Late Season Preview

*I had to post this under my name, but it was written by guest contributor Michael Smith. Follow him on twitter: @brocean.

Truth be told, this post was supposed to go up last week, day before the Giants played their first game. However, responsibilities and the like got in the way (financing a car #nct.) and I just never got around to it during my "free time". Don't treat this as a season preview but more of a talking points collection to be able to look back with high hopes at either the All-Star break or with sorrow and acceptance as the September stretch nears and the Giants are hanging on by a thread.

2011 offseason in review:

- Pitching depth! Pitching depth? Jonathan Sanchez is gone. Thank GOD! That idiot asshole was one of the worst pitchers in the league, etc etc etc. Selling low, injury, walks like 5 per 9 innings. Well, maybe not. It's not crazy to see him post a league average ERA with 160-180 IP. Sure, you'll pull your hair out, but I'd also sleep slightly easier at night with him in the rotation than three question marks: Vogelsong, Zito and Surkamp. (more on this matter later on in the post, where I’m actually optimistic on Melky Cabrera)

With new regime leader Larry Baer and the introduction of a self-imposed budget restraint (even though the team is still rolling in cash), I was already bracing for a frugal approach to the offseason. Which I wouldn't necessarily mind. You never want to lock up your wrists in the later years, just to WIN NOW at the expense of possibly being unable to buy out your young arbitration-eligible players' looming raises.

When Carlos Beltran's deal with the St. Louis Cardinals details surfaced to be a $12.5M average annual value over two years, I was sure that would be the one and only real mistake the Giants made. The trade was already hard to swallow in losing Zack Wheeler, now made impossible to contain when you see that you don't even get another year or two of Carlos Beltran. To make matters worse, the price tag was near nothing for a hitter of his caliber. What could have been: Pagan-Posey-Pablo-Beltran-Belt. A potent 1-5.

I even let them have "let's keep two of the same player" mistake when Affeldt and Javier Lopez were retained. You get one mulligan, Giants! Just this one. But in late January, the Giants outdid themselves by watching the Rockies (Hi, division rivals) acquire Marco Scutaro via trade for a replaceable arm in Clayton Mortensen. Colorado acquired him to be a second baseman, but truthfully, he can still take it at shortstop. And with his hitting ability and the scarcity of the middle infield positions, he even becomes a plus-player there.

Coco Crisp walked back to Oakland with a 2 year deal for $14M, something I was okay with considering the Giants acquired Angel Pagan and center fielder by default Melky Cabrera. That and I would not have been thrilled with that acquisition.

Mike Fontenot was cut because of his handed-ness. Let's be honest with ourselves on the matter. Just another instance of left-handers being exonerated from baseball. But really, he was the more useful "2B"/utility infielder of the choices between him, Emmanuel Burriss, and Ryan Theriot. However, the team is already too left-handed (in their own estimation) to carry another left-handed player. What their thought process lacks though, is that some of those LHB position players include: Brandon Crawford and Aubrey Huff. Some reaction I’ve seen is “If that’s a big problem for the team, then they were already shit out of luck”. Let’s be honest: the middle of the field positions are as vital as having your “mashers” in the corners or your 1-2 punch in the rotation. A revolving door of Crawford/Theriot/Burriss doesn’t give me much to look forward to. To make matters worse (fine, more alarming): eventually one will even play 3rd when Sandoval sits. Theriot’s lollypop arm or Burriss’ mental mistakes. Pick your poison.

At least the Giants did well in extending Matt Cain at what is a fair deal when you realize they are paying for his age 27 to age 32 seasons. The money isn't as great a deal when you stop to think about just how much more he could have gotten in a starving free-agent market. That's a more certain deal than paying for Tim Lincecum's age 29 to (possibly) age 34/5/6? seasons at a higher annual average value when that time comes.

I would be okay with the Giants putting their hands up and slowly walking away from signing that big Lincecum deal two years from now. As long as part of that money goes to locking up Madison Bumgarner's arbitration-years from being raised. And of course, development.

Things I'm rooting for this season:

- Melky Cabrera to make me eat crow, all of it. (Hi, Troy)
I didn't like the deal at all when it occurred. Trading away a still 4th-starter-caliber pitcher for a "center fielder" whose season seemed inflated was risky. I want Melky to be a more-than-league-average CF, and not turn back into a pumpkin whose ceiling is that of a 4th outfielder. Please let this be the start of your prime. Because up until his questionable season last year, he had an 85 OPS+ (say, is that like a post-Philadelphia Aaron Rowand line?)

- Angel Pagan to do well.
If only to shush Spring Training statistics thumpers. That, and he's interesting. I too, caught on to his act in 2009/2010 as he "broke out" by being given a chance on a Mets team that needed warm bodies in the outfield. As I recognize his year-to-year decline, I'd also like to take a chance on him still posting around a 95 OPS+ while holding down center field with decent enough defense to be a difference maker. The decline I speak of (in OPS+, from 2009-2011) is 122 to 108 to 93. Also, bon voyage, Andres Torres.

- Emmanuel Burriss to ... not succeed (please don't hate me?)
(See above re: Spring Training statistics)

- Aubrey Huff to also not do well, or at least "not well" enough for the front office to really hand the job to Brandon Belt (Some of you might really hate me for this one)
Last year, the day before he hit 3 home runs in a game, I publicly went against Aubrey Huff. I even got kudos from some people who condemned me for saying something I had bottled up, then. I have never been a fan of the player, and when he did well in 2010, I had to accept it and root for him because hey flags fly forever. But now, if he performs even materialistically "decent", Brandon Belt will be blocked even further from being a starter provided he doesn't get off to the hottest of starts. Difference in 2010: no young player being blocked. I mean, as much as Bowkermania ran wild back then (RIP), he was still a 26-year-old player. Belt is 23 and more promise than John Bowker had shown at that point, or ever. I don't think Huff is as bad an outfielder as 2011 showed in those two weeks. However, there's something to be said about the ~adequate corner outfield adventures in 2010 and that he's two years older since he was that grade of an outfielder.

- Barry Zito to do well, or at least well enough for his repertoire (170 IP, 105 ERA+)
The timing of this post seems a bit opportunistic what with his unicorn ascension (fuck a phoenix) in Denver. But ultimately, this is to stop the dog-piling on a player who hasn't put up a fuss about his situation. And someone I've rooted for at least 10 years now. Those, and if he doesn't succeed, you would really be trimming your candle wicks and biting your lower lip after every Eric Surkamp outing in the minors. Do you have faith in Surkamp working good off-speed pitches with a below-average fastball in the Majors? I don’t, not really. Do you feel confident in Zito being a league-average pitcher, still? I do, but I’m also his biggest apologist. Also, if you didn’t trust Surkamp, how would you trust Zito…? Not only that, but Vogelsong is very much no sure thing. I've even trimmed a blurb on him because this post has already gone on long enough.

Thing I've come to terms with, begrudgingly:
Freddy Sanchez and his availability this season. Can he put together even 100 games for 2012 at this rate? I hope. But his projected batting lines don't really have that great a difference from him and Ryan Theriot. And another year older, whose defense prowess depends so much on lateral movement to balls in play.

No prediction for how they'll do this year. Just hope that everything really does break right for this team.

Facts and Statisticinos About Tomorrow's Starting Pitcher

Check this out, loyal readers. Madison Bumgarner turned 22 this August, meaning his official age for the 2011 season is 21 (he was 21 on June 30, the halfway point of the season). He is having an historically great season for a pitcher his age, especially in the DIPS department. He's in his first full season, and he already has better command of the strike zone than his teammates Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum right now. Lincecum and Cain already had the "stuff" when they arrived in the majors; they had to add some quality pitches and "learn how to pitch" to become the aces they've been for several years. Bumgarner has a certain amount of "stuff"; he also seems to already have a great idea of "how to pitch". His K/BB ratio is 3rd best all time for a pitcher his age in a single season, and his placement barely changes if you use age 22 as the qualifier instead. Notice that the closest pitcher in recent memory is Brett Anderson, and he's not even that close. The only recent pitchers with K/BB over 3.00 on that list are Anderson and King Felix. Madison Bumgarner right now is doing something pretty unique. Imagine what kind of pitcher he could be in 2 or 3 years. Should we expect a development in either his stuff or his overall pitching ability?

Perhaps not. Every pitcher develops differently, and Bumgarner now could be close to the finished product. Maybe he never has another 2.60 FIP season. He could still be an excellent pitcher. Perhaps the improvement occurs in his ability to prevent weak contact. His .330 BABIP is very high and a product of bad luck and poor defense, but maybe part of it is attributable to his skill or approach. There could be a regression in his home run prevention, or even his strikeouts and walks.

But is that what we should expect? No. It's only fair and normal to think that he will get better in some respect. Which is exciting. And scary.

Much Better: Hall DFA'd, Burriss Sent Down

Okay, Pat Burrell was not released. Bill Hall was. And Brandon Belt was not sent to AAA. Emmanuel Burriss was. This is good news, because these moves are exactly what the Giants should have done. But that blatant error on the part of CSN made me write a rant post that now looks kind of dumb.

You can still read it here if you like.

A lot of it still applies. There's stuff about Beltran, and while Belt hasn't been sent down, we heard today that the Giants envision him in a role similar to that of Travis Ishikawa last season. In other words, Brandon Belt will mostly be a pinch hitter/defensive replacement. And Huff is still starting. Which is terrible. So that rant still applies. Also, ALEX HINSHAW?

I don't know about you but I haven't been this excited for a game since Opening Day. I'll say Carlos Beltran goes 2-for-4 with 2 singles and 9 RBIs. Oh and he'll also make the pitcher balk. That talented.

Too Much to Handle

What a freakin' rollercoaster. I don't like rollercoasters. They make me throw up. I can't know this because I've never been on a rollercoaster, but I'd like to think I'd throw up if I ever got on one. That's how I avoid them. And recent events are confirming my worries.

Let's start at the beginning.

The Giants acquired Carlos Beltran. You know that. What you may not know is how it all went down. The Giants traded Gary Brown. Damnit, I thought they could get him without giving up a top prospect. Wait, they're giving up Zack Wheeler. No! Wheeler's even better. They're trading Wheeler and Brown. YOU HAVE GOT TO BE FUCKING SHITTING ME. Oops, they're just giving up Wheeler. Okay...I hate whoever put that rumor out there. It's very possible that the Giants are giving up Wheeler, Eric Surkamp, and Francisco Peguero for Beltran. Dead. Wait, the Giants may be getting more than just Beltran. OMG REYES?! Shutup, that isn't happening. In the end, they gave up top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler in the deal, a fairly steep price to pay, and a price I wasn't willing to pay up until today. But I trust the Giants in evaluating pitching prospects and the thought of Beltran in the lineup is jus too exciting, so I'm okay with the deal.

That's not to say this isn't a huge risk. Beltran has a pretty significant injury history and is likely a two month rental. If the Giants don't win the World Series or if Beltran gets injured and Wheeler goes on to be a star, yikes. But I've decided it's a risk worth taking. Okay.

It get's announced that Beltran will play RF, with a Schierholtz/Ross platoon in LF. Small quibble, but Schierholtz is a very good right fielder, not to mention the skill it takes to play that position at AT&T park. And why is Schierholtz getting platooned? It doesn't really make sense to give one of your better players LESS playing time, but that will be a common theme later in this post.

Matt Cain is Matt Cain. Getting shit done.

Now there's the business of clearing a 40-man and 25-man roster spot for Beltran, who will be arriving and starting tomorrow. What's this? Brandon Belt is optioned down to AAA AGAIN and Pat Burrell is released to make room on the 40-man roster. Whoa.

At first glance, the real baffling move is to send Brandon Belt back to AAA. The Giants have one of the worst players in baseball this year playing Belt's position right now. There's that whole not playing your best players theme already. And it's not like they can blame this demotion on Belt's struggles at the plate, which was at least a somewhat legitimate excuse after his first demotion. Belt has barely played, but when he has, he's hit pretty well (no hits against Clayton Kershaw, one of the best lefties in the game, so who cares). And, wait a minute, Emmanuel Burriss is still on the Major League roster? That guy as an OPS+ of 41. But he's FAST!! Give me a break. The Giants don't really need him for depth - Keppinger, Fontenot, and Crawford all play SS. The case can even be made that Crawford should be sent down before Belt. For all of his great defense, he can't hit, and isn't going to get much playing time going forward.

But the decision to release Burrell might be more mind-numbingly dumb. It wasn't necessarily that surprising because Aaron Rowand is owed too much money to be cut, of course. But Pat Burrell had the 3rd best OPS on the team this season. He really can still hit. The worst part is that he did NOT need to be released to make room on the 40-man roster. Steve Edlefsen. Clayton Tanner. Alex Hinshaw (What the hell is this love affair with Hinshaw, who is AWFUL?). Bill Hall. These guys are all not very good. Why keep them? It's so un-sabermetric, but clubhouse chemistry is very important and we have every reason to believe that Pat Burrell was a big part of that. I'd love to think a team won't grab him or maybe he can retire and stay around the team. But as I pointed out, he's too good, and a smart team will pick him up.

UPDATE: CSN, who reported this news, has failed. Pat Burrell is not eligible to come off the DL and can't be released yet. Still, the point stands and I wouldn't be surprised if he's released soon.

UPDATE #2: Holy hell, Brandon Belt isn't being sent down and this post is mostly worthless. What the hell happened at CSN today?

I don't know. I haven't processed everything. There's an argument to made that the biggest upgrade this team could make was replacing Huff with Belt, and that isn't happening. And a good player and great clubhouse presence is being dumped in favor of much worse players. I love having Beltran on this team, but the Giants are doing their best to screw it up.

CIN 10, SF 2: Lincecum Cold Streak Continues

That's now 3 iffy starts in a row for Tim Lincecum and today's was the worst. After striking out the first batter of the game, he struck out no more, walked 4, and gave up 7 earned runs in 4 innings. And just 36 of his 73 pitches were strikes. Yikes. Many, including the brilliant FOX broadcasters, are speculating that Lincecum's complete game, 133 pitch outing against the A's is the reason for the recent struggles. But I don't buy that one start is gonna mess with Lincecum and cause him fatigue, especially because it's not like he hasn't thrown a lot of pitches before. With him, there's really no concern that he won't figure it out; he's a great pitcher who has gone through struggles before, most notably August of last season. But it'd be nice if he figured it out soon because this offense can't afford for the pitching to be anything less than perfect.

Speaking of the offense, that's going to be rough to watch for a while. It's been beaten to death, but it's really amazing that the Giants have not only been hit by a ton of injuries, but they've been injuries to very important players. As Grant at McCovey Chronicles pointed out, the entire Opening Day starting infield, with the exception of Miguel Tejada, is out right now. Posey, Belt, Sanchez, Sandoval. That's UNBELIEVABLE. I mean, it's not too great when Andres Torres is your best player on offense by a pretty large margin. The only glimmer of hope is that the offense really can't get too much worse (knock on wood), and they are still in first place. Pablo Sandoval may not be the same player he was at the beginning of the year when he comes back, but he's still better than Tejada. Brandon Belt isn't too far away from returning. Maybe Bruce Bochy will realize that Pat Burrell should be getting more starts at the expense of Aaron Rowand, who is again terrible. Things should get better, but it's gonna be ugly for a while.

Also, Burriss and Tejada hitting 1-2 in the lineup? Hahah, I guess Bochy never figured out what OBP is.

Draft Reaction: Giants Select SS Joe Panik, RHP Kyle Crick

The Giants had two picks on the first day of the MLB Draft - one in the 1st, and one in the supplemental round - and used them on a college SS and a powerful high school RHP.

Here's a scouting report for St. John's SS Joe Panik from Keith Law (Insider Only):

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19119/joe-panik

And here's a more optimistic report from John Sickels of SBNation:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/6/6/2210519/2011-mlb-draft-tracker-results-giants-snag-infielder-panik

I do not like the Joe Panik pick. He put up good numbers (.398/.509/.642) in college, but when it comes to draft prospects, stats usually don't matter as much as tools. He supposedly has a weak arm, may need to move to 2B, and doesn't have much power. And if you listen to most scouts, the Giants made a major reach and probably could have selected him with the 49th pick in the supplemental round. I don't like criticizing the Giants when it comes to the draft because they've been pretty freakin' successful in that department recently, but Panik is the type of low upside, limited power hitter the Giants always seem to go for. If you can't read Law's report, he calls Panik a likely utility infielder. Baseball America called the pick the "first truly off-the-board pick of the night" and compare him to Freddy Sanchez. Not really what I'd like from my first round pick.

My main issue with the Giants is that it seems like they doubt their ability to develop raw hitters, so they take safe players like Panik instead of somewhat risky players with more star potential. And then they decide to sign guys like Aaron Rowand and Aubrey Huff to supply the power in the lineup. That's worked pretty well. Not. You may point to guys like Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Belt as hitters that have come through the Giants' minor league system and had success. I'd argue that Posey didn't need much development, Sandoval was signed on the international market, and Belt may be the exception to rule, assuming he pans out like we all think he will. Gary Brown (a pick I hated, so maybe you can call me an idiot in a year or so) is tearing up the minors right now, but his absolute ceiling is an All-Star leadoff man. I don't mean that to sound like a bad thing, but the Giants don't lack scrappy, high average hitters with speed as much as they do true middle of the order hitters. Maybe I'm being unreasonable; a good player is a good player. I suspect the Giants did prefer HS pitchers like Robert Stephenson and Joe Ross, who went slightly before the Giants picked. But with guys like Dillon Howard, Daniel Norris, and even someone like Travis Harrison on the board, Panik was still an overdraft. Maybe it has to do with my hatred of how the Giants deal with the draft and free agency. I've said it before: imagine Aaron Rowand not signing with the Giants, and the team using that $12 million every year on the draft. It's how it should be. The Giants played it too safe in my opinion and didn't get the best player on the board.

In the supplemental round, the Giants selected Sherman HS RHP Kyle Crick.

Here's another report from Keith Law (Insider Only):

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19102/kyle-crick

There were other available high school arms on the board I preferred, like Howard and Norris, although they probably had high price tags and I certainly liked the Crick pick better than Panik. Crick is 6'3", 220 lbs, so he's not very projectable but has the body of a typical power pitcher. His fastball sits 92-97, and according to Law he has an average changeup and average slider right now. There may be some question as to whether or not he can be a starting pitcher, but he has the potential to be a No. 2 or 3 starter. Mostly, I like the pick because it's not a huge overdraft and I always love pitching prospects. There's not really much else to say for Crick, who shouldn't be an especially tough sign out of high school.

Day 2 of the draft begins tomorrow. Let's hope for Josh Bell. Ha!

Ten Prospects to Watch

This is not necessarily a list of the top 10 Giants' prospects. I'd probably consider most of them to be in the top 10, but it's more a list of guys that really intrigue me. Maybe Eric Surkamp is a little too high, maybe Heath Hembree shouldn't be on the list, and where the hell is Ehire Adrianza? I don't necessarily expect a ton of people to agree with me. But the draft is near, I'm thinking about prospects, and I wanted to write about some who are exciting me. Also of note: I decided not to include Brandon Belt because we already know he's Will Clark 2.0.

1. Zack Wheeler

Wheeler in the top spot doesn't need much explanation. As the Giants' top pick in the 2009 draft, he came in with the normal amount of hype a No. 6 overall pick usually gets and hasn't really done anything to make people skeptical. His first year in the minors was a bit of a disappointment, starting only 13 games and pitching 58.2 innings because of a finger injury. But coming into the year, many believed he was due for a breakout. Keith law scouted him and wrote this report in the offseason. Just the other day, Adam Foster of projectprospect.com was at Wheeler's start and was clearly impressed. Just check out his tweets from that day or look for his write-up on the start in the next couple of days. So far this season, Wheeler has a 3.66 ERA with 41 Ks in 32 IP. That's a K/9 of 11.5 and his K/BB ratio of 3.15, compared to last year's 1.84, is also encouraging. It's hard not to get excited about a top pitching prospect and all the reports suggest that Wheeler has legitimate No. 1 potential. Hopefully he can keep it up and earn a midseason promotion to Double-A.

2. Gary Brown

I hated the Gary Brown pick. A speedy centerfielder with supposedly no power or patience at the patience, and little upside? Ugh. But Brown's early results are hard to ignore. His stat line 36 games into the year is .367/.445/.513/.958. That on base percentage and slugging percentage seem to defy the knocks on him coming out of the draft. He'll never hit many home runs, but he has the potential to hit loads of doubles and triples into the gaps with his speed. That speed also helps Brown play excellent defense. As an advanced college hitter, dominating Single-A doesn't say much, but he should earn a Double-A promotion at some point this year if he keeps hitting like this. Considering how I originally felt about the pick, I'm pretty happy with how he's turned out so far.

3. Eric Surkamp

Surkamp probably has no business being No. 3 on a team's prospect list. His absolute ceiling is probably a No. 4 starter and he might be overachieving just a bit right now. But this list is of prospects who intrigue me. A guy who leads the minors in strikeouts and does it with an 89 mph fastball intrigues me big time. Although I've never seen him pitch, supposedly he's been able to striekout 56 batters in 38.1 innings with very good secondary stuff. That's probably pretty obvious because an 89 mph fastball isn't gonna miss any bats, but hey, it's still impressive. I mean his K/9 is 13.1! And he is unable to throw harder than 90 MPH!!! It's not like this is some fluke, either. In his 3 previous years in the minors, Surkamp never had a K/9 below 9.6. And his ERA is 1.88. Don't discount the fact that the Giants have someone above Single-A that could actually be a decent MLB starter someday. That is extremely important and makes Surkamp even more valuable than he'd normally be. Maybe it's because I have a soft spot for guys who can succeed with pitching rather than raw velocity, but I'm extremely excited to see how he develops.

4. Charlie Culberson

Culberson has had a somewhat rough start to the year, but he stays pretty high on this list due to his breakout year in 2010 and generally positive reviews from scouts after his AFL dominance. The Eastern League, a notoriously terrible league for hitters, has not treated Culberson well so far, obvious when you look at his .293/.333/.387/.720 line. He is not walking or slugging nearly enough. He's still young (22) and it's his first year in Double-A, so I'm not too worried. There is cause for concern, however, when you consider that 2010 was Culberson's only successful year in the minors so far. But scouts like Keith Law and Jason Grey of ESPN liked the swing and a 2B who can hit is always a nice prospect. So, here's to hoping 2010 wasn't a fluke.

5. Thomas Neal

It's always been a bit hard to analyze Thomas Neal, as most scouts seem to think he'll be nothing more than a solid regular, and Giants fans constantly overrate him. Most of the reason Neal is high on this list is because he's probably the closest thing to a powerful, patient hitter in the Giants' minor league system. Neal has had some impressive numbers (mainly his 1.010 OPS in 2009), convincing many fans that he was a legitimate top prospect. In 2010, after a promotion to Double-A, Neal finished with a .799 OPS, which isn't terrible in the Eastern League especially considering he started to heat up towards the end of the year, but it's not particularly special either. Add in the fact that he's only played 12 games in Fresno this season because of injuries (always an issue for Neal), and it's still hard to know what he can become. Seeing as I don't claim to be any kind of expert, I do defer to the opinions of scouts, and they haven't fully bought into Neal. But he is still just 23 and has always had power and patience at the plate. I want to believe, but I think we need Neal to play some more this year in order to judge him as a prospect. At the very least, he should be a serviceable major leaguer.

6. Francisco Peguero

Even worse than Neal having played just 12 games this year, Peguero has played in none. Knee surgery has kept him off the field so far, but Peguero's solid 2010 season (.329/.358/.488/.846) means he remains as one of the Giants' top prospects. There are a few concerns with Peguero, though. He's not extremely young, as a 22 (almost 23) year old who hasn't yet played a game above Single-A. Also, Peguero is very much a hacker. He drew just 18 walks all of last season, which means he'll always have to hit for a high average to be a factor on offense. Maybe he will continue to hit for high average, but prospects with no patience always make me nervous. Peguero is also extremely fast and has decent power. He certainly comes with questions but is also a very interesting prospect.

7. Jarrett Parker

If you don't know much about the Giants' minor league system, you may not even know who Jarrett Parker is. Well, he was actually the Giants' second round pick in the 2010 draft, and he's starting to show signs of becoming a good outfield prospect. Parker struggled early on, but has started to heat up in May, currently hitting .265/.386/.444/.830. The biggest plus is that downright sexy walk rate. You can see from the large difference between his AVG and OBP, that he walks a LOT. I love patience and you see so many young prospects who don't have it, so it's refreshing. I mean he's already walked more times (20) than Peguero did all last year (18). Right now he is striking out way too much (32 times in 31 games), but he is improving. Gobroks, who knows a ton about the draft and prospects in general (you can follow him on Twitter @Gobroks) actually thought Parker was a better prospect than Gary Brown at the time of the draft. That's an indication that he has a good amount of potential. Hopefully he builds on his May success.

8. Heath Hembree

Hembree is a relief pitching prospect in Single-A, so it might seem odd that he's on the list. But he interests me because he's someone with a lot of velocity on his fastball who could potentially move fast through the system and become a shutdown pitcher in the bullpen for the major league team for a while. Hembree, a fifth round pick in 2010, has had a lot of early success as San Jose's closer. 25 strikeouts in 15 innings and a 0.60 ERA is always nice, but it's not a huge sample size. Hembree did strikeout 22 batters in 11 innings in Rookie Ball last year, so his success isn't too unexpected. Mainly, Hembree has been mostly unhittable during the early part of his career, and I consider him to be the top relief pitching prospect in the system.

9. Ryan Verdugo

Verdugo is another guy rated highly because he's a SP prospect in Double-A, who's having success. What makes him even more intriguing is that up until this year he's been a reliever, but the Giants started his transition to a SP during the Arizona Fall League. So far, the results have been good. In 6 starts, Verdugo has a 3.03 ERA with 31 Ks in 29.2 innings. Not a large sample size at all, but Verdugo has always had good stuff and showed as much during the AFL. There's reason for optimism, and if he could give the Giants another SP prospect in the upper minors, that's huge.

10. Brandon Crawford

The Giants badly need a SS. Miguel Tejada sucks. Fontenot isn't the long-term either. Rarely are there good free agent options. In my mind, Brandon Crawford is the best shortstop option in the Giants' system. Crawford has always been great defensively and is probably major-league ready there right now. But his offense needs to progress. That seems to be a theme with Giants SS prospects, actually. It's why I rate Crawford ahead of Adrianza; I don't believe in Adrianza's offense at all and I believe in Crawford's a little bit. Crawford's problem is that he keeps getting injured. Just recently he's started rehabbing in Single-A and is soon scheduled to start his season in AAA. He's always been able to draw walks, so if he was able to hit for average just a bit more and play very good defense, he could be a pretty valuable major leaguer.

Feel free to comment with your disagreements, as I'm sure there are many. Also, on a semi-related note: the draft is coming up, so I hope to have some draft profiles, or at the very least a draft preview, so keep an eye out.

SF 5, ARI 3: Mota Good, Zito Baaaad

Barry Zito only lasted 1 2/3 innings tonight after spraining his foot catching a bunt pop up. It remains to be seen whether Zito will make his next start or even go on the DL, but reports say he was walking on crutches after the game. Unfortunately, Zito probably wouldn't have lasted long either way because in the little time that he did pitch, he looked pretty terrible.

This is the first start of Zito's I've seen this year, so I am basing this assessment on an extremely small sample size, but considering his ERA was 5.56 coming into tonight, I think it's safe to assume he hasn't been very good so far. The most shocking thing to me was the velocity on Zito's fastball. Obviously he's never thrown hard, but if I remember correctly, Zito's fastball velocity was around 86-88 at the start of last season. Tonight it was 82-84, with most of them closer to 82. Velocity is a very overrated aspect of pitching because pitchers can succeed with good command and movement on their pitches, but wow, an 82 mph fastball is just really, really slow. Considering he keeps losing 1-2 mph on the fastball every year, what is he going to have a 79 mph heater in 2 years? Obviously I'm exaggerating, but not many pitchers survive with a fastball that soft. Not only that, but his pitches weren't moving and he wasn't controlling his offspeed stuff at all.

I don't want to sound like an irrational Zito hater, because that's exactly the opposite of what I am. I still think Zito is one of the best 5th starters in baseball and better than a lot of No. 4s. I thought Bruce Jenkins' notion that Zito might be cut was beyond ludicrous. I scoff at those who think the Giants have a better option in the minors. I do feel bad for the guy. He's making $18 million a year but it can't be easy going through the amount of criticism he gets and it's not his fault that a team was stupid enough to give him that much money. And most importantly, I do realize I've personally only seen 1.2 innings of his work. He did have a pretty good start to the season after all, the 1st inning notwithstanding. But being a Zito apologist who kept thinking he could put together a season better than the year before, I can't pretend like I'm not a little concerned. He looked baaaaaaaad today.

Again, I refuse to react crazily to SSS(small sample size). Just an observation.

Anyway, the Giants did win this game, so I should point out the happy from today. Buster Posey hit a 2-run homer in the 1st and Freddy Sanchez drove in 3 runs with a double and a single. And Guillermo Mota absolutely saved the bullpen by coming in and allowing just 1 ER in 4 1/3 IP, the most of his career.

The Giants go for the sweep tomorrow against Barry Enright, who is one of those mediocre pitchers that always makes the Giants offense look bad. Bumgarner is pitching for the Giants, so it'll be interesting to see if he can put together his first quality start of the year.

LAD 6, SF 1: Kershaw Dominates Again

This and this. And then tonight. All Clayton Kershaw does is dominate the Giants. In fact, he has now gone 23.2 innings without giving up a run to the Giants. But you know what? Kershaw does that to a lot of teams because he's one of the best young pitchers in all of baseball. He may not have the same track record, but he is the Dodgers' Tim Lincecum. And while the Giants may not have the best offense and some may want to blame the stupid rookie Brandon Belt for not getting a hit against one of the best lefties in the game, they just had trouble against a very, very good pitcher and probably will continue to have trouble with him for the next 10 years. My god he is impressive.

Madison Bumgarner has had a weird start to the season. Last week in San Diego, Bumgarner was actually looking pretty great through the first two innings before throwing over 40 pitches in the 3rd inning. And that 3rd inning was a bit unlucky. The Padres did what the Padres always do, annoy the hell out of you with long at-bats and bloop hits, and all of a sudden Bumgarner had allowed 3 runs in 3 innings and was out of the game. Today, he was again throwing pretty well. The first run scored when after Matt Kemp walked and stole second base, James Loney hit a liner that ricocheted off Freddy Sanchez's glove, scoring Kemp. Then came the 5th inning, when Rod Barajas led off with a homer. 2-0 Dodgers. After Rafael Furcal walked and advanced to 2nd on a single from Jamey Carroll, he stole 3rd base. However, the replays showed that Furcal was clearly out, so no runner should have been on 3rd. Furcal then scored on a single, and with runners on 1st and 2nd, Matt Kemp singled to left field and the ball went right under Pat Burrell's glove all the way to the wall, scoring both runners. After looking pretty sharp through 4 innings, Bumgarner's final line was: 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 Ks. Kind of a bizarre start to the season for Bumgarner so far.

A loss to the Dodgers is always frustrating, especially when the offense looks completely helpless. But let's all remember that this was the 10th game of the year. There are 162 games in a season, and if you are extremely stressed and concerned after 10 games, I feel bad for you and I don't know how you ever survive a baseball season. The Giants will go on winning streaks and plenty of losing streaks as well. It's what happens. Just because they are having a rough start doesn't mean they are a bad team in need of major changes. Brandon Belt needs to be sent back to the minors after 35 major league ABs? No. Bumgarner needs to work on his stuff in the minors after 2 bad starts? Please, stop. Just stop it.

Brandon Belt Makes the Cut

I'll admit that I was pretty apathetic about the whole "Will Belt start the season in AAA or in the big leagues" thing. If he made the team, great. If he was sent back to AAA, fine, a little minor league seasoning wouldn't hurt and the Giants would probably be fine for a month or two without him. Well, today Belt made the cut, and I am very, very excited. If nothing else, there's always a lot of anticipation involved with a top prospect making their debut and thinking about that prospect carrying your favorite team for years to come. It's also pretty refreshing to see a team ignore all the arbitration clock crap. Don't get me wrong, that stuff is important, but it shouldn't affect putting your best team out on the field. The Giants thought Belt was ready, they wanted him on the team now, and they aren't worrying about how much more money he'll make in a few years.

Of course, as the Giants set their 25-man roster today, there were other roster moves made. To make room for Belt, the Giants designated Travis Ishikawa for assignment. That was no surprise as Ishikawa becomes sort of redundant and inferior with Belt on the roster. The interesting thing to see will happen in a few weeks when Cody Ross comes off the disabled list. If the Giants are rolling, Ross is probably staying on the bench, at least initially. But if Burrell struggles or maybe even Torres starts slowly, they might be the ones losing their starting spot. And who gets cut? Every Giants fan and their mother wants Rowand and his $24 million slary cut, but it could be Nate Schierholtz.

The last bullpen spot was given to Dan Runzler. I'm not sure what that means for his attempted transition into a starting pitcher, but it does mean that Ryan Vogelsong and Marc Kroon, both longshots to make the roster, are headed for the minors. Guillermo Mota was also given a bullpen spot, and one of he and Runzler is likely gone once Brian Wilson comes off the DL.

Here's what the final roster looks like:

Starting Lineup

Torres

F. Sanchez

Huff

Posey

Burrell

Sandoval

Belt

Tejada

Bench

DeRosa

Schierholtz

Fontenot

Whiteside

Rowand

Starting Rotation

Lincecum

J. Sanchez

Cain

Zito

Bumgarner

Bullpen

Ramirez

Mota

Runzler

Lopez

Affeldt

Casilla

Romo

I also wanted to do a small division preview type of thing. We have been absolutely terrible offseason bloggers, and we really have no excuse. But by tomorrow night we will be doing recaps for every game and hopefully featuring more content in general. I think the regular season and watching actual games motivates us to write. Anyway, even though this should've been done in a different, more comprehensive post, here are my thoughts on the division.

I have the Giants finishing in first place, and if I get anyone telling me a homer, I might kill myself. The Giants are simply the most complete team in a pretty weak division. But as we've outlined before, they do need a lot of things to go right, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Rockies or even the Dodgers *shudder* came out on top. The Rockies usually hit a lot, but I really only see 2 dangerous hitters in their lineup, Tulowitzki and Gonzalez. Their rotation is pretty solid, but nothing spectacular. I have them in second place. The Dodgers finish third, mostly because their offense could struggle to score runs and their staff is deep, but also not spectacular. The Padres don't have much going for them, but the Diamondbacks are terrible, so they'll finish in fourth place. The Diamondbacks are terrible. Fifth place. I'm not going to make any kind of World Series prediction because I don't want to pick against the Giants but I don't want to pick them either. There's my beautiful season preview.

Tomorrow is opening day. Opening day would be exciting enough, but it's Opening Day with the 2010 World Series Champion San Francisco Giants facing the enemy LA Dodgers. And Brandon Belt is making his debut. It doesn't get much better than that.

Pablo Sandoval and the 2011 Giants Offense

A few weeks ago, the Giants re-signed Guillermo Mota to a minor league deal. Lou Piniella is joining the organization as a consultant. Oh, and Jeff Suppan signed a minor league contract as well. Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean got their options for 2012 picked up. And just yesterday, the team gave another one of those minor league pacts to Mexican Pacific League star Justin Christian. None of this news has been blogged about on this site because we suck (And really, who cares about Jeff Suppan?). Sorry about the lack of Justin Christian analysis, though. I guess I've gotten caught up in following the pathetic seasons of the 49ers and Kings and put the Giants on the back burner, which is absolutely shameful. But FanFest was yesterday, and while it's a chaotic event that I will never ever attend again, it's pretty cool that it was so crowded with fans that the team had to tell people to STOP coming. So, I'm starting to get pumped up for baseball to start again.

Not to mention that the subject of this post, Pablo Sandoval, has started a Twitter account and it's been great. Whether it's pictures he's posted, tweets explaining his intense workout regimen, or visual accounts from various people, all reports are that Pablo looks great and has lost about 30 pounds of fat while adding lean muscle. This is HUGE news.

Something lost in all of the post-World Series win euphoria has been the fact that the Giants did not have a very good offense in 2010 and haven't really done anything to improve it, which means improvements will have to come from within. Maybe that will come from top prospect Brandon Belt, but he's not likely to start the season with the team and not all rookies can impact a team like Buster Posey did. Speaking of Posey, having him for a full season should help, but there's no guarantee he'll outperform his pretty great 2010 numbers. Miguel Tejada as an improvement over Edgar Renteria/Juan Uribe? It's quite likely that that is the opposite of an upgrade.

Let's consider a few more areas where the Giants may actually regress in 2011. Andres Torres is somewhat of an unknown, as he's really only had 1 full season of playing time. He had a great 2010 and was crucial to the team's success, but he struggled some later in the year, carrying just a .303 OBP over the second half of the season, which is not ideal production from your leadoff hitter. Aubrey Huff was perhaps the Giants' offensive MVP in 2010 and they are expecting that he'll be an extremely valuable part of the offense in 2011, which is a little scary. Huff is another valuable piece from 2010 who we can expect some regression from in 2011. Just one year removed from having an OPS+ of just 81, it's entirely possible his 2011 production won't approach his 138 OPS+ of 2010. After August 1st, Huff batted just .255/.360/.426 for the rest of the season. That's not bad, and maybe it was just a late-season slump, but considering Huff's inconsistency over the last few years, it's still cause for concern. Huff is 34 and if the later part of 2010 represented a true regression, it's not going to be good enough for the middle of the order hitter the Giants are expecting him to be. We also need to remember that despite his postseason heroics, Cody Ross had a regular season OPS+ of just 93 in 2010. Pat Burrell is getting older and his 2010 with the Giants may have been somewhat of a fluke, considering his 2009 and 2010 with the Rays. I've already mentioned how maybe expectations for Buster Posey and Brandon Belt should be tempered. Basically, this offense doesn't seem to have much upside for improvement.

Enter Pablo Sandoval, the Giants' best chance at a significantly improved offense. Fans have been begging Sandoval to lose weight for a long time now and the Giants even threatened him with a demotion to the minors if he didn't get in shape. I've never bought into the idea that losing lots of weight was going to help Pablo's offense. Sure, it'd help with his agility and range, which would improve his defense, but he's always been a big guy and his weight didn't seem to affect him at all in 2009. But losing weight and adding muscle can't HURT his offense and the most exciting part about this is the dedication he seems to be showing. If you believe Sandoval, he's been working out 6 times a week, twice a day for a couple of months now, while laying off the soda and chips. And not only is he working out, but he's been talking to Barry Bonds about improving his plate discipline, which was the real reason for his struggles at the plate. If this news doesn't get you really excited, I don't know what does. So soon people forget that Pablo Sandoval posted an OPS+ of 144 in his first full major league season, at the age of 22. He struggled in 2010, posting an OPS+ of 95 and batting just .268/.323/.409, but that happens to young players. At age 24, Sandoval is still extremely young and has a ton of time to get back to how he was playing a year ago. As a fan, you have to at least appreciate that he looks willing to do whatever he has to do to reach his potential. And most importantly, if all of this offseason work pays dividends on the diamond, the Giants could be adding a legitimate middle of the order bat without even making a transaction.

I guess the post turned into more of a depressing, worst-case-scenario look at the Giants' offense instead of an optimistic Pablo Sandoval commentary. Or maybe it can be both. That's just it, as an objective fan, I look at the team and I worry about that offense a little bit. Remember, the Giants barely got into the playoffs despite GREAT pitching. The offense can't afford to get any worse. So Pablo Sandoval will be huge in 2011. In all likelihood, he won't get back to being one of the league's best hitters in just one year, but his progress and commitment are extremely exciting. And if he does return to form, the Giants could have a very good offense for a long time. Think about a Posey-Sandoval-Belt heart of the order for a second. It's a wonderful thought.

Random Winter Thoughts: Schilling and Brown, Sabathia and Cain

Last week, I tweeted that if voters plan to cast a Hall of Fame ballot for Curt Schilling when he is eligible, they should do the same for Kevin Brown this year. Thanks to a retweet by the great Keith Law, I got a lot of responses to this. Most of them cited the fact that Schilling had many impressive postseasons, memorably beating the Yankees with both the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox (it seemed to be that not only was his playoff performance stellar, but the fact that it came against the Yankees made it even more so, a sentiment that really makes me cringe). I don't think that postseason performance should factor much into Hall of Fame worthiness. I especially don't think a great pitcher should be penalized because of poor postseason starts. But I can appreciate the position of giving credit to a pitcher for outstanding pitching in the games that matter most. However, this only applies to the Schilling/Brown situation if you believe that Curt Schilling is not already a Hall of Famer, independent of his playoff heroics. I think Schilling is a Hall of Famer just based on his regular season performance, and to my surprise, a lot of the people on Twitter did not. So I forgot about Brown almost immediately, and started thinking about Schilling.

I could understand keeping Curt Schilling out of the Hall of Fame if you believed in the idea of a "Small Hall", where only the most excellent players of all time would be. This concept is attractive, but unrealistic, because the Hall of Fame is what it already is. You can think that certain players don't belong there, but once they are in, the standards have somewhat changed. I don't think because Andre Dawson is in that every player who compares favorably to Andre Dawson should be in as well. But to some extent, the "if ___ is in, then ____ should be" is a valid argument. And there are a number of worse pitchers than Curt Schilling in the Hall of Fame. He had a long career, and a good peak, not as dominant a peak as some peers, but extended enough to make up for that. He was never the best pitcher in baseball, but that was because 4 of the greatest pitchers ever (Clemens, RJ, Maddux, Pedro) were pitching at the same time. Strikeout-to-walk-ratio isn't a perfect statistic at all, but it is still useful, and Schilling has the 2nd best K/BB ratio of all time, 4.38. In the "Big Hall", he's a clear Hall of Famer to me.

I think baseball fans who are continually learning about sabermetrics and advanced statistics forget just how large a large portion of the baseball community still judges a pitcher by his W-L record. And this must be the explanation for fans thinking Schilling may not be a Hall of Famer, because he has "only" 216 career wins. There's no need for me to explain why wins and losses are irrelevent; it's been talked about forever, and you either get it or you're just stubborn and don't care about the objective analysis of baseball. Just looking at one season, wins are quite useless. A career is different: wins and losses won't tell us anything that important, but the length of time in a career pretty much guarantees that a "bad" pitcher won't end up with 300 wins. But does that mean a pitcher with 300 wins is definitively better than one with 216? Absolutely not. But the road to 300 wins is a strange one.

People wonder if we will ever see a 300 win pitcher again. It shouldn't matter, but it would be kinda cool. I think we will, and I think the pitcher currently who has the best shot at it is CC Sabathia. Consider this: Sabathia will be 30 next year, and he already has 157 wins. He will likely be pitching the majority of his remaining career with the Yankees, a team we expect to provide good offense every season. He appears to have a durable body. And he's a great pitcher right now, in his prime. All of those factors demonstrate how CC can get to 300 wins. Most of all, it's that high win total, 157, at 30 years old, very rare for pitchers these days.

From 2001-2005, the start of his career, Sabathia went 69-45, a .605 winning percentage. Yet, he was only an above average to good pitcher. His ERA+ was 107 over that period. By logging many innings, his overall value was good (14.4 rWAR, 17.9 fWAR). But not good enough to post a .605 winning percentage over a 5 year period, at least, not without some very good fortune. Sabathia has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2006, but it was his ability to start a career earlier and stock up on many wins at a young age that puts him in position to win 300 games. And it could have been very different. He could have been Matt Cain.

Whether Matt Cain will ever reach the level Sabathia is at right now remains to be seen. But I think comparing Sabathia and Cain in their first 5 seasons is fascinating (I leave out Cain's 2005 season, because he only pitched 46 innings). Sabathia's first full season was at age 20, Cain at age 21. Here are the stats they put up:

Sabathia: 972.2 IP, 4.10 ERA, 107 ERA+, 14.4 rWAR, 17.9 fWAR, 69-45 (.605%) W-L Record

Cain: 1049.1 IP, 3.50 ERA, 124 ERA+, 15.4 rWAR, 18.7 fWAR, 55-61 (.474%) W-L Record

The WAR numbers are pretty close, but Cain is slightly ahead in both. He also threw more innings. And the adjusted ERA isn't that close, relatively speaking. Yet look at those W-L records.

There's no reason really to compare Cain and Sabathia; all pitchers are different, and whether Sabathia "deserves" all that great fortune early in his career is nullified by his now long held status as one of the best in baseball (he currently has 4 straight seasons of 230 or more IP, and his ERA+ over that period is 142) . Cain has yet to reach those heights, and he might never. I said I wouldn't even go into how pitcher wins are useless, but this side by side comparison says it all. They are very close in performance, and Cain is better. Looking at the W-L records, you'd think think the exact opposite. And you'd be so completely, utterly wrong.

Rowand for Fukudome? Yes, Please.

First of all, I'm gonna apologize for not posting anything over the last couple of weeks. With finals going on for both of us, we decided to take a break. But we're back and ready to go with the news this morning that the Giants and Cubs have discussed an Aaron Rowand-Kosuke Fukudome trade, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com.

It's no surprise that Rowand is being shopped - he has a huge contract, isn't good, and as the roster currently stands, it doesn't seem like there is room for him. And this particular rumor is especially appealing because almost everything about Fukudome is better than Rowand. His 2010, which wasn't too far off his career numbers (.259/.368/.410/.778), looked like this: .263/.371/.439/.810 in 429 PAs. Fukudome strikes out quite a bit (20.8% career) but his career walk rate (14.7%) is very good. Rowand had an OBP under .300 last year and has a career walk rate of 5.6%. It's pretty clear who the better offensive player is.

I've always assumed that when getting rid of Rowand, the Giants would have to pay most of the salary and get nothing back in return besides a crappy reliever. As I mentioned above, Rowand pretty much has to go because the Giants have too many outfielders - Burrell, Torres, Ross, Schierholtz, Rowand, DeRosa, Huff/Belt. Getting rid of Rowand for nothing would solve the outfield overcrowding problem. But adding another OF like Fukudome means another outfielder would have to go, most likely Schierholtz. Luckily, Fukudome isn't terrible on defense and defense is really the only reason Nate is still around. As a right fielder, he's fared pretty well according to UZR, with scores of 6.0 in 2008, 7.8 in 2009, and dropping off a bit in 2010 at -4.4. He is 33 and isn't likely to improve much on defense, but he won't clog up the outfield either.

I thought maybe the only other player the Giants could get in return for Rowand would be one with a bad contract. While Fukudome does make $13.5 million (way too much), it's only for one more year and his contract is actually better than Rowand's, which has 2 years and $24 million left. For this reason, I can't understand why the Cubs would do the deal. Crasnick does say the trade is a long shot. Maybe the Cubs want to save money this year? The Giants would probably throw some money into the deal, but it still seems weird. In the end, all the evaluations of Fukudome as a player don't matter because we know these two things: he's a better player with a better contract. And Rowand would finally be gone. Please make it happen, Sabez.

Giants Sign Miguel Tejada

Although it isn't official until his physical, we can safely say that former MVP Miguel Tejada will be the Giants starting shortstop for 2011. Tejada's deal is for 1 year, $6 million. In essence, he'll be replacing Juan Uribe, and when you look at the 2 players and the contracts they each got, the Giants situation appears quite favorable. Before Uribe joined the Giants in 2009, he had just had 4 seasons with an average OPS+ of 77. He may not be that bad ever again, but giving him a 3 year contract is pretty foolish. Meanwhile, Tejada will only be with the Giants for 1 year, and isn't costing a lot. Looking at it purely from that perspective, the move isn't bad at all. Also, there are a lot of positive things to say about Miguel Tejada.

He was one of the better shortstops in baseball most of this decade, thanks to his ability to make hard contact and hit for power from the weakest (or 2nd weakest) offensive position on the diamond. His career defensive numbers aren't pretty, but they aren't atrocious either. He is considered a great clubhouse leader and continually competitive, motivated player, who even at 36 is in better shape than many major leaguers. All those qualities are impressive and admirable. So, having established that Tejada for 1 year is "okay" (because it's more favorable than keeping the current SS, Uribe), and going over what his reputation is as a player and teammate, you might wonder why I dislike this signing as much as I do.

It isn't nearly as popular to criticize Brian Sabean these days as it was a mere, oh, 5 months ago. A World Series trophy, somewhat rightly, buys a lot of credibility. But I think the Tejada signing represents just another uncreative move by Sabean to fill a position with an aging veteran. And just because we all hated the Aubrey Huff signing last year, and he succeeded beyond anyone's expectations, doesn't mean the Giants should AIM to spend the offseason picking up the players no one else really wants. You can only get lucky like that so many times. And there's really no reason to refrain from fair criticism of Sabean simply because the team just won the World Series. This offseason is now about winning it in 2011. 2010, as magical a year as it was, has nothing to do with that.

So why do I think the Tejada signing is uncreative and disappointing? Simply because it appears that better shortstop options are in fact out there to be had. JJ Hardy (#JJHardyorGTFO) could be available, either in a trade or simply as a free agent if the Twins non-tender him (this might be less likely than I hope; the Twins seem to have ideas of other options at SS, but all analysis points to Hardy being their best option). Marco Scutaro and Jason Bartlett are both trade options, and the Red Sox and Rays want middle relief in return, something the Giants have. If you were to go just by last year's performance, Tejada is very close to all 3 of these guys, or better. I think you could reasonably expect that all of them might end up giving the same production in 2011 (1.5-2.5 WAR). But the other 3 possible SS all have something that I believe Tejada lacks: the potential to have a big year. Hardy had 4.3 and 4.9 WAR seasons in 2007 and 2008 (and positive UZR numbers in every season of his career; how the hell could the Twins not want to keep this guy? I think maybe they will keep him). Bartlett had a huge offensive season in 2009, then a total dropoff in 2010. The same for Scutaro, on a smaller scale. Now, of course, Tejada has had a much more productive career than any of these guys. But Miguel Tejada is going to be 37 next season. His skills have been diminishing every season. His power is mostly gone. His defense is not good. And he'll be playing one of the most demanding defensive positions, everyday. He doesn't strike out a lot; he never has. Going hand in hand with that, he doesn't walk much either (never has). Although Tejada doesn't make as much contact as he used to, he will still hit his share of singles and doubles, and most of his offense comes from that. But his age and free swinging tendencies also means lots of double plays. Tejada has led the league in double plays 5 times. Yeah. I've come to the conclusion that Tejada isn't actually a disaster. But it remains to be seen if the Giants could have done a lot better.

Speaking of double plays, I want to end the post with a word on Pablo Sandoval. When we first heard about the Tejada signing, there was talk that perhaps he was being signed to play 3rd base, or to at least pressure Pablo into performing well, because Tejada would be waiting to take over. This I hate. It's truly amazing how our expectations shape our perceptions and observations. We can all agree that Sandoval had a bad 2010 season. But it was still better and more productive than Tejada's in nearly every way (I tweeted the numbers that support this, you can find them by simply comparing their 2010 slashlines, wOBA, and WAR on fangraphs). I fully expect Sandoval to rebound in 2011, but even if he barely did so, he would be better than Tejada. Perhaps we'll need to write a full post on Sandoval this offseason. I am truly mystified how so many fans have given up on a young player so quickly, especially when you consider what he did so recently in 2009 at the age of 22.

Juan Uribe Signs With the....Dodgers?!

Today, Juan Uribe has signed with the Dodgers, yes THEM, for 3 years and $21 million. Uribe is no Giants legend, who after spending his entire career in San Francisco is ending his career by playing for the enemy. But after his home run sent the Giants to the World Series, he'll be a Giants postseason hero forever and that is why it's a little painful to think of him in Dodger blue. Nonetheless, it's a good thing the Giants didn't match the offer.

Three years and $21 million is too much for Juan Uribe. That amount of money isn't as much today as it used to be, but giving a low OBP player, who is coming off a season that was WORSE than the year before, that much money and that many years just doesn't seem like a good investment (Not that I care if the Dodgers are handing out bad deals). Uribe is a hacker. He swings at tons of pitches outside the zone, so he strikes out a lot, but it also means he doesn't walk much, and will always have a low OBP. His career on-base percentage is .300 and his best OBP for a single season was .329 in 2009 with the Giants. He actually had the highest walk rate of his career in 2010 (7.8%), and his OBP was still just .310. And he'll be 32 on Opening Day 2011. He does have the ability to hit some huge home runs, but that's not a player I want to commit to for 3 years.

Uribe does provide value defensively because he can play three infield positions (2B, SS, 3B) and plays them all at least decently. According to UZR he's been a plus defender for the most part. But he's no defensive wizard, and at age 32 and looking at his body type, it's likely he'll lose some range. On a good team, he should provide above-average defense and be hitting towards the bottom of the lineup. So again, I'm not sure that warrants $21 million over 3 years.

I was never a huge Juan Uribe fan, but after the World Series, I appreciate the hell out of what he gave the Giants. In that sense, it's too bad the enemy gave him the best deal. On the other hand, losing Uribe shouldn't be a huge loss for the Giants, and they would have been idiots to give him a better deal than he got from the Dodgers. It'll be interesting to see how he's greeted when he comes back to San Francisco. I've heard things like he's a traitor or he's not loyal. This isn't about loyalty. He played for with the Giants for 2 years. He deserved to go out and find the best deal he could, as it was likely his last opportunity to really cash in. I have to hate him now, but I will never forget how important he was to this team. When he gets his World Series ring, maybe I'll give a little cheer for just him, but after that, I'll be booing. It's just business, gotta keep the rivalry alive. Here's to hoping that Uribe works out about as well for the Dodgers as Jason Schmidt did.

Giants Re-Sign Aubrey Huff

As first reported by Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, the Giants have re-signed Aubrey Huff to a 2-year, $22 million deal with a 3rd year club option. My first reaction was probably similar to yours: Wow, $11 million a year is a lot of money for Huff, probably too much. But I'm okay with this deal for a couple of reasons.

The key part of the deal is the years. The Giants only signed him for 2 years, which is huge. Huff wanted 3 years and there were likely teams that would've given it to him, but the Giants got him for just two, likely because they gave him more money per year.

Most reasonable Giants fans know it would be a miracle for Huff to repeat his 2010 numbers. This year he was a .290/.385/.506/.891 hitter with a 5.7 WAR. But in 2009 he was just a .241/.310/.384/.694 hitter with a -1.4 WAR. It's what makes him such a weird player. He had such a terrible year in 2009 and then when most people thought his career was pretty much over, he comes back with a great 2010. It's hard to know or even guess what he'll give you in 2011. In addition to the possibility that Huff's 2010 was mostly a fluke, he's not getting younger, his 2010 defensively was very likely a fluke, and he did post more mediocre numbers on offense after August 1st (.255/.360/.426/.786). I don't know how he'll do next year, but considering his age and slight regression towards the end of 2010, it's likely that the Giants overpaid for him. But the worst case scenario is that he's a player really not worth his salary at all, who the team hasn't made a long-term commitment to. The more likely scenario is that he provides average production at the position. But if that worst case scenario presents itself, his contract won't be a pain in the ass for a long time.

If we just want to focus on the Giants competing next season, it's quite possible that the Giants had no better option than to bring back Huff. With top prospect Brandon Belt hopefully being ready to start on Opening Day or at least come up midseason, the Giants are basically paying Huff to be their left fielder. According to Keith Law's Top 50 Free Agents list (Insider), Huff would be the 3rd best option for a team looking for an outfielder, behind just Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. The Giants were not going to get Crawford or Werth; they don't have enough money and would have had to commit to long-term deals with them. I imagine Law ranked Huff as the 15th best free agent assuming he would be a first baseman, and maybe Huff's below average defense makes him less valuable in the outfield, but still, the next best free agent outfield options include guys like Manny Ramirez, Magglio Ordonez, and Johnny Damon. I'd rather have Huff. Maybe the Giants could have replaced Huff through the trade market? Maybe, but I find it unlikely that they'd be able to acquire a player better than Huff, without giving up some pretty good prospects. They also don't have many internal options that could replace Huff's production. Nate Schierholtz? Not enough offense. Darren Ford? Hellll no. Thomas Neal? Maybe later, but he's not quite ready. Of all the realistic possibilities, Aubrey Huff is probably the best option for the Giants in left field.

Today, Aubrey Huff probably got more money than he should have. He was a great player last year and an important leader in the clubhouse, but it's unlikely he'll have such a great year again. However, the deal given to Huff is not terrible. Really, it's not hard to imagine another team offering him 2 years and $20 million. Normally, I might say if that's what Huff was looking for, the Giants should move on and look elsewhere. But it's doubtful that the Giants could find another player in their price range more likely to produce than Huff. At worst, the Giants have a mediocre player or worse who they only have to pay for 2 years. At best, they have a player who is definitely worth the money. Huff's value will likely fall somewhere in between. A 2 year, $22 million contract is not going to drastically limit the team financially; the Rowand and Zito contracts have already done that. I don't love the deal, but I definitely don't hate it either.

Giants Free Agent Profile: Aubrey Huff

When I think of the 2010 World Champion Giants, I think of Aubrey Huff. In his first season with the team, Huff always felt like the leader, the man in the center. After all, he hit 3rd most of the season. He led the team in most offensive categories. On a team that had mostly hackers, Huff and Torres (and later Burrell) added an element of patience at the plate that hasn't existed in the SF lineup since, well, maybe since Barry Bonds left. He was on fire most of the first half, dropped off slightly in the 2nd, but was still good, and had some big hits in the postseason, notably his HR in Game 4 of the World Series. Now the Giants have to decide whether Huff is worth bringing back, because he is likely to get some attractive offers from other teams.

Huff had by far his best season as a major leaguer in 2010. Huff came up to the majors in 2000, and from 2002-2004, he was consistently good offensively for Tampa Bay, but his value was hurt by poor defense. He then had a down year in 2005, was traded midseason in 2006 to Houston, and had a mediocre season for Baltimore in 2007. Huff then had a great season for the Orioles in 2008, with a .387 wOBA. After a terrific 2008, and going into a walk year in 2009, Huff was suddenly horrible. A lifetime .287 hitter at the time, his average dropped to .241. His walk and strikeout numbers stayed about the same, but for the first time since 2001 he slugged below .400 (his career slugging at that point was .483, a hundred points higher than his 2009 slugging). It was a disaster for Huff, and it looked like 2008 had been a fluke. After all, he had been going downhill since 2004, and maybe he finally reached the bottom. Then he ended up with the Giants, had a remarkable 2010 season, and now we are left to wonder if 2009 was the fluke year.

Looking at his 2010 stats, one thing clearly stands out: Huff was more patient than he's ever been. His career high 12.4% walk rate led to a career high .385 OBP, and that mixed with a few other things gave him his career highs in wOBA (.385) and WAR (5.7). In his seasons in Tampa, Huff got on base at an above average rate, but it wasn't anything spectacular (.360-.370). Huff's slugging in 2010 slightly exceeded his career average, but it wasn't as high as some of the power numbers he put up earlier in the decade.

Is it really possible that a 33 year old veteran was able to suddenly become a more patient, better hitter out of nowhere? It certainly isn't normal, especially on the heels of such a massive the previous year. But another part of Huff's 2010 season is even less normal, and that was his very competent defense. Huff was bad defensively pretty much his whole career. This year, he was asked to play 1st base, left field, and right field, and played them all without hurting the team. Interestingly, Huff's buddy Pat Burrell also had a fine defensive year, while holding a reputation as a poor fielder. I don't know whether we can expect either to have as a good a season next year in that department. Should Huff return to the Giants, there is a question of where he would play. His best position is 1st base, but the Giants do have to keep Brandon Belt in mind for 2011, even if he starts in AAA. Huff showed in 2010 that he can move around, but it's not ideal at all to have him in right field if the Giants can help it. Either way, if the Giants want Belt to possibly play first base, the outfield corner spots would have to be flexible for Huff to move there.

I think it's clear the Giants would like to bring Huff back, and that he would like to come back. But Huff would also like to cash in on his career year, and there's a certain limit that the Giants will have to set on what they'll give him. I think more important than the actual money is the length of the contract. It simply can't be more than 2 years. You don't want to make that kind of commitment to an older player who has had years of failure in the past, especially when you have a young player who looks about ready to take over his primary position. But it would make no sense for Huff to agree to just a 1 year deal. We can only hope that Huff's desire to stay with the club that brought him so much joy this year will be able to sway him just enough towards taking a little less. But if a noticeably better offer is on the table, the player, quite fairly, almost always takes it. I worry that tempting contract will be on the table. But if it is, the Giants would do very well to say no, and not match it.

Giants Free Agent Profile: Juan Uribe

Juan Uribe is so easy to love. The huge home runs. The jazz hands. The voice that can barely be understood. But now he's a free agent and it's entirely possible that we won't see the postseason hero in a Giants uniform again.

When thinking about Uribe as a free agent, my first thought was that I'd love to have him back...as a utility infielder. For the last 2 years, the Giants have signed him to be a utility guy, but he's mostly been a starter because of injuries to guys like Edgar Renteria and Freddy Sanchez and ineffectiveness from Pablo Sandoval. He's a good option off the bench because he can play 3B, SS, and 2B and plays them well defensively. But mostly I didn't feel like he should be a starter because his offensive numbers seemed a little underwhelming. Uribe will always be a guy who can hit a ball really, really far but he's kind of an all or nothing guy. He doesn't hit for high average and doesn't walk very much, so his on-base percentage (OBP) is always pretty low. In fact, his OBP of .329 (which isn't very good) in 2009 was the highest of his career. His plate discipline is terrible (he had a pretty bad O-Swing % of 36% this year) and he strikes out a lot.

It should also be noted that Uribe's 2009 was, in many respects, better than his 2010. Sure his HRs and RBIs went way up, but the things that matter like OBP, SLG, OPS, and wOBA all went down in 2010. He had 150 fewer plate appearances in 2009, but still his numbers were better across the board. Coming off of that 2009 year, all he got was a 1 year/$3.25 million dollar deal. Now after a worse year, he's likely to get, at the minimum, a 2 year/$12 million deal. Because of a weak free agent shortstop class and improved home run numbers, the Giants or any other team may be overpaying a player who may already be declining.

But a quick look at 2010 major league shortstops makes me wonder if Uribe is the Giants' best option. Basically, there aren't very many good ones and Juan Uribe was probably one of the top 6 or 7 shortstops in all of baseball in 2010. He was certainly better than any other shortstop available now. The only guy who I'd rather have that might be available is Stephen Drew, and that probably won't happen. Also, there is no one in the minors who is close to being able to contribute except maybe Brandon Crawford, who has a long way to go offensively. Uribe is probably the best option the Giants have unless they can swing a deal for Drew.

The Giants are, like many teams, the victims of a weak shortstop market. Good shortstops are hard to come by and as a guy who has a lot of power and is good defensively, Uribe is an okay option at the bottom of the order. He's just not great, and the Giants should be looking to upgrade offensively at any position they can. But if there are no upgrades, I think I've made myself okay with giving him a 2 year/$12 million deal, but I'd be hesitant to go any higher than that. So there are still many questions. Can he get more than $6 million per year from another team? It wouldn't surprise me. Could he get more than 2 years from another team? Again, it wouldn't surprise me. But as time goes by it's looking the Giants may NEED Juan Uribe. Or else...Stephen Drew? Oh baby. Or more likely, Orlando Cabrera? Alex Gonzalez? Mike Fontenot? Edgar Renteria? Brandon Crawford? Yikes.

As always, your thoughts and comments are welcome and appreciated.

Giants Free Agent Profile: Pat Burrell

This week, we'll look at 3 current free agents that all played a large part in bringing a World Series trophy to San Francisco. Today's player is Pat Burrell.

Burrell had a miserable World Series, failing to make contact with the ball most of the time. This shouldn't take away from the productive season he had at the plate for the Giants when he was acquired in June. Burrell carried the team at times, being one of the most patient batters in the lineup, and hit some of the more memorable HRs of the 2010 season. Burrell's resurgence in San Francisco came after nearly 1.5 horrid years in Tampa Bay as a DH. So the question becomes: which is the real Burrell? As usual, it's probably somewhere in the middle.

Burrell was the first overall pick by Philadelphia in 1998 and made his debut in 2000. From 2000-2004 he was off and on, ranging from average to great to below average. In 2002, he was good enough for a 146 OPS+, only to come back the next season and post a 90. Burrell then posted 4 straight consistently good seasons from 2005 to 2008, with an average 126 OPS+. It's possible that this offensive production had something to do with the emergence of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the Phillies lineup (having good hitters around you CAN make you a better hitter, because all hitters are better when other men are on base), but that effect is likely minimal. He was a very dangerous hitter in Philly, and part of their World Series team in 2008.

Burrell has always been a classic 3 true outcomes guy. He has good power, a good eye, and strikes out a lot (players with good plate discipline strike out more often because they get into deep counts, but they make up for it usually with the walks). He also played pretty poor defense in left field for Philly. This is why he seemed like an obvious DH option for an AL team as a free agent after 2008. And that's exactly what happened, when Burrell signed with the team he had just beaten in the World Series, the Tampa Bay Rays. And nothing went right in Tampa. His walks and strikeouts went slightly in the wrong directions, but it was mostly his sudden inability to hit the ball well that was a problem. His power was cut in half, and his average dipped about 40 points, bringing his OBP along with it. And when his struggles continued in 2010, Tampa Bay had no choice but to get rid of him. So the Giants picked him up, brought him to the National League, and suddenly Pat Burrell was once again Pat Burrell. The idea is Burrell "can't" DH, that he has to play in the field to hit. A similar player who is a free agent this winter, Adam Dunn, is a perfect candidate to DH for an AL team, but supposedly is hesitant, perhaps because he just has to be a butcher in the field to be able to mash in the box. It pains me to think this is true, but it's something many fans and commentators have accepted. When Burrell regained his stroke with the Giants, it likely had a lot more to do with facing a somewhat weaker league (same could be said of Aubrey Huff). Either way, there was a difference between his performance in the NL and AL.

But can we expect him to continue that next year? Not as a starter, I believe. Burrell had positive UZR numbers in 2010, but his whole career points to him being a bad left fielder. A full season in 2011 would likely see that. And while Burrell hit very well for the Giants in the regular season, his numbers do show a decline from his prime years in Philly. His strikeout numbers are about the same, but his walk numbers are down, although still good. One of the numbers that surprised me was his O-swing percentage (swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone). Most of his time in Philly, he was around 13-16%. Last year in Tampa, it was 23%, and this season with the 2 teams he rose to 24.5%. I'm not educated enough to interpret what this means exactly, but it certainly isn't positive, and could hint at a decline that is occurring.

Still, we know Burrell is patient at the plate, and that's why I think he is a fine candidate for a bench role with the Giants, which is mostly what has been reported so far. Going against the notion that he has to play everyday in the field to be effective, I think a limited role could help keep Burrell fresh as he gets older. The Giants might end up with an outfield next year that focuses on matchups and platoons, and Burrell is a guy who could start when it is advantageous, and be a dangerous threat on the bench late in games. Going back to his patience, I think that quality is one of the most important for a pinch hitter (it's important for everyone, really). Since the pinch hitter will often be hitting in the 9th spot of the lineup, the chances of him coming up with the bases empty are greater, since the hitters in front are less likely to get on base. Therefore, the pinch hitter often needs to be the one to start a rally, rather than drive in the runs. It is somewhat strange to have an outfielder on the bench who can only play left field, and not very well, but the Giants have a few more options than most teams, because Mark DeRosa is an infielder and corner outfielder.

Because of the concerns that still linger from his days in Tampa, and the horrendous showing he had in the World Series, Burrell is not likely to be offered multiple years the way Aubrey Huff is. He is from the Bay Area, grew up a Giants fan, and just won the World Series. And he has said he'd accept a smaller role. If the Giants want Burrell, I think they have him, for not too much of a commitment. The larger question is whether his University of Miami teammate Huff will stay. As insignificant as it might be, the 2 of them brought a lot of chemistry to the team, and would be a lot happier if they were together (I know this is starting to sound "weird"). But Huff is a player for another day, so check back this week for posts about him and Giants postseason hero Juan Uribe.

The Case Against Dan Uggla

As of now, Dan Uggla's name is not really being connected to the Giants. But the Giants have had rumored interest for a couple of years now and all of a sudden Uggla is in the news. It's being reported that Uggla turned down a 4 year/$48 million extension from the Marlins mostly because he wants a five year deal worth something around $58 million. Just a couple of months ago, when I was thinking of potential Giants' lineups in 2011, or rosterbating, as we baseball types like to call it, Uggla was one player I wanted. Now, the Giants have Cody Ross, who is best friends with Uggla, and a report from a couple of months ago said Ross was telling him how much he loved playing for the Giants and how Uggla should join him in San Francisco. That combined with the Giants' need for offense and a middle infielder has Giants fans wanting Uggla. But I've settled on the idea that trading for or signing him in free agency next year would NOT be a good idea for many reasons.

Uggla would be a lot more valuable if he was good defensively, but he's not. In his career he's only had two UZR scores above average: 5.5 in his rookie year, 2006, and 0.7, which is barely above average, in 2008. Otherwise he's always been a very bad defender, finishing with UZR scores of -9.9 and -7.6 in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The stats suggest he will not be able to stay at second base as he gets older, which is a problem. Uggla's value comes from being a great hitting 2nd baseman. In 2010, he had a career high .877 OPS and his OPS has never dipped below .800. Those are very good numbers for a second baseman. But if he's forced to move to first base or left field, he's a good hitter but not a GREAT hitter. So, if the Giants were to acquire Uggla, they'd have a terrible defensive 2nd baseman for the first couple of years and then just an okay-hitting 1B or LF for the next few years. And that's assuming his offensive production doesn't drop off drastically as he ages, which is a real possibility.

Uggla's contract demands coupled with his age would also have to be considered concerning. He is already 30 years old and will be 31 on Opening Day 2011. And he wants a 5 year deal worth about $12 million per year? I'm not necessarily saying Uggla doesn't deserve it. He's been one of the best offensive second basemen in the game for a few years now. But that just would not be a good long-term investment for the Giants. Not to mention the fact that the Giants probably don't even have the money to pay Uggla because they are already financially burdened by the terrible long-term investments in Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand.

If the Giants were to trade for Uggla now, they'd probably have to give up a good starting pitcher (Sanchez?) and a pretty good prospect. Then they'd have to give him the huge contract extension that he wants. Do not want. If they wait to sign him in free agency next year, they have a 32 year old second baseman who is still bad defensively, whose best offensive years are probably behind him, and he still wants that big contract. Do not want.

Dan Uggla is tempting. In the first couple of years of a deal, he'd be a huge help for the offense. And hey, if Cody Ross can convince him to sign next year for 4 years and $20 million, I'm all for it. But that won't happen. Ultimately, it would be a bad idea. Whether it's this year or next year, just say no to Dan Uggla.

As always your comments, opinions, and disagreements are always welcome in the comments section.