Showing posts with label Free Agency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free Agency. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Giants Free Agent Profile: Aubrey Huff


When I think of the 2010 World Champion Giants, I think of Aubrey Huff. In his first season with the team, Huff always felt like the leader, the man in the center. After all, he hit 3rd most of the season. He led the team in most offensive categories. On a team that had mostly hackers, Huff and Torres (and later Burrell) added an element of patience at the plate that hasn't existed in the SF lineup since, well, maybe since Barry Bonds left. He was on fire most of the first half, dropped off slightly in the 2nd, but was still good, and had some big hits in the postseason, notably his HR in Game 4 of the World Series. Now the Giants have to decide whether Huff is worth bringing back, because he is likely to get some attractive offers from other teams.

Huff had by far his best season as a major leaguer in 2010. Huff came up to the majors in 2000, and from 2002-2004, he was consistently good offensively for Tampa Bay, but his value was hurt by poor defense. He then had a down year in 2005, was traded midseason in 2006 to Houston, and had a mediocre season for Baltimore in 2007. Huff then had a great season for the Orioles in 2008, with a .387 wOBA. After a terrific 2008, and going into a walk year in 2009, Huff was suddenly horrible. A lifetime .287 hitter at the time, his average dropped to .241. His walk and strikeout numbers stayed about the same, but for the first time since 2001 he slugged below .400 (his career slugging at that point was .483, a hundred points higher than his 2009 slugging). It was a disaster for Huff, and it looked like 2008 had been a fluke. After all, he had been going downhill since 2004, and maybe he finally reached the bottom. Then he ended up with the Giants, had a remarkable 2010 season, and now we are left to wonder if 2009 was the fluke year.

Looking at his 2010 stats, one thing clearly stands out: Huff was more patient than he's ever been. His career high 12.4% walk rate led to a career high .385 OBP, and that mixed with a few other things gave him his career highs in wOBA (.385) and WAR (5.7). In his seasons in Tampa, Huff got on base at an above average rate, but it wasn't anything spectacular (.360-.370). Huff's slugging in 2010 slightly exceeded his career average, but it wasn't as high as some of the power numbers he put up earlier in the decade.

Is it really possible that a 33 year old veteran was able to suddenly become a more patient, better hitter out of nowhere? It certainly isn't normal, especially on the heels of such a massive the previous year. But another part of Huff's 2010 season is even less normal, and that was his very competent defense. Huff was bad defensively pretty much his whole career. This year, he was asked to play 1st base, left field, and right field, and played them all without hurting the team. Interestingly, Huff's buddy Pat Burrell also had a fine defensive year, while holding a reputation as a poor fielder. I don't know whether we can expect either to have as a good a season next year in that department. Should Huff return to the Giants, there is a question of where he would play. His best position is 1st base, but the Giants do have to keep Brandon Belt in mind for 2011, even if he starts in AAA. Huff showed in 2010 that he can move around, but it's not ideal at all to have him in right field if the Giants can help it. Either way, if the Giants want Belt to possibly play first base, the outfield corner spots would have to be flexible for Huff to move there.

I think it's clear the Giants would like to bring Huff back, and that he would like to come back. But Huff would also like to cash in on his career year, and there's a certain limit that the Giants will have to set on what they'll give him. I think more important than the actual money is the length of the contract. It simply can't be more than 2 years. You don't want to make that kind of commitment to an older player who has had years of failure in the past, especially when you have a young player who looks about ready to take over his primary position. But it would make no sense for Huff to agree to just a 1 year deal. We can only hope that Huff's desire to stay with the club that brought him so much joy this year will be able to sway him just enough towards taking a little less. But if a noticeably better offer is on the table, the player, quite fairly, almost always takes it. I worry that tempting contract will be on the table. But if it is, the Giants would do very well to say no, and not match it.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Giants Free Agent Profile: Juan Uribe

Juan Uribe is so easy to love. The huge home runs. The jazz hands. The voice that can barely be understood. But now he's a free agent and it's entirely possible that we won't see the postseason hero in a Giants uniform again.

When thinking about Uribe as a free agent, my first thought was that I'd love to have him back...as a utility infielder. For the last 2 years, the Giants have signed him to be a utility guy, but he's mostly been a starter because of injuries to guys like Edgar Renteria and Freddy Sanchez and ineffectiveness from Pablo Sandoval. He's a good option off the bench because he can play 3B, SS, and 2B and plays them well defensively. But mostly I didn't feel like he should be a starter because his offensive numbers seemed a little underwhelming. Uribe will always be a guy who can hit a ball really, really far but he's kind of an all or nothing guy. He doesn't hit for high average and doesn't walk very much, so his on-base percentage (OBP) is always pretty low. In fact, his OBP of .329 (which isn't very good) in 2009 was the highest of his career. His plate discipline is terrible (he had a pretty bad O-Swing % of 36% this year) and he strikes out a lot.

It should also be noted that Uribe's 2009 was, in many respects, better than his 2010. Sure his HRs and RBIs went way up, but the things that matter like OBP, SLG, OPS, and wOBA all went down in 2010. He had 150 fewer plate appearances in 2009, but still his numbers were better across the board. Coming off of that 2009 year, all he got was a 1 year/$3.25 million dollar deal. Now after a worse year, he's likely to get, at the minimum, a 2 year/$12 million deal. Because of a weak free agent shortstop class and improved home run numbers, the Giants or any other team may be overpaying a player who may already be declining.

But a quick look at 2010 major league shortstops makes me wonder if Uribe is the Giants' best option. Basically, there aren't very many good ones and Juan Uribe was probably one of the top 6 or 7 shortstops in all of baseball in 2010. He was certainly better than any other shortstop available now. The only guy who I'd rather have that might be available is Stephen Drew, and that probably won't happen. Also, there is no one in the minors who is close to being able to contribute except maybe Brandon Crawford, who has a long way to go offensively. Uribe is probably the best option the Giants have unless they can swing a deal for Drew.

The Giants are, like many teams, the victims of a weak shortstop market. Good shortstops are hard to come by and as a guy who has a lot of power and is good defensively, Uribe is an okay option at the bottom of the order. He's just not great, and the Giants should be looking to upgrade offensively at any position they can. But if there are no upgrades, I think I've made myself okay with giving him a 2 year/$12 million deal, but I'd be hesitant to go any higher than that. So there are still many questions. Can he get more than $6 million per year from another team? It wouldn't surprise me. Could he get more than 2 years from another team? Again, it wouldn't surprise me. But as time goes by it's looking the Giants may NEED Juan Uribe. Or else...Stephen Drew? Oh baby. Or more likely, Orlando Cabrera? Alex Gonzalez? Mike Fontenot? Edgar Renteria? Brandon Crawford? Yikes.

As always, your thoughts and comments are welcome and appreciated.