FJM Friday: The Molina Theory

Before diving into this week's Fire Joe Morgan Friday post, I want to make it clear that we here at 8thInningWeirdness like Andrew Baggarly. He's a good beat writer, and I even had the pleasure of having him over for dinner and wine last summer. I enjoyed it greatly, especially when I realized the common interest we have for rare coins and recreational dry cleaning. But I can't try to ruin Bruce Jenkins' career every week; it's far too easy. This week Baggarly wrote a small piece on MercuryNews.com about the possible influence Bengie Molina's absence has had on Tim Lincecum. I think this theory is ludicrous and unfair to Buster Posey. So, with respect and as few sarcastic remarks as possible, here is my relatively short response to Baggs' article from Wednesday.

Among the many well-meaning amateur theories to explain Tim Lincecum's struggles this season, one appears to have some statistical merit.

Statistical merit? I like it. Hopefully statistical merit means more than just listing overall ERAs and W-L records. Didn't I promise I wouldn't be sarcastic?

Does Tim Lincecum miss throwing to Bengie Molina?

Maybe. But if he's really letting it get to him, then he's much less of a player than we thought. I don't think he's letting it get into his head. I just think he's going through a rough stretch. As all great pitcher do. In 1989, Roger Clemens had a 3.13 ERA and 1.216 WHIP. That season was after 3 great years for Clemens, 2 in which he won Cy Youngs. Clemens' age in 1989? 26, the same as Lincecum this year. After 1989, Clemens went on to post a 2.34 ERA in his next 3 seasons, winning another Cy Young and finishing 2nd and 3rd.

(Lincecum) was at 8-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 16 starts with Molina...Lincecum is 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 3 pairings with backup Eli Whiteside. In his past 7 starts with rookie Buster Posey, Lincecum is 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA.

I'll ignore your use of wins and losses, as if those were statistics with any meaning behind them. The use of ERA is okay, and tells us something to an extent. But it ignores the timeline of Tim Lincecum's season so far. Lincecum was great from Opening Day to the middle of May. Everyone who has watched the Giants this year would agree that his dropoff began May 15th, the 1st of 4 straight starts in which he walked 5 batters. He looked as lost as ever back in May as he does currently. The catcher in all of those starts? Bengie Molina.

Bengie Molina can't be the key to Tim's success as a pitcher, and at the same time be the catcher during his worst stretch of the season. It also just isn't fair to Buster Posey. 16 starts against 7 starts? Big sample difference. I won't even mention the offensive upgrade Posey brings every time Lincecum is pitching. Oh wait, I just did.

Lincecum didn't completely reject the effect the catching change has had on him, but he made it clear it wasn't an overriding factor.

Then I really just don't see the point of this article.

Lincecum: "I've had good games with Bengie and bad games with Bengie. I've had good games with Buster and bad games with Buster. I'll get used to throwing to Buster. It's been totally fine for me, working with him.

Sorry Baggs, but the Bengie Molina Theory is as amateur as any other, and I'm afraid it doesn't have much statistical merit.

Why the Giants Stuck With Molina for So Long

With what is hopefully a monthly occurrence on this blog, we at 8thInningWeirdness present to you the first ever 8thInningWeirdness Comic Strip! The writing is done by me and Reza and the illustrations are created by the great artist/HTMLer and loyal Giants fan, Niki. This first strip explains why the Giants stuck with Bengie Molina for so long, despite his struggles. Please understand that everything depicted in this comic strip is fiction and not meant to be taken seriously. Enjoy!

Bengie Molina Traded to the Texas Rangers

UPDATE: Wow. Turns out the PTBNL is Michael Main, the 24th overall pick in the 2007 draft. Now, Main did have a terrible 2009 in Single-A, going 4-6 with a 6.49 ERA, but he has rebounded this year to post an ERA of 3.45 and 7.1 K/9. His 2009 year was supposedly affected by a bout with a viral infection. Main has a ton of potential, can reach the mid-90s with his fastball, has a potentially plus curve, and is still just 21 years old. He was a first round pick for a reason, so obviously he has some upside. He's a no risk, high reward player. I can't believe Sabean got both Main and Ray for Molina. I can't believe what I'm about to say, but good job Brian Sabean.

Bengie Molina has been traded to the Texas Rangers for RHP Chris Ray and a player to be named later, as first reported by Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com. The Giants will also reportedly send about $2 million in cash to the Rangers.

First of all, Bengie Molina was a good Giant. He deserves credit for catching one of the best pitching staffs in the major leagues and a two-time Cy Young award winner and he was always an important veteran presence in the clubhouse. While he was never a great average hitter and had mostly below average OBPs, in 2007 and 2009 he hit 19 and 20 home runs, respectively, as the Giants cleanup hitter. He should've never been the cleanup hitter, but that isn't his fault. That being said, it was absolutely time for Molina to go. His line of .257/.312/.332 with an OPS of .644 just wasn't good enough to justify him being in the lineup. There's also the fact that a young catching prospect by the name of Buster Posey needed to be catching everyday. With Bengie gone, Buster will move to catcher, Uribe will slide over to third and Renteria will be manning shortstop on most days. The bottom line is that now the Giants will be putting their best players out on the field.

This deal is pretty surprising because I assumed the Giants weren't going to get much at all for Molina, but they ended up with two players. Chris Ray is a reliever with a fastball that runs up to 94-95 mph and a slider and splitter. His best year came in 2006 when he was the closer for the Baltimore Orioles. He had 33 saves, a 2.73 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.09. He missed the entire 2008 season recovering from Tommy John Surgery and came back to have a horrible year in 2009 when he had 7.27 ERA and a 2.01 WHIP!! However, he's recovered nicely this year, posting an ERA of 3.41, and should be a good addition to the bullpen. Don't expect the PTBNL to be anyone significant, but the fact that the Giants were able to get relief help and another player for one of the worst hitters in the lineup has to make Giants fans happy.

Even though Molina's season has been a struggle, you've got to appreciate his contributions to the Giants.