewers of a team to watch their awful broadcast of our game, at least LET US FUCKING WATCH IT! Okay, that's all. Now to the awful game itself.

It was a terrible game for Barry Zito from the start. He walked in 2 runners in the 1st, and barely got out of the inning without more damage being done. He allowed 1 more run in the 3rd inning, and had given up 5 hits to that point. When he walked the pitcher to start the 4th inning, Bochy wasted no time taking him out. And it was the right choice. The runner he walked scored, but the bullpen shut the Padres down for the rest of the game. One of Zito's runs went unearned because of a terrible play by Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval, someone who clearly loves playing the game and is a great force for positivity and energy in the clubhouse, seems to always try to do too much in pressure situations, and in this case he turned a great play into a terrible one, stopping a line drive from going into left field, but then rushing his throw to 2nd base. It was way off the bag, and a run scored.

Barry Zito did not help his situation with the San Francisco fans today. Of course, it isn't his fault that he is being paid so much money. But that DOES always factor into the feeling that surrounds him. And while he has been vastly overpaid these 4 years, he at least has been able to pitch, and pitch at an average to slightly below average level. But games like this hurt. When he has to leave in the 4th inning because he walked the pitcher, criticism becomes more than justified. Matt Cain pitched a bad game last night, but he also nearly no hit the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field last Sunday. Zito has yet to do something like that in his Giants career. Today, he faced a terrible offensive team, at home, and he failed completely. It could have cost him his place in the postseason rotation, if that is something that even exists next week. Zito, pitching only 3 innings today, will finish the season with 199 IP, falling short of 200 once again. He has yet to pitch 200 innings for the Giants, and it has nothing to do with injuries. Zito has been completely healthy. He just hasn't pitched well enough to stay in games long enough to get to that mark.

While Zito pitched badly, the bullpen was able to hold the Padres afterward, but it didn't matter, because the Giants offense was terrible until the very end of the game. Before Juan Uribe's solo HR in the 7th inning, their sole hit was an infield grounder that Mike Fontenot beat out. Tim Stauffer had their number. If we wanna be positive, there is the issue that San Diego could be facing a very tired bullpen. Both of these games could have been blowouts, and instead Bud Black had to use all his favorite relievers. Mike Adams the set up man has been used in 5 straight games now, Bell the closer in 4. And Bell looked tired in the 9th inning, when he managed to get Jose Guillen to ground into a double play (!!!!!) to end the game with the tying run on 1st base.

Obviously Black will use Bell and the others like Dusty used Robb Nen in 2002, working them to the end. And it would be the right decision. But it's very possible that this could hurt San Diego tomorrow or on Monday, god forbid there is a game on Monday. Anyway, I look forward to tomorrow's game wholeheartedly. I just don't see how this team gets swept at home on the final weekend of the season. It can't happen, right? And if it does, there's always Lincecum on Monday. And don't forget, if Atlanta loses tomorrow, the Giants and Padres are in no matter what. But we want the division. So fuck that. Let's win tomorrow!