The Waiver Wire

So the Trade Deadline is over, it's gone. But you can still make trades. Mack, please will you tell us more? Why, I'd love to!

Now, trades have to be done through the waiver wire, but it's a little more complicated than usual. Teams have to claim players, good teams have to wait their turn behind the bad teams to claim, and there's a time limit for completing the trade. Also, if a player from the National League is put on waivers, the NL teams have a chance to claim him before the AL, and vice versa. Oh, and if no team claims a player through waivers, that player can be traded to any team. I won't completely describe it to you, because you can read Schulman's pretty clear description right here.

I'm sure you know the player everyone talks about the Giants claiming: Adam Dunn. Supposedly, he's already been put on waivers, so a trade would have to happen sometime in the next 3 days. It makes a lot of sense. The Giants reportedly had interest in Dunn before the non-waiver Trade Deadline and even though they are the second best team in the NL, they could have a good shot at claiming him. No other NL team was linked to him as much as the Giants, so I'm not sure any other contenders would all of a sudden have interest in him. Maybe the Dodgers would want to claim him to block him from getting to the Giants, but then they'd run the risk of having to take on his salary, something they won't want to do while their owners are going through an ugly divorce.

Here's the thing, even if the Giants get to claim Dunn, I'm not sure I see it happening. The Nationals were asking for a huge package for him, which is ridiculous considering he's a free agent after this year. I doubt they would be willing to take a lesser offer now; they seem intent on trying to sign him to an extension in the offseason or letting him go and taking the draft picks. I don't think they'd all of a sudden just want to get rid of his salary. And even though I said the Giants might have a good shot at claiming Dunn, you never know. There will be 14 teams with a chance to claim him before the Giants.

If the Giants don't get Dunn I'm afraid Sabean will try to improve the offense by claiming someone like Jose Guillen and the Royals would just let us take him. Gross. I don't mean to be a downer, but it's difficult to see the Giants getting Dunn. But, let's humor ourselves for a second. What if the Nats were willing to take back less because they wanted to get rid of Dunn's salary? What would you give up? I'd say no to including Belt, Wheeler, or any of the major league rotation at this point, but I'd consider a deal centered around Thomas Neal. I know some people don't like Dunn because of his defense and wouldn't want to give up a prospect like Neal for him. But Dunn's defense is actually pretty average at first base and I'm just not convinced Neal is going to be more than an OK player. But tell us what you'd give up or talk about anything else from this post in the comments section. Nothing better than a little rosterbation.

Adam Dunn is disgusted that he has to play for the Nationals and not the Giants.

2010 Trade Deadline Recap

So much for this.

The 2010 trade deadline came and went, and Brian Sabean may have helped the team a bit, and probably didn't hurt it much at all, but once again failed to be one thing: creative. In fact, Sabean hasn't been creative since the Matt Williams/Jeff Kent trade. When I say creative, I mean pulling off a trade like the Dodgers did in 2008 when they acquired Manny Ramirez for Andy LaRoche, a move that sent them to the NLCS that year. Or perhaps a trade like the Padres pulled off today, getting Ryan Ludwick for a couple minor leaguers. Both of these moves have in common the fact that they were 3 team deals. It certainly seems like if you want to get proven talent for cheap, 3 team deals are the way to go. In the Dodgers case, they were able to get Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay's trade value, because Pittsburgh sent Bay to the Boston. San Diego, meanwhile, took advantage of a very strange move by the Cardinals. More on that later. The Giants were rumored to be in a possible 3 team trade with the Blue Jays and D Backs today, but nothing ever came of it, and it makes you wonder if "possible" means a lonely phone was ringing in Brian Sabean's office, begging to be answered.

What did the Giants end up doing, since they didn't get Jose Bautista, Adam Dunn, or Jayson Werth? They got Javier Lopez, a sidearm lefty-specialist. Also Ramon Ramirez, some relief guy from Boston. That's it. A couple "whatever" acquisitions.

To get Javier Lopez, the Giants sent Joe Martinez and John Bowker to Pittsburgh. I could care less about Joe Martinez. He's got a 2 WHIP in the big leagues, albeit in very limited innings. John Bowker's major league numbers are also pretty dismal, but his AAA numbers the past 2 years are fantastic. Taking into consideration that he plays in the Pacific Coast League, a notoriously easy league to hit in, Bowker's numbers in Fresno are still appealing. That doesn't mean I think he is going to hit in the big leagues. But I feel his trade value could have been much better used as the 3rd part in a package for a big hitter, as opposed to half a package for an average at best reliever.

Javier Lopez's left arm coming out of the bullpen could definitely help this team, but I don't see him as the reliever that the Giants needed. His ERA looks nice, but we know that ERA is a ludicrous stat to use to judge a relief pitcher. His WHIP, 1.48, is not good. Neither is his K/BB ratio, which is under 1.5. Lopez doesn't strike me as a pitcher that Bruce Bochy is gonna give a lot of innings to. It's going to be strictly a lefty specialist role. In that case, Lopez DOESN'T replace Jeremy Affeldt or Dan Runzler while they are on the DL. So what was point of getting him exactly?

Ramon Ramirez was gotten for minor leaguer Daniel Turpen, a player I know nothing about and will not speak of. Ramirez has been in the Boston pen the last couple years. Earlier he was in Kansas City. In those 3 years, he put up some okay numbers. But is he really more talented than soon-to-be-gone Denny Bautista or Santiago Casilla? He has just as much a chance of causing 8th inning weirdness as they do. Well, maybe he's a little better. He has been pitching in the AL East the past 2 years. It's an okay pickup, but it doesn't change much.

The Padres and Dodgers were a lot more active at the deadline. The Padres acquired Miguel Tejada, a meaningless pickup, getting a player who just can't hit or field well anymore. But then they were able to get outfielder Ryan Ludwick from the Cardinals, in a 2 team deal with the Indians, in which the Padres sent prospects to Cleveland and St. Louis, and St. Louis got starter Jake Westbrook. San Diego got a good hitter in Ludwick, with an OPS of .827 this year, just below his career average. But we'll see how he hits in Petco Park without Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the lineup.

The Dodgers made 3 trades before the deadline. They got Scott Podsednik to play left field while Manny Ramirez is injured. Okay. Scott Podsednik is having an okay year, but he's old and he sucks. In short, he's Dave Roberts. The Dodgers also picked up Octavio Dotel for their bullpen, in exchange for James McDonald and Andrew Lambo. Kind of a "whatever" move. Dodger fans, actually, are disappointed to see James McDonald go. The most interesting trade they made was giving Chicago Blake DeWitt and a pair of minor leaguers for Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot. On the surface, it looks like a good deal, to get a 2 month rental of a good lefty starting pitcher, for a 2nd baseman that wasn't really doing anything all year. But one visit to this dodgers blog tells us the other side of the story. The Dodgers got a good pitcher, but one they probably didn't need, and they downgraded at 2nd base to do it. Blake DeWitt isn't great at all, but he's only 24, and has okay minor league numbers. Ryan Theriot is 32, he's gonna cost some money next year, and he's TERRIBLE. Dodger fans seem to view this trade deadline not as the team improving for a run to the playoffs, but getting older and worse for next season. Sounds pretty good to me.

The Value of Prospects in Trades

As you probably already know, it's trading season in baseball. Yesterday we posted a Trade Deadline Preview, and today we're going to focus specifically on minor league prospects and the value they have in trades.

When teams are trading away their proven major league hitters, what do they normally want in return? Prospects. Everybody loves prospects. They are young, cheap, and have the potential to be great someday. Prospects are the most valuable commodities in a trade in baseball. Teams want them and teams don't want to give them up. But to get something good, you have to give up something good, and many times there is a reluctance to trade prospects because of the potential they have.

I understand the reluctance. Even I am fascinated by the draft and the potential of minor league players and I think developing a deep farm system should be a top priority for teams. I understand how exciting it can be to think about how a prospect will impact your team in a few years. But one of the benefits of having a deep farm system is that it also gives you so much more ammo to improve your big league team through trades. The key word with prospects is potential. It's important to realize that prospects are unproven players at the major league level. No matter how good their numbers in the minors are, they are no guarantee. They do have value, but they shouldn't be a deal breaker if it means acquiring a proven, game-changing major league player.

It was amazing to me that about a month ago over at McCovey Chronicles, there was a thread on the topic of trading Prince Fielder for Jonathan Sanchez and Thomas Neal, and the overwhelming majority did NOT want to do that trade for the Giants. Now, there are other concerns about acquiring Prince Fielder, mostly his weight and contract status, but it seemed that most people would trade him for Sanchez, they just didn't want to include Thomas Neal. Neal is probably one of the Giants top 3 prospects along with Brandon Belt and Zack Wheeler, but he's struggled so far in Double-A and is high prospect status is mostly based on the HUGE numbers he put up in single-A. Last year he hit 22 home runs with a 1.010 OPS, but this year he has a .779 OPS. Double-A is a much tougher league and maybe he needs another year to adjust, but he was also a 36th round draft pick. I don't know the success rate of 36th round draft picks, but I can tell you it's not good. So, it seemed like Giants fans didn't want to trade for one of the Top 15 hitters in baseball who has proven himself because they wanted to hold onto a prospect struggling in Double-A. I do really like Neal, but this is a case of overvaluing prospects based on what they MIGHT do in the future.

To show how much of a non-guarantee prospects are, we can look at some trades that involved "top prospects" at the time. You know who the Mets had to trade to get Johan Santana? Top prospect Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey were traded to the Twins. Gomez is now a terrible No. 8 hitter for the Brewers, Philip Humber is a 27 year old pitcher struggling in AAA, Guerra is also struggling in AAA, and so is Mulvey. So, the best player out of that group is probably Gomez because he at least plays good defense, and the Mets got one of the top pitchers in baseball. All of those prospects were considered to be pretty good, but none of them ever worked out. In the same year, we can look at the deal that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers for a package of 6 prospects, the main ones being "top prospects" Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Maybin has bounced between AAA and the big leagues for a couple of years now and hasn't really shown anything in the big leagues. Miller is a 25 year old pitcher struggling in AAA. None of the other prospects worked out either. Both of these trades show you how prospects are never a sure thing and there shouldn't be such an unwillingness to trade them for good, proven major league players that can help a team win a World Series now.

Obviously, different prospects have different values. If you're going to trade your No. 1 prospect and one of the best prospects in baseball, you need to be getting something really, really good back in return. Guys like Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner were pretty much untouchable to me, but Thomas Neal is not nearly the prospect that those guys were. It's all about maximizing the value of prospects. I might be reluctant to trade Brandon Belt because he's dominated minor league pitching in just his first year of professional baseball. But I'd trade him for one of the top hitters in baseball. I would include Thomas Neal in a trade for Fielder but I wouldn't necessarily want to trade him for 2 months of Jayson Werth. I wouldn't want to trade a top 5 prospect in our system like Tim Alderson for Freddy Sanch...oh, wait that already happened. We now know that Alderson is no good, as he's struggling in A ball, but he had value that probably could've gotten something better than Freddy Sanchez in return and the Giants didn't maximize that value.

The point is, the art of evaluating prospects is tricky. They are completely unknown, unreliable, unproven, uncertain, whatever you want to call it. More often than not, prospects won't pan out. Some prospects you trade might go on to have great careers with other teams, but if it means that you acquire a proven hitter that could help you win just 1 World Series, it should all be worth it. Being reluctant to trade unproven players with potential for proven, game changing hitters in the major leagues just doesn't make a lot of sense.

Giants Trade Deadline Preview

The trade deadline is less than a week away, and with the Giants 3 games back in the division and leading the wild card, it's pretty clear that a move or two will be made to improve the team. With the injuries to Dan Runzler and Jeremy Affeldt, and the overall shoddy performance of the bullpen recently, talk of dealing for a reliever has been hot. But it's hard to really know which relievers are available out there, or how good they are. Plus, middle relievers are boring. So while I hope the Giants can patch up their bullpen, my eye is still on the offensive upgrades they could make before the deadline. Here are names that the Giants have been tied to, along with my opinion on them, and what it might take to get them.

Note: The stats listed are as follows - BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and wOBA. wOBA is courtesy of fangraphs.com. It is a stat that attempts to weigh all offensive outcomes with their proper value, to show the overall offensive output of a player. The number value is calculated to be on the same scale as OBP. For instance, a .400+ wOBA would be considered an MVP type season. Babe Ruth has the all time highest career wOBA, .510.

Adam Dunn - .281 / .369 / .565 / .935 / .396
If Washington will trade Adam Dunn for Jonathan Sanchez plus prospects, the Giants should do it. Here's why: unlike Fielder or Werth, it appears that Dunn would be willing to sign a contract extension rather than enter the market this winter. Dunn has been one of the most underrated sluggers of the past decade. He was a butcher in the outfield with Cincinnati, killing his overall value in the past, but he has been much more average at 1st base this year. With his hitting ability, you really wonder why an American League team didn't sign him as a DH in 2009.

Josh Willingham - .273 / .401 / .479 / .880 / .391
Willingham is a very attractive player. His OBP, in relation to his BA, is nothing short of arousing. At 31, he's in fact older than his teammate Dunn, but he isn't a free agent next year. His offense is pretty consistent year to year. Would I give up the Dunn package for Willingham? I'm not sure. He had a red hot month of May, and since then his power has dropped.

Jose Guillen - .273 / .334 / .460 / .794 / .347
Before he was sidelined for the rest of the season, David DeJesus was one of the names most often linked to the Giants. Looking back now, it would have been nice to get DeJesus if the deal didn't include Jonathan Sanchez. He'd have been great hitting behind Andres Torres in the 2-hole. Now fellow Royal Jose Guillen is on the Giants' radar. I'm against such an acquisition, really no matter what it costs. Guillen's power numbers this year are a little intriguing, but what's the point when you already have Pat Burrell, who gets on base much more efficiently? He's no real upgrade on defense, and he has a history of clubhouse problems. This would be a pointless acquisition.

Prince Fielder - .262 / .399 / .506 / .904 / .394
It's going to be pretty much impossible for the Giants to acquire Fielder, but it's still fun to think about. They won't trade Cain or Lincecum for him, and they shouldn't. They should trade J. Sanchez/Bumgarner and prospects for him, but they won't, and it's unlikely the Brewers would be satisfied with that. I'm surprised by people that think Jonathan Sanchez is worth more than even just 1.5 years of Prince Fielder. Try naming 10 hitters under 30 in baseball that are better than Fielder. Hell, forget the under 30 part. It can't be done.

Corey Hart - .292 / .349 / .568 / .917 / .389
Corey Hart is the name most linked to the Giants this year. His recent injury is very minor apparently, so he's still on the trading block. Hart hasn't cooled down from his great first half, and you can't deny his offensive production this season. I'm wary of giving up anything good for him though, because of his 2 previous seasons, in which he OPS'd .759 and .753. To be fair, in 2007 he had a year comparable to this season. But he's just not a sure thing offensively like other players on this list. And his defense, contrary to popular belief, is not very good. Definitely not worth Jonathan Sanchez.

Jorge Cantu - .260 / .309 / .412 / .721 / .315
Cantu is probably the worst player on this list that the Giants are interested in. He would be a DOWNGRADE from the players he'd be replacing. Nothing about him is interesting or good. He will not help this team. It's disturbing that he's being mentioned in Giants' rumors recently.

Luke Scott - .296 / .363 / .576 / .939 / .402
Luke Scott is the most interesting name on this list. He's really under the radar, and has been his entire career, but this year he is just as productive as anyone the Giants have been linked to. He's the left-handed bat they are looking for, and his above-average but unspectacular previous seasons make him cheaper than Dunn or Fielder. The Orioles also have a lefty reliever, Will Ohman, that the Giants are interested in. A package deal of both could be very helpful.

Derrek Lee - .251 / .338 / .391 / .729 / .323
Lee will be a free agent after the season, when he will be 35. He is the definition of rental, because it's unlikely the Giants would want to resign him. Lee has had a few great offensive seasons, but also a lot of simply good ones. I don't see the point in acquiring Lee and banking on him turning it around, when the players he would be replacing (Burrell, Ishikawa) are performing better this year. Another name that has been mentioned for the Giants in connection to Lee is SS Ryan Theriot. That is absurd. I have no idea how Theriot could possibly help the Giants. He has as LITTLE power as anyone in the NL. He sucks. How do people come up with this stuff?

Lance Berkman - .236 / .360 / .420 / .781 / .345
Where I don't see the upside in Derrek Lee, I do in Lance Berkman. He's having his worst season ever, but the guy has been one of the best sluggers of the past decade. This is the kind of rental I would approve of, as long as it didn't cost the Giants too much. I could see him raising his performance on a contending team. Unfortunately, Berkman hates AT&T Park. Maybe former teammate Aubrey Huff could convince him it's not as much of a pitcher's park as he thinks.

Jayson Werth - .286 / .379 / .506 / .885 / .382
Werth is a very good player. He walks, he hits for power, and he plays defense well. He's a free agent this offseason, so his bat can be gotten for cheaper than usual from the Phillies. However, is he worth the contract he'll ask for this winter? No, probably not. So if the Giants want to trade for Werth, they have to ask themselves: do we want to trade for just 2 months of him, can we resign him, and is he worth resigning?

Jose Bautista - .242 / .355 / .548 / .903 / .386
Bautista would seem like a good pickup for a team needing offense. His numbers this year are very similar to Adam Dunn's, and he has more positional versatility than Dunn. Here's the problem: Dunn has a career OPS of .905. Bautista's is .758. Before his offensive explosion this year, the dude was simply not good. A below average player. It's really quite stunning how well he's hitting this year. And it's very likely that at some point he will regress. And regress a lot. Take a chance on him if he's cheap, but he's not worth anything valuable.

Adam LaRoche - .255 / .331 / .450 / .781 / .340
LaRoche is almost as much of a non-difference maker as Jorge Cantu. I worry that he's exactly the kind of left-handed bat that will shrivel at AT&T Park. His defense is annoying to watch. On the other hand, his teammate Kelly Johnson is very interesting, if only we didn't have the singles hitter installed at 2nd base. It'd also be nice to have a young shortstop, and Stephen Drew, while not helping this year, would fit the bill. After the Dan Haren trade, Arizona's front office has shown that they WANT to be used and abused. They're asking for it. Let's steal some of their guys for next to nothing. Do they know Kevin Pucetas has a .698 W-L percentage?

Carlos Zambrano - 55.2 IP, 5.66 ERA, 1.689 WHIP, 2.12 K/BB, 1.0 HR/9
Carlos Zambrano is having a terrible year for his standards, but I never felt it was bad enough for the Cubs to move him to the bullpen. Now he's persona non grata in Chicago, and available for any team that wants to risk dealing with his temper and the $44 million left on his contract. It has been suggested that the Giants could swap Aaron Rowand for Big Z, as Rowand is another player not living up to his contract. I believe Zambrano, as a former ace, has a lot more value than Aaron Rowand. If the Giants trade one of their starters for a bat, they'll need someone to fill that spot. Zambrano could be the one. Sure his numbers this year are bad. But there's nothing wrong with having a former ace who is 29 as your 5th starter. Think of Joel Pineiro. Carl Pavano. Pitchers can always have comebacks.